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India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

bbc.com

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Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#71

Post by patall »

nnq wrote: post #50

A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!?! I mean, the US is (a) a developed country with modern health-care, (b) there is no common 'old parents living in same home with some of the adult children' situation you have in Italy + Eastern Europe, (c) there are no norms of common phy…

What I always think of if I hear this is the tallness paradox between Europe and USA. When controlling for ethnicity, the modern white person from the US is on average about 1.5 inches (4 cm) shorter than the average person from the EU. As far as I know its uncertain why exactly this is (american used to be taller until mid of the last century) but the usual suspect is class inequality the lets to poorer sanitation for poorer people which in turn are also more likely to infect richer people which leads to less growth in adolescents. But ultimately, the cause of this phenomenon in not known.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#72

Post by kumarvvr »

signal11 wrote: post #64

It's not just COVID-19 deaths, raw death numbers (as measured by death certificates, you cannot cremate/bury people without one) are down as well -- this report has some evidence, including lower business in at crematoriums[1]. This is likely due to the very stringent lockdown in India, and the somewhat underrated fact that traffic collisions and accidents kill huge numbers of people every day in India. That said, wh…

IIRC, during the lockdown, every death is to be notified to the authorities.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#73

Post by elorant »

nnq wrote: post #50

A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!?! I mean, the US is (a) a developed country with modern health-care, (b) there is no common 'old parents living in same home with some of the adult children' situation you have in Italy + Eastern Europe, (c) there are no norms of common phy…

Well US has an obesity problem and this is considered to worsen Covid effects.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#74

Post by kumarvvr »

astatine wrote: post #3

It is mainly with a sense of relief (rather than disbelief) that I watch the progression of numbers daily. The lockdown was early and quite stringent and has definitely made a difference. The most stringent lockdown has little chance of being executed effectively in India and there are innumerable cases of people cheerfully ignoring or doing so in desperation. Regardless, the awareness of COVID-19 is extremely high,…

Yup, there is a very large percentage of the population, even in rural areas, that are awareof the danger posed.

Politicians, including the PM have clearly and multiple times explained their actions in a very clear and lucid language. Stateministers also have conveyed the same in a similar manner.

There was no tolerance on stupid questions from the beginning, and a huge emphasis has been put on scientists amd healthcare experts. Most of the experts also did not talk publicly, but advised the politicians.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#75

Post by greendesk »

nnq wrote: post #50

A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!?! I mean, the US is (a) a developed country with modern health-care, (b) there is no common 'old parents living in same home with some of the adult children' situation you have in Italy + Eastern Europe, (c) there are no norms of common phy…

There are differences in vaccine regimen too, which lead to be a statistically significant factor. (edit) The first point is in reference to the BCG hypothesis, search at MedRHiv for similar entries such as: Correlation between universal BCG vaccination policy and reduced morbidity and mortality for COVID-19"

In addition to early travel exposure, common travelling, social factors-vs-car culture, obesity and diabetes, etc.

Within Europe, the BCG hypothesis seems a differentiating factor, though further studies are necessary. The reason for the effect of the vaccine are not currently known.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#76

Post by ramraj07 »

kranner wrote: post #53
ramraj07 wrote: post #18

I can give some ground level information. I live in a very densely populated street (total length is just two hundred meters, my guess is at least a thousand people live here). No one is dying here without others noticing. Further, there's a great amount of scrutiny into whether anyone's sick (see the reports of doctors getting beaten up even by the cops). As far as I know, no one has died in this street in a month.…

I'm guessing you live in Hyderabad. Clearly your street is not a hotspot, and you really shouldn't be extrapolating from it to the rest of India. As far as people having it while being asymptomatic, that is unfalsifiable until they are tested.

Don't think I mentioned anything to generalize. Just what I observed in my city (Chennai) in my street.

What I was implying is that perhaps things did go okay in terms of slowing the spread in India: of course, there's probably more spread than is being reported, but that seems par for course everywhere.

I'm only worried that the lockdown is going to significantly affect the poorer communities worse at the expense of richer folks.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#77

Post by dennis_jeeves »

pvaldes wrote: post #36

About relative low death counts in some Asian countries by comparison with Europe or America, we must take in mind that Asian people could had been exposed in the past to a virus of Asian origin (or to a relatively similar virus strain), so they could have developed some immunity previously. I would want to include in the discussion (and this is just my opinion and wild speculation by my part, not more, not less) the…

I can agree with you about the burning forests.

Looking at the Spanish flu - it looks that if one were to account for famine, malnutrition, unsanitary conditions and other facts, it seems nothing out of the ordinary.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#78

Post by kumarvvr »

blackrock wrote: post #60
newyankee wrote: post #4

While the reported deaths may be low, the 'they are hiding something' attitude is not helpful. India cannot do the level of testing that western countries do due to the humongous population. I can very well assure you in India you cannot hide mass deaths like China. A distant relative died of cardiac arrest and the measures were so strict that in a highly social society where paying respects to a deceased is consider…

> I can very well assure you in India you cannot hide mass deaths like China. LOL.. What happens internally in India, is not my concern. But to say this, is disingenuous. Don’t you have a little Muslim rebellion going on over there? With intense media and Internet blackouts? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8256349/Indias-Musl... https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/india-restores-intern...

You say mass deaths are possible to hide, yet provide international sources of news.

I am an Indian, and let me tell you, if 10 people die, its a huge news. Its not possible to cover up anything in India.

You might point out about Kashmir, but Kashmir is a different case considering it had its own constitution and governance until very recently, and due to Pakistan sponsored terrorism, the state has stricter controls than the rest of India.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#80

Post by clort »

signal11 wrote: post #69
gspr wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Further, there's a great amount of scrutiny into whether anyone's sick (see the reports of doctors getting beaten up even by the cops). What? Why are doctors being beaten up? I don't understand.

It's very stupid, but a (very) few people see them as potential spreaders of the disease. Public health workers going into the community to find infected people have also been attacked. Also, until recently, suspected COVID patients had to be in hospital -- no home isolation allowed -- and some of these patients (or their relatives) thought that venting their anger on doctors would help. Unfortunately, the law of lar…

> a (very) few people see them as potential spreaders

One problem is that although only a very few will see it this way, other people would be cautious about being caught up in it. This could affect the way they behave because if they think that somebody died in their house from this disease then they won't want to advertise that at all (eg by blowing horns) in case they were subsequently targeted. The fear is likely worse than the reality but behavior like this is driven more by fear.

However I can understand that ramraj07 says it seems unlikely on their street as it would surely be difficult in a close community to hide a van coming to take Auntie-ji away.

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