The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May • Hacker News Board

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#241

Post by TaylorAlexander » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:36 PM UTC

vanniv wrote: post #24

killion wrote: post #2

We are down 50% from the peak of Covid deaths in California. It seems likely we will have one or more days of zero Covid deaths before the end of May. That is the measure I assume they are going for at this point. Source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/cali...

California has no intent to ever end the lockdowns. On February 26th, 2077, the Mayor of San Francisco and the Governor of California will sign an extension of the temporary emergency lockdown until "at least April 1st"

This is such a silly position.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#242

Post by glofish » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:36 PM UTC

bobthepanda wrote: post #222

walterbell wrote: post #162

People forget that there is no law which can put everyone under house arrest. This is all done voluntarily. Why is it ok for people to shop at Walmart and not at their local small business that sells the same goods and is better equipped to enforce social distancing, with customers explicitly opting in to visit the smaller store? If a small business can protect workers and customers, and a comparable large business i…

I'm not aware of any lockdowns which are specifically targeted at small retailers while competing large retailers are allowed to be open. Where I am the small coffee shops are closed for walk-in business, but so are the Starbucks; the difference is that small coffee shops are not able to pivot to a centralized delivery platform en masse the way Starbucks is.

Well there are plenty of catergories that make little sense. Why is Dick's Sporting goods closed but Walmart is open. Why is Kohl clothing store closed but Target is open. etc.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#243

Post by 01100011 » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:36 PM UTC

I'm surprised we're not seeing plans for some businesses to reopen with restrictions. I think it will be a while before we allow haircuts and manicures again, but I see no reason why we can't increase the types of businesses allowed open. Limiting occupancy, requiring PPE, and enforcing social distancing appear to be reasonable requirements. I hope the politicians and government workers are busy trying to find a middle-ground and not just playing it safe to cover their asses.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#244

Post by marcell » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:36 PM UTC

yongjik wrote: post #209

marcell wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your evidence that hospitals in America in general, and in California, are anywhere near being overwhelmed? I've cited evidence which shows the opposite--they are very far from being overwhelmed.

On 3/16 San Francisco and some other cities issued the shelter-in-place order, and CA had 472 patients. Two weeks later, on 3/30, CA had 6,932 patients. That's 21% average daily increase, with an existing shelter-in-place order . With 21% daily increase, it takes 12 days to go from 10% to 100% hospital utilization. And change of policy usually takes a week or more to affect the curve. Which means, we are ~5 days away…

First, it's not clear or obvious that the 21% daily increase rate would increase indefinitely. Infection rate slows more people get infected, and new potential victims decrease.

Second, all regions saw giant, double digit growth rates at first, and then lower growth rates. Sweden is taking a more laissez faire approach, and their growth rate has dropped from over +20% d/d to +1% d/d [1]

There isn't data to support the idea that we'd have 100% utilization in the Bay Area without shelter in place.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S...

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#245

Post by ultrarunner » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:37 PM UTC

anm89 wrote: post #221

The reddit hive mind has become terrifying. It has seriously had a tangible effect on my faith in humanity. I never got onto Twitter but I assume it's about the same.

I intentionally moved from reddit to HN after this same specific realization. After a few years it seemed like reddit would be a good place for hyper local info on covid, but I quickly saw the same effect— misanthropy in the face of so many people trying to do the best they could for others during hard times. It’s off topic here, but I seriously wonder what specifically caused reddit to adopt the largely toxic culture it has.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#246

Post by exmadscientist » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:37 PM UTC

anm89 wrote: post #221

The reddit hive mind has become terrifying. It has seriously had a tangible effect on my faith in