Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are infections and death tolls in the countries with much less restrictive measures an order of magnitude higher?
Yes, actually. Here's an example, probably the best natural experiment we're going to see in this context. Five times more, depending on your idea of "order of magnitude". https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-loc...
Even if we take Sweden's case at face value this is still 1/4 the multiplier that people seem to think it is. Furthermore, Sweden is pursuing a strategy of herd immunity: let people get infected so that the populace becomes immune. They should see a higher rise in deaths, but also a faster decline as the virus runs out of viable hosts. A tall, narrow spike versus a wide, shorter curve. The area under the final curve is what we're looking for.