U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#271

Post by JshWright » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 3:18 PM UTC

RHSeeger wrote: post #116

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

It might help to remember that a recession is economic decline over a period of time, so a steep decline over a very short period is not considered a recession. As we move into a longer period of time (in the past, the rule was two quarters, but that doesn't seem to be a "rule" of the definition anymore), it starts to officially be considered a recession. So it's not that it was being dismissed as not significant bef…

> It might help

How would that help...?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#272

Post by empath75 » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 3:18 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #145

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

> They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted effort by every school district to make up for lost time.

Left behind who, exactly? Everyone is out of school.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#273

Post by RankingMember » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 3:18 PM UTC

yters wrote: post #217

RankingMember wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The essential motivation for people to want to feed their families/pay bills is completely logical, but it's important to keep in perspective that the virus doesn't care about any of these things. We don't need to look too far back in history to see that ending isolation in a pandemic too early can have huge consequences (much bigger than an economic slowdown/unemployment).

It's not clear how bad things would actually be without the lockdown. There is a continuum, and I'm sure there is a much happier medium than what we currently have.

My question then is what half-measures would be preferred here that would've still flattened the curve? When you're in the middle of a pandemic, I think it makes sense to err on the side of doing too much to stem the tide versus burning time and energy trying to feather the dial to get that needle perfectly balanced between physical and economic health. Perhaps more bluntly put, I'd rather people be alive and on unemployment than gainfully employed and dead. (And yes, there's a whole other discussion to be had about the efficiency or lack therof of getting money out to people. We could and should do a lot better.)

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#274

Post by ceejayoz » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 3:18 PM UTC

londons_explore wrote: post #6

Thats 4.8% annualized. The real figure is 1.17% for 3 months. It's quite impressively small really, considering everyone is sitting at home, and many aren't working at all.

That's a weird way of doing the numbers.

If I get murdered in December, it's not super helpful to note that I was 92% alive on average that year.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#275

Post by replicant182 » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 3:19 PM UTC

buboard wrote: post #204

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

So, how is it that people employed in essential businesses have not become rich in this pandemic? After all they are in high, crucial demand and could/should command better wages than programmers at this time. Sure, some of those raises would increase the price of goods, but that would be offset by hefty UBI checks to everyone. How is it that people who endanger their lives working in supermarkets don't get raises, b…

Because essential doesn't mean hard to replace or highly skilled. It sucks and I wouldn't want to do their job but enough people are willing to at that wage.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#276

Post by usaar333 » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 3:19 PM UTC

ISL wrote: post #262

usaar333 wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The trailing (!) S&P P/E is greater than 20 right now. The Fed is supporting prices above their historical mean/median of 15. It makes zero sense, from a financial standpoint, unless the market is pricing in substantial inflation. No, it's just pricing in low returns across all asset classes (to simplify, low interest rates) - assets are priced by excess returns not absolute. There's nothing unreasonable about a P/…

A fair point. It is paradoxical that a sputtering economy can make equities worth more cheeseburgers, rather than fewer, but I see the logic. At some point, given the choice between a low-yielding equity and a cheeseburger, I'd rather have the cheeseburger.

Exactly. The thing people may also forget who have a long time horizon is that this is actually a bad thing. Returns are likely historically low going forward which is bad for your future retirement.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#277

Post by toomuchtodo » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 3:19 PM UTC

pc86 wrote: post #165

dleslie wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada is a strong counter example to your hypothesis. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_management_(Canada)

[flagged]

People bring it up because it's true.

https://www.vox.com/2014/7/1/5843316/the-case-for-canada

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#278

Post by 3131s » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 3:19 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #145

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

You should rethink that. It's the poverty that these kids and everybody else will be subjected to that will have a much larger impact. If every one of these kids were sitting at home in a financially secure household, I guarantee you they'd all be fine.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#279

Post by logfromblammo » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 3:19 PM UTC

CodeMage wrote: post #231

aphextron wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

>The bar (which is already dismally low) will have to be lowered further for them to graduate, and how/when will it ever be raised back again? You don't have to lower the bar. There are other options. There is no fundamental law of physics that says a generation has to graduate at age X, so we -- the society -- should be perfectly able to delay that process for a year, instead of lowering the bar. That said, there's…

The longer you delay graduation past the age of legal majority, the more students will drop out and [attempt to] enter the workforce.

Not every kid is willing and able to live with their current parent or guardian after they are legally able to either move out on their own or be evicted.

It's not a law of physics, but there are a lot of pitiable kids out there who have never even caught a whiff of good fortune in their lives, and the US lacks the social sensitivity to make them feel secure enough to add another year of high school to their pile of problems.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#280

Post by Zenst » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 3:19 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #145

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

>But missing 5/8ths of a school year

Yes I'm sure many did not plan on having a snap year. Though it does seem to be the case. Looked cool in the movies, real life - not so much.

Let alone the whole financial impact upon university students whose lifelong debts they build up in education fees, will also entail the everyday costs of living as well. Most of which work summer to pay for that and now, had a real kick upon that. Now that whole aspect hasn't even been touched up and does seem to be one that needs addressing. Heck, i'm sure some parents will be impacted equally. After all if a child is effectively held back a year, then equally government support should for that child equally be extended a year beyond the normal age cut-off's.

Though I'm 50+ and no children, I'm mindful that the impact has much minutia.

May I ask you a question though - when you do get back to school after this `snap`, will your drive for learning and making the most of the class's be more, or the same as it was without this pause? I ask as I suspect many student will be more focused and keener to learn after this break as for many if you deny somebody something or remove it - they tend to appreciate what they are missing more - something we all do in many respects.