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India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

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Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#181

Post by dharmach »

sershe wrote: post #168
arihant wrote: post #150

This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials." But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is…

What is the official end game? Are they hoping that it will be eliminated worldwide, will they continue in this mode indefinitely assuming it won't be, or do they plan to basically close the borders forever (i.e. anyone who enters has to be strictly quarantined so that the internal contact tracing regime could be relaxed)?

I think India opted to err on the side of caution. Now where is required or possible, the lockdown can be eased. Opposite strategy would have been far worse.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#182

Post by kumarvvr »

gindely wrote: post #157
kumarvvr wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC, during the lockdown, every death is to be notified to the authorities.

Is that not normally the case? The pp says that every burial or cremation requires a death certificate, and who else but the authorities has the right to issue a death certificate?

The process for getting a death certificate usually takes a couple of weeks to a month or so. And normally, for natural deaths, there is nothing to be reported to anyone.

But during lockdown, reporting is to be done immediately.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#183

Post by exhilaration »

ramraj07 wrote: post #18

I can give some ground level information. I live in a very densely populated street (total length is just two hundred meters, my guess is at least a thousand people live here). No one is dying here without others noticing. Further, there's a great amount of scrutiny into whether anyone's sick (see the reports of doctors getting beaten up even by the cops). As far as I know, no one has died in this street in a month.…

when people normally die, the first ritual is the blowing of a very loud horn in front of their house for an entire day. Haven't heard that in weeks.

Could people be hiding deaths due to the stigma around COVID? Quietly taking their loved ones' bodies out of the neighborhood for funerals?

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#184

Post by vmception »

misja111 wrote: post #97
i_have_to_speak wrote: post #2

Ah yet another cant-be-true-they're-hiding-something article? Surely they can't be doing better than developed countries? FWIW, India did implement a stronger lockdown much earlier on in the curve than other countries. State and federal authorities went lock-step in their actions, and with consistent messaging. Police enforced the lockdown at times even brutally, getting the point across to the general public. Indian…

This is something that has really struck me during the Corona crisis: the misplaced Western believe of superiority towards Asian countries. I am European and I feel embarrassed about how much arrogance is displayed by some people and governments. It started already in the beginning, when the virus was spreading rapidly in China. Reports about the failing Chinese authority were all over the place, but nobody seemed to…

Right, we can't have it both ways:

Either Asian countries are lying because they are extremely advanced in their population centers and also authoritarian, which would be the only way for it to be news.

or

Asian countries are lying because they have the exact same organizational dysfunction as every country in 'the west', and also authoritarian, in which case it isn't news.

so which is it folks, superior technology cohesive culture and leadership, or organizational dysfunction no different from the west.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#185

Post by user_50123890 »

screye wrote: post #156

Rant Alert ! My response will come off as ranty, because I am a bit annoyed. India takes strong and well executed action on lockdown. People in the West continue to loiter in the streets. ( I see it here in Boston at least, one of US's hot spots). West be like, "India's low death number is a mystery" At this point, it almost sounds like the western media is mourning the lack of deaths in India. As though to say, "the…

Hahaha people on Scandinavian social media think _South Korea_ and _Hong Kong_ are faking their case numbers and refuse to believe the virus is actually easily possible to contain.

Somehow lots of them believe their governments are acting competently and that herd immunity is "the only way to stop the epidemic".

This virus is probably the first visible sign that Western countries have fallen from their grace, and that the Asian century has begun.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#186

Post by kumarvvr »

sershe wrote: post #168
arihant wrote: post #150

This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials." But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is…

What is the official end game? Are they hoping that it will be eliminated worldwide, will they continue in this mode indefinitely assuming it won't be, or do they plan to basically close the borders forever (i.e. anyone who enters has to be strictly quarantined so that the internal contact tracing regime could be relaxed)?

What is the official end game for all the countries that have lockdown?

Have control over new infections and resulting hospitalizations so as to not overwhelm healthcare infrastructure. This is especially required in India, where a large section of the population is uneducated, lack propee facilities and live on daily wages, with little to no savings or assets.

As in South Korea, the idea is to ramp up testing so that the country can limp back to normalcy while affected areas are isolated.

Absent the strict lockdown, I dia does not have the infrastructure to handle the surge in cases.

Hopefully, the population gets immunity and effective medicines are developed to immunize or treat the disease.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#187

Post by sabujp »

mesaframe wrote: post #153
arihant wrote: post #150

This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials." But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is…

>India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. Care to provide source? >People are self policing mainly to avoid police, but they are self policing each other because nobody wants their buildings sealed. I have seen videos of people violating lockdown without fear. >There are only 85 active infections 85 infections which were caught.

all my relatives in india, incl 60+ yr old folks are using contact tracing apps. In the US people are completely ignorant about these things and there's no effort from the govt to push these apps.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#188

Post by kumarvvr »

mesaframe wrote: post #153
arihant wrote: post #150

This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials." But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is…

>India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. Care to provide source? >People are self policing mainly to avoid police, but they are self policing each other because nobody wants their buildings sealed. I have seen videos of people violating lockdown without fear. >There are only 85 active infections 85 infections which were caught.

So what if you have seen videos where people violate the lockdown?

What are you trying to say? That there is no lockdown, or that a few people violate it or that its no use to lockdown?

Violations of lockdown are happening all over the world. If you are from the USA, better worry about the 60k+counting, avoidable deaths due to avoiding a lockdown.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#189

Post by kumarvvr »

marcosdumay wrote: post #135
CivBase wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lockdown is not supposed to reduce the total number of cases; it is supposed to "flatten the curve" so those cases take a lot longer to develop. The intent is to drag the virus out for as long as possible so we can prepare our hospitals, develop more effective treatments, and get closer to a vaccine. A lockdown does not make the virus go away sooner; it prolongs it . According to the Johns Hopkins dashboard[0], Ind…

Obviously a lockdown can cause the number of cases to go down. There's no mystery here. There are many countries doing the same. Yes, it is "supposed" to flatten the curve always keeping some manageable number of people infected. So if you reduce the number of cases any further you are doing it wrong; because no, you won't extinguish the virus, you'll only prolong the lockdown.

So what do you think is the alternative?

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#190

Post by SomeoneFromCA »

jatsek wrote: post #114

There's a chance that climate is on the India's side here. "High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19" https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

There is a chance that in some regions of the world we have somewhat weaker strain of the virus.
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