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India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

bbc.com

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Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#151
post #89
post #10

on the other hand, at least one newspaper in India has an article [1] titled: "India's coronavirus infection rates are among the highest in Asia" we are under lockdown for more than a month now, and in my state, there's even stricter lockdown for past few days (not even groceries/vegetable shops are open, supplies provided to some extent via government operated mobile vending, door deliveries, etc) [1] https://www.th…

Whoever wrote that article apparently has no idea what “rate” means, as they were comparing total case and death counts: > India is among the four Asian countries with at least 25,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 800 related deaths as of April 26. China, Turkey and Iran are the other three. India and China each has one fifth of world’s population ffs. The infection rate in each is tiny.

yeah, seems like a mixed bag with the wrong conclusion

they show the graphs, from which one can infer whether the infection is increasing/decreasing

but the top-5 conclusion seems to be based on total cases, which is probably not the case if rate is considered

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#152
post #50

A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!?! I mean, the US is (a) a developed country with modern health-care, (b) there is no common 'old parents living in same home with some of the adult children' situation you have in Italy + Eastern Europe, (c) there are no norms of common phy…

The US has a low rate of testing, was late to impose lockdowns (mostly; a few states were fairly proactive), and is bad at enforcing them (again, mostly). Having a leader who spent the first few weeks of the crisis on TV denying there was a problem, _while people were already dying in the US_, probably didn't help; most countries don't have that.

> some other important but unknown factor

The important factor is probably just very poor crisis management. US death rates aren't _that_ high, anyway; on paper they're low to medium vs Europe, though given that the rate of testing is lower than almost anywhere in Western Europe that's probably understated.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#153

This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials." But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is…

>India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1.

Care to provide source?

>People are self policing mainly to avoid police, but they are self policing each other because nobody wants their buildings sealed.

I have seen videos of people violating lockdown without fear.

>There are only 85 active infections

85 infections which were caught.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#154
post #55

In the state of India that I live in, at least three people have died in the hospital of very Covid-19-like symptoms, but they were not counted as Covid-19 deaths. Two of double pneumonia, both with travel history, but their tests came up negative. They were both healthy until very recently. One had arrived from the US, where the chances of community-acquiring-pneumonia are low as I gather. One of cardiac arrest, but…

We shouldn't be including deaths in the Covid-19 total just because they involve similar symptoms. Lots of other problems cause pneumonia and cardiac arrest, and you said yourself that the pneumonia patients tested negative. Apparently healthy people die suddenly all the time, sadly.

The RT-PCR test apparently has a very high false negative rate; I've read up to 30% or even 40%.

Also, they had all the other symptoms as well including fever and shortness of breath. One arrived in India with respiratory distress. The other fell ill a week after visiting a Covid hotspot -- Mumbai -- which he managed to visit despite a travel ban because he was a hotshot politician.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#155
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apologies, I read that as extrapolation. Also assumed Hyderabad as that is the fifth biggest city in size, and cases are around the same in number.

uh ... India has so many cities, how can you assume any city unless the person says?

GP did say that they lived in 1) the fifth biggest city in India, and 2) the case count was currently 570 in their city.

The fifth biggest city in India population-wise is Ahmedabad but its case count is 2378.

The fifth biggest city in India area-wise is Hyderabad whose case count is 542.

Therefore I assumed OP meant Hyderabad. Both counts are from https://www.covid19india.org/

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#156
Rant Alert ! My response will come off as ranty, because I am a bit annoyed.

India takes strong and well executed action on lockdown. People in the West continue to loiter in the streets. ( I see it here in Boston at least, one of US's hot spots). West be like, "India's low death number is a mystery"

At this point, it almost sounds like the western media is mourning the lack of deaths in India. As though to say, "there is no way a "shithole country" can ever be well prepared for a pandemic. Hopefully India gets worse, so we can tend to our wounds by saying that at least it isn't as bad as it's in India."

