Earlier quoted context omitted.
The stated goal is to decay to 1 infection per million residents so that robust contact tracing works. Back of the envelope math puts that between 6 and 18 months of continued progress of the health order to get it to this level. (60 or so in Santa Clara County ICU == ~6000 infections. ICU occupancy decaying by 40% per month; 0.6^15 months * 6000 = ~3 )
so you think 6-18 months of SIP is going to work? I think that could lead us to a dire situation. > robust contact tracing works Doesn't that rely on the individual opting in/using it? I have a feeling most people don't want the government tracing their every move (even though it already is geographically).
No, I don't. I think it's implausible. But this is what those in local public health are calling for. Granted, there's the IMHE model, which somehow fantastically thinks the virus will mostly be gone in Santa Clara County in mid-May, but it's shown very little agreement with the actual data and is nearly as bad as saying the Easter Bunny will take the virus away.
> Doesn't that rely on the individual opting in/using it? I have a feeling most people don't want the government tracing their every move (even though it already is geographically).
No, if you get the infection count low enough, you can investigate each individual case to death like Singapore has been doing it (though cases are growing beyond Singapore's ability to maintain this).