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The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

sfmayor.org

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Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#281

Post by bsder »

smallgovt wrote: post #155
scott_s wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen you say similar things in a few other threads, and myself and others have said, every time: the risk to everyone is that the hospitals become overwhelmed. They are not right now because of stay-at-home orders. What you think of as failure - hospitals currently low utilization - is in fact success .

What is your reaction to Sweden's COVID track? They didn't shut down daily life, and their hospitals are doing just fine. In fact, COVID cases and deaths have plateaued. Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

This is my reaction:

"This Japanese Island Lifted Its Coronavirus Lockdown Too Soon and Became a Warning to the World" https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/

Restrictions could start easing if you could manage an outbreak swiftly. This requires:

1) Enough tests that actually worked so you can SPOT an outbreak before it goes 3 weeks.

2) Enough resources in the medical system to handle an actual spike without collapsing

3) Enough protective equipment that won't disappear in the face of panic buying

This is the MINIMUM. Are we there yet?

Otherwise, you get Hokkaido.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#282

Post by nradov »

twomoretime wrote: post #220
siglesias wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a couple of flaws with this reply. 1. This doesn't appear to be a falsifiable position with respect to being overly conservative. Any action that results in the hospitals not being overwhelmed will be taken as somehow likely causing the hospitals not to be overwhelmed. It's not clear by this logic how hospital capacities are ever chosen given various uncertainties in the environment. 2. It commits a status…

> with fairly well understood vulnerabilities to various parts of the population. I don't think the virus is as well understood as you believe, which is why opening back up now may be premature. Regardless, the riskiest pre-existing conditions appear to be obesity and hypertension. 57-75% of Americans are obese according to the dedicated Wikipedia page. Also bear in mind there is considerable variance among obesity r…

The pandemic isn't going to stop anytime soon. Miracle cures are highly unlikely, and a safe vaccine is probably more than a year away. So I hope that anyone with obesity is taking this opportunity to lose weight at a safe and sustainable rate.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#283

Post by Skunkleton »

skellington wrote: post #72
j79 wrote: post #3

I told my wife that I've come assumed shelter-in-place IS in place until a vaccine has been developed. Either that, or herd immunity is to a point where going outside isn't a game of Russian roulette.

As usual, American leaders are choosing OPTION 3 which is the worst option: OPTION 1. (SWEDEN) Control spread just enough to not overwhelm the health care system, but no more than that, in order to get to herd immunity as quickly as possible. This assumes that the area-under-the-curve will be very similar to any option that spreads the time-frame out. This level of lockdown is possible to implement for long periods o…

We already missed the boat on options 1 and 2 due to various governmental incompetencies. Did you not notice that a full third of all cases globally have been in America?

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#284

Post by tmh79 »

nathanaldensr wrote: post #207
thomascgalvin wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meanwhile, data is coming out to show that coronavirus has a very low fatality risk to anyone under the age of 50, and to anyone without pre-existing health conditions. 34% of America is aged 50 and over[1]. Almost 40% of America is obese[2], which is a risk factor for COVID-19 complications[3]. > A blanket shutdown does not make any sense when the vulnerable demographic has been clearly identified. When the "vulne…

Personal responsibility must enter the equation; otherwise, you're consigning those of us who have made good decisions about our health to pay the price for those who haven't.

Solidarity must enter the equation because if you don't take care of those who are vulnerable, the economy will tank worse than it already has. People dying is expensive, and this many people dying is a lot more expensive than the cost of keeping things officially shut down.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#285

Post by in_cahoots »

yongjik wrote: post #209
marcell wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your evidence that hospitals in America in general, and in California, are anywhere near being overwhelmed? I've cited evidence which shows the opposite--they are very far from being overwhelmed.

On 3/16 San Francisco and some other cities issued the shelter-in-place order, and CA had 472 patients. Two weeks later, on 3/30, CA had 6,932 patients. That's 21% average daily increase, with an existing shelter-in-place order . With 21% daily increase, it takes 12 days to go from 10% to 100% hospital utilization. And change of policy usually takes a week or more to affect the curve. Which means, we are ~5 days away…

Shelter in place is irrelevant here, it had just been instituted and it takes roughly 10 days to go from symptoms to hospitalization.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#286

Post by BurningFrog »

amluto wrote: post #149
BurningFrog wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a lot like finishing your full 7 day medication treatment, even though you feel fine on day 3. That said, I don't know when and how the right way to wind down is, and I don't think anyone else does either. I'm glad we're doing this in a decentralized way over 50 states, so many different strategies can be tried. I would also add that we who can WFH with full wages do well to remember millions of alrea…

When you take a 7 day course of antibiotics, you are reducing your bacterial load to a level at which it is highly unlikely to bounce back from zero and, critically, the chance that it bounces back and selects for resistant strains is comfortably low. No one seriously expects any length of shutdown in the US to reduce the case count enough to eliminate COVID-19. Worse, even if we reduce the case count to an unnoticea…

I didn't mean the parallel to be so literal.

I was more saying that you probably need to wait longer than it seems you should. In part because we're dealing with exponential growth.

> Worse, even if we reduce the case count to an unnoticeably low number, we’ve made essentially no progress toward a suppression strategy that will detect and control new cases to avoid another shutdown.

Another reason to postpone everyone getting infected is that the longer that waits, the better treatments we'll have for the sick.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#287

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

belltaco wrote: post #230
rbritton wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd truly love to hear a good counterargument to this. I've argued much the same thing only to have the same opposing talking points restated verbatim.

You and the parent posters are assuming that everyone lives on their own and that younger people don't live with or take care of older people. Once things open up, employers will expect younger employees to show up. Couple that with asymptomatic transmission, how do you practice social distancing in a closed home?

You do it the same way essential workers do it now, I presume.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#288

Post by recursive »

beamatronic wrote: post #219
smallgovt wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your reaction to Sweden's COVID track? They didn't shut down daily life, and their hospitals are doing just fine. In fact, COVID cases and deaths have plateaued. Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

Educated, rule-following population that values science and logic. Here we have “Tiger King”

They have Tiger King also, by VPN if necessary.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#289

Post by dustingetz »

anm89 wrote: post #221

The reddit hive mind has become terrifying. It has seriously had a tangible effect on my faith in humanity. I never got onto Twitter but I assume it's about the same.

Humanity used to be a lot worse, you just didn't have a way of knowing that because ... reddit did not exist. Reddit and social media has generally progressive effects for the same reason that increased communication between diverse people has progressive effects. Yes bad ideas spread but good ideas spread faster

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#290

Post by [deleted] »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #270
Skunkleton wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What bothers me is the contention that my rights are contingent upon reported capacity of already existing hospitals. What rights do you think you have here? Businesses are controlled through licensing and zoning. Outdoor spaces are regulated. Which right are you referring to?

The Bay Area shelter-in-place orders purport to ban you from inviting friends over, which is neither licensed nor regulated.

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