When a lockdown works wonders in China or Korea -> "Swift response, responsible Govt. India does the same, and it's still a mystery.

Some points

* India has the world's most drastic lockdown in order. More stringent than China at their COVID peak.

* Indian public health is at the very least experienced, (I think competent as well, but opinions there may vary) with national epidemics.

* Indians know what mortality feels like. * More fact, Indians also know what national emergencies and curfews feels like. We have had a few in the last few decades, and some have been nearly as drastic.

* India relied strongly on ICMR (it's medical research body) over WHO or the US's recommendations. That included using funding to push a lockdown far earlier into the spread than other nations, consistently recommending masks and contact tracing. On the other hand, testing and ventilator recommendations were not taken and it has worked. The death rate of COVID patients on ventilators is 88%. It is less a life saving device and more an expensive pyre. India has also been smart about running really intelligent statistical tests instead of mass testing. They randomly tested people coming in reporting pneumonia symptoms, they tested randomly sampled population and closely tracked the death rate, instead of spending 100s of millions on testing everyone. (esp. when everyone is 1 billion people) Additionally if high rates of testing only serve to better provide recommendations on distancing, mask wear and lockdowns, then India has jumped to stringent action already, making high rates of testing rather meaningless. (2 week delayed death number spikes are far more reliable for longer term decision making such as when to restart the economy)

(also, even more controversial, it doesn't help that the Indian intellectual and political left (esp. the Luthiens Delhi crowd), despises the current government, and would rather evangelize and believe in its incompetence, ever get caught giving it credit where it is due. I say this as someone who would be considered a proper social democrat in the US and is not a fan of the current US or Indian Govt.)

Is it possible that there are other reasons for why India has low Covid-19 death rates ? -> Of course it is possible. But, the pigheaded quest of the western media to find an alternative "godsent" reason to keep believing that India has an incompetent public health infrastructure is honestly quite appalling.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#157

It's not just COVID-19 deaths, raw death numbers (as measured by death certificates, you cannot cremate/bury people without one) are down as well -- this report has some evidence, including lower business in at crematoriums[1]. This is likely due to the very stringent lockdown in India, and the somewhat underrated fact that traffic collisions and accidents kill huge numbers of people every day in India. That said, wh…

IIRC, during the lockdown, every death is to be notified to the authorities.

Is that not normally the case? The pp says that every burial or cremation requires a death certificate, and who else but the authorities has the right to issue a death certificate?

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#158
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on how many people of Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi descent are dying in the UK there is no indication that people form the Indian subcontinent have some genetic resiliency or immunity to the virus.

Indian, living in India presently, who lived in the US for almost a decade. I can relate a strange experience: I was never severely bedridden by flu or viral fever in India. I caught the flu during my stay in the US one February. I was so weak I could not even sit up in a chair for more than 15 minutes, I would doze off. I was in my bed for practically 5 days, was weak for a couple of weeks afterwards. I am back in I…

Could this be related to your levels of Vitamin D. I am not a doctor but since this pandemic, I have read some articles that suggests that people with black/brown skin need a lot more exposure to the sun to get good levels of Vitamin D with the situation getting worse during winter. That coupled with your stay in a colder country could have been the reason.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#159

I’m a (foreign) American citizen staying in India and happened to arrive here a few days before lockdown started. I don’t understand how this is a mystery: India quickly locked down the entire country and going outdoors was consistently punishable by police hitting people with sticks (thankfully it seems like the brutality has eased up since the start and police are doing things like making people write sorry on the…

Did you see police beating people yourself? I have a suspicion that it was made just for camera to scare people.

‘Beaten’ for stepping out for biscuits, UP teen dies

'Eyewitnesses said the cops beat Rizwan with batons and rifle butts'

https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/coronavirus-lockdown-be...

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#160
I am not seeing the theory of Vitamin D deficiency being highly correlated with severe outcomes from Covid-19 infections being suggested in the article. Please see links below for this theory:

1) https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/rr-6

2) https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1

3) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561

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