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The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

sfmayor.org

741–750 of 893 posts

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#741
post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My friend who works at the airport in the Galapagos (GPS) was telling me that no one has gotten paid since the tourism stopped. Luckily she can work on farm, but many can't. The local animal shelter there is now out of food, and the dogs will starve if they don't somehow raise money in the next 3 days or so (@patitasgalapaguenas on instagram, you can donate here [0]). The US is struggling in many ways, but I can't he…

I'm gonna be that guy... given that people are starving, isn't immoral to ask that money be donated to keep shelter dogs alive? Surely they should just be put to sleep, no?

That's just how rich people are. "Cute" gets help, "not cute" doesn't matter. And humans are, for these most part, "not cute".

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#742
post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also sector divide. Small business owners are getting killed. PPP and EIDL will be a drop in the bucket. Mass conglomerations are coming and in 12 months we'll wonder why Amazon and Walmart and other multinational corps bought everything up.

You're right. Another issue is the age divide. Younger people: harder hit economically, less so by the virus; older people: harder hit by the virus, less so economically. This can only worsen the class fissure which had already developed along generational lines.

Younger people are less likely to die as quickly from acute respiratory failure from the virus, but if the indications of various delayed and lasting effects are at all accurate, probably are, on average, losing more QALYs to the virus, and so are arguably harder, if less obviously so, hit.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#743
post #582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah nobody understands that we can print money. It’s the easiest solution and every other country is doing it already.

Hope you’re saving now for your $10m one bedroom condo and your child’s $5m state university education.

nostromo's comment may sound like a joke but the reason why those two things in particular are inflated is the fact that the printed money is only available as a mortgage or student loan. Nobody is buying consumer goods with the printed money and therefore we don't get to see inflation (which by definition only looks at consumer spending). We might get to see "real" inflation if that printed money is used to pay for unemployment benefits or to pay salaries.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#744
post #601

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just a mathematical nit; Maryland caps unemployment at $430 per week. So adding CARES bumps that to $1030/week. It's only lasts 26 weeks, so it's worth $26780. I'm not sure if you have to pay income tax on any of this.

It’s the equivalent of a $53,500 annualized salary in terms of weekly paychecks. Also, CARES Act extends unemployment through the end of the year (39 weeks). A recent U of Wash study projected states could start easing restrictions in late May to early June. But it’s going to be a slow reopening. The concern is that if the federal government is bankrolling things, the reopening will be slower than necessary.

First of all, you pay income taxes on unemployment income. The additional $600 per week as part of the CARES act is only through July 31st. Then it reverts to just the ase amount - which is whatever percentage of your income (until it reaches a capped amount) that unemployment insurance pays out, which varies by state.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#745

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What is so magical about the word essential?" Are you a real account? Essential is essential. Food. Gas. Home goods. Infrastructure. Anything that supports essential business. Alcohol is certainly an outlier, but there are plenty of reasons for it to be essential. Alcoholics would die, for one. Black markets would spring up, for two. Gardeners are not essential. No one is going to die because they can't get their ga…

Alcoholics can go to their local Wal-Mart, Target, or grocery store. They don’t need specialty liquor stores. What about weed dispensaries, are they essential? More essential than dentists, pediatrician visits, and the accompanying vaccinations? Because the latter have all been closed. How are construction workers essential when gardeners aren’t? ‘Essential’ is in the eyes of the beholder, it seems.

I'm not convinced you're arguing in good faith, but I'll dispel the misinformation for others:

In the bay area dentists and healthcare professionals are exempt from the order. My dentist is open for emergencies 7am-7pm. If your dentist is closed, you can certainly call and complain, but it's not part of the bay area order.

I'm not sure about vaccination schedules because it's hard to google it without talk about a coronavirus vaccine, so you should contact your pediatrician about that.

Construction is also essential only, except maybe the affordable housing exemption. You can report violations on sf.gov.

Weed has legitimate medical purposes, and keeping dispensaries open is probably a combination of that and preventing a black market.

Source for most of this: sf.gov

What exactly are you talking about?

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#746

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that SIP does nothing - it's that past a certain point, the rates are what they are. San Mateo and Santa Clara counties have seen a slight increase in the number of cases last week over the previous week. Other Bay Area counties have seen a slight decrease [1]. I don't see how increased traffic/travel as we're starting to see [2] will do anything other than increase transmissions. [1] https://projects.sfchro…

You probably need to be careful with the numbers, because they're not necessarily a reflection of new cases so much as new testing.

The US has not grown capacity over the last two weeks. Its pretty much flat lined.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#747
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's scary. I was laid-off this month due to COVID-19. Luckily, I am getting paid for one more month because of the WARN Act. I've been looking, but it has been difficult since I'm competing with all the more senior co-workers and peers who were also laid-off. So how is my budget? * I know that there will be a time gap between being able to apply for unemployment and receiving it. The unemployment systems in the US a…

If you enroll in COBRA within 60 days, you can retroactively claim coverage. If you have current cashflow issues but have only minor healthcare expenses, you can wait to see if you need it. Of course before going this route, check with a reputable source.

Perhaps a nit, but COBRA is always retroactive

https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Programs-and-Initiatives/Other-Ins...

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#748

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rates staying flat rather than going up is already a success, not a sign that SIP has failed.

But if the rates stay the same, then all we're accomplishing is slowing the rate at which we reach herd immunity. If herd immunity is the strategy we're pursuing, then we should lift restrictions enough to meet hospital capacity, so we can get to herd immunity as quickly as possible and get the economy back to something approaching normal levels of activity. If the strategy is actually suppression and elimination, th…

> But if the rates stay the same, then all we're accomplishing is slowing the rate at which we reach herd immunity.

No, we're still avoiding surging past healthcare capacity, which shoots the fatality rate for both the disease itself and anything else that competes for resources with it way up. That's the point.

It's true that on some places we may not need SIP to remain in the safe zone, but one of the big problems is that we don't have the kind of surveillance that lets us even be clear what the likely course is, because we're still mostly testing only the very sick because of limited testing availability and infrastructure, which means we have no good future window, and we won't be able to restore SIP in time to prevent a surge because by the time we see it in the case numbers the infections that will take us beyond capacity will already have happened.

That's one of the reasons establishing better surveillance is one of the keys to reopening identified by (among others) the West Coast group of states coordinating on the issue.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#749

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rates staying flat rather than going up is already a success, not a sign that SIP has failed.

But if the rates stay the same, then all we're accomplishing is slowing the rate at which we reach herd immunity. If herd immunity is the strategy we're pursuing, then we should lift restrictions enough to meet hospital capacity, so we can get to herd immunity as quickly as possible and get the economy back to something approaching normal levels of activity. If the strategy is actually suppression and elimination, th…

With a two-week asymptomatic incubation period, there is basically no way to eliminate the disease just by sheltering. It's impossible to enforce that every person in the world self-isolates for 3 weeks, so as soon as we "return to normal" it will come back.

The strategy is basically, in order:

1. Reduce the rate of transmission to avoid overwhelming hospitals (which would increase the fatality of all other illnesses/injuries). When we have no reliable testing infrastructure, the only action we can take is sheltering-in-place as much as possible

2. This buys time to increase medical supply chain capacity and stockpile necessary supplies. This increases the amount of cases the system can handle, which is important when the public policy feedback loop doesn't see new cases until they're in the hospital weeks later

3. At the same time, build testing infrastructure to detect infections before they turn into uncontrollable outbreaks. This will hopefully catch cases before they get to the hospital, shortening the public policy feedback loop

4. At this point, we should be able to resume some moderate amount of activity without being completely in the dark. We will likely see a cycle of one week on, one week off, two on, two off, etc as we see how much we can control the rate of spread. This will increase herd immunity, but will likely require months to spread the infection without overwhelming our health system

5. All throughout this time, high risk populations will have to isolate as much as possible, since they cannot be infected safely. Medical companies will be working on a vaccine, but it will probably take closer to a year before they are ready for the market.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#750

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In India in particular, the lockdown has so far caused more misery than the virus itself... I mean, that's the point, right? Heart surgery hurts more than chest pain, but it's intended to prevent the heart attack.

That’s the rational calculus, yes. But humans have a really hard time balancing suffering today against hypothetical suffering tomorrow, especially when successful intervention makes it appear like the problem was never there in the first place.

Well yes, of course it's rational. Tautologically, hypothetical suffering tomorrow might not happen whereas suffering today actually is happening - in this case we have only the words of essentially discredited 'experts' (epidemiologists), many of whom are constantly bickering in public and pronouncing each others models useless or broken.

And the idea that mass lockdowns can stop the spread of virus is itself a radical, new idea that's never been tried, and which has its own cadre of experts saying it hasn't been working or is making little difference.

Given what we know now, extending a shelter-in-place order through all of May is catastrophic. It will likely trigger mass civil unrest. The virus just isn't that dangerous.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

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