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The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

sfmayor.org

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Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#291

Post by jacquesm »

CPLX wrote: post #275
tptacek wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a statute somewhere that requires London Breed to spell anything out to your satisfaction? I don't know what California's emergency management laws look like; maybe you're right.

Does there have to be a statute to advocate for a rational, numerical based approach to public policy? You're a super smart, analytical guy. You don't see any problem with imposing extremely restrictive rules on a population of millions without even a basic attempt to quantify what your desired outcome is?

Why do you want this to be a simple problem? It isn't a simple problem, not by a long shot and erring on the side of caution seems to be the right way to play this because you are at most 4 weeks away from a serious disaster if you fuck it up. The fact that SF does ok is a result of the shelter-in-place order, without it SF would look like NYC or worse.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#292

Post by xfitm3 »

dustingetz wrote: post #289
anm89 wrote: post #221

The reddit hive mind has become terrifying. It has seriously had a tangible effect on my faith in humanity. I never got onto Twitter but I assume it's about the same.

Humanity used to be a lot worse, you just didn't have a way of knowing that because ... reddit did not exist. Reddit and social media has generally progressive effects for the same reason that increased communication between diverse people has progressive effects. Yes bad ideas spread but good ideas spread faster

It's disingenuous to say it used to be worse pre-reddit because there is no data.

I will say the Reddit community is extremely toxic. I left the site about 2-3 years ago when in my opinion it got real bad.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#293

Post by Skunkleton »

rhexs wrote: post #260
Skunkleton wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People should remember that the mortality rate for COVID-19 is under 3% _with_ medical care. If it isn’t available the mortality rate goes way up to around 20%.

Please cite your sources for this amazing claim.

Wuhan hit about 17% in the early days when their hospitals were overloaded. I though that was common knowledge? I also thought it was common knowledge that about 1 in 5 symptomatic cases require medical care.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#294

Post by jshevek »

chrisseaton wrote: post #33
marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

> The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. I don't think it was a 'meme' - if you're thinking it was just something on Facebook or something like that. It was and still is a government goal informing their policy.

Setting aside Dawkins, and looking beyond image macros, it seems to me that the meaning of 'meme', in it's common usage, can encompass the meanings of "message", "claim", "idea" and more. It's not necessarily dismissive, and can sometimes emphasize the simplicity of structure or frequency of use.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#295

Post by jacquesm »

exmadscientist wrote: post #172
maverick2007 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of curiosity because I have little to no knowledge of immunology: what do you think that means if someone that already had the disease can be reinfected? Does that have any implication on the efficacy of a vaccine?

Unfortunately, yes. Consider the common cold: yes, it does mutate fast, but the other big barrier to producing a vaccine is that immunity to it doesn't last very long at all. So if COVID-19 immunity truly doesn't last long, that's a problem. I doubt this is likely to be the case, though. Antibodies to SARS seemed to have long lifetimes (several years), and COVID is likely to be similar. It is certainly possible that…

The reason that antibodies to SARS have long lifetimes is because it is a much worse hit than COVID-19 in most cases, you can take the CFR as proof of that. Harder hit to the immune system but you survive: immunity will last longer is a good rule of thumb.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#296

Post by lanternfish »

nathanaldensr wrote: post #207
thomascgalvin wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meanwhile, data is coming out to show that coronavirus has a very low fatality risk to anyone under the age of 50, and to anyone without pre-existing health conditions. 34% of America is aged 50 and over[1]. Almost 40% of America is obese[2], which is a risk factor for COVID-19 complications[3]. > A blanket shutdown does not make any sense when the vulnerable demographic has been clearly identified. When the "vulne…

Personal responsibility must enter the equation; otherwise, you're consigning those of us who have made good decisions about our health to pay the price for those who haven't.

Why does my life, as someone who has made 'good decisions', matter more than someone's who has made 'bad decisions'. Especially when many of those 'bad decisions', like obesity, are products of socioeconomic environmental risk factors. This seems like a very privileged perspective which probably isn't very productive in managing a diverse society in times of crisis.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#297

Post by Skunkleton »

abfan1127 wrote: post #258
Skunkleton wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost none of what you said is true. This is not voluntary, there are laws which give these powers, essential businesses can stay open regardless of their size, recording breaking the law while conducting non essential business won’t help you in the supreme court, the federal government is saying lots and doing very little.

I read somewhere about a store who didn't sell "essential items", but they tried to begin selling those items and the local police prevented him from pivoting. iirc it was a small AZ town.

So you maybe read about a small town in Arizona? Ok, well I buy my water refills from a small store in the Bay Area that isn’t closed down. Do our anecdotes cancel out?

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#298

Post by dsfyu404ed »

ultrarunner wrote: post #245
anm89 wrote: post #221

The reddit hive mind has become terrifying. It has seriously had a tangible effect on my faith in humanity. I never got onto Twitter but I assume it's about the same.

I intentionally moved from reddit to HN after this same specific realization. After a few years it seemed like reddit would be a good place for hyper local info on covid, but I quickly saw the same effect— misanthropy in the face of so many people trying to do the best they could for others during hard times. It’s off topic here, but I seriously wonder what specifically caused reddit to adopt the largely toxic cultur…

Funny, I've been slowly moving more of my activity back to Reddit for the same reason. I stay away from the bigger subs though.

Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of terrible people there but they're an easy to ignore terrible. When you read something downright asinine there it's really easy to write it off as someone who's 14 and hasn't got the life experience to realize how crazy their opinions are. When you read something asinine here it's attached to a profile that says "senior dev at company X and maintainer of open source project Y" and seeing supposedly smart people be so stupid is a lot harder to rationalize.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#299

Post by rayiner »

hombre_fatal wrote: post #4

I'm lucky enough to have remote work. And I'm sure many HNers have a nice buffer of savings from their tech jobs to weather the storm or are getting paid time off. But can anyone share what it's like to not be in either of these situations? How are your rent lords handling things? I live abroad in a cheap country so I can handle zero income, but I wouldn't be able to last long if rent was $2000+/mo instead of the Yet…

In the US, the third category is being furloughed and collecting unemployment. Here in Maryland, anyone making $55,000 or below collects as much in unemployment (with the $600/week federal supplement) than they did while employed. The IT systems have done a bad job handling some new categories of claimants (people who couldn’t collect unemployment before but were allowed to under the CARES Act). So some people are waiting for checks. But others are relatively unaffected: when the stay at home orders end, they expect to get called back to their jobs.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#300

Post by cabaalis »

Skunkleton wrote: post #236
walterbell wrote: post #162

People forget that there is no law which can put everyone under house arrest. This is all done voluntarily. Why is it ok for people to shop at Walmart and not at their local small business that sells the same goods and is better equipped to enforce social distancing, with customers explicitly opting in to visit the smaller store? If a small business can protect workers and customers, and a comparable large business i…

Almost none of what you said is true. This is not voluntary, there are laws which give these powers, essential businesses can stay open regardless of their size, recording breaking the law while conducting non essential business won’t help you in the supreme court, the federal government is saying lots and doing very little.

> there are laws which give these powers

IANAL, but I know some of you are so I'm asking here. I've read that challenges to these orders will not succeed because of emergency declarations. The emergency declarations are supposedly backed by some law, correct?

Don't we have a document in the national archives that guarantees things like peaceable assembly and not prohibiting exercise of religion? Yet we have people being arrested or cited for assembling, and pastors being put under arrest for holding church? Is it the temporary nature that allows this to be done?

Regarding the law that allows this kind of stuff, how does that compare to a constitution which says "congress shall make no law ..."?

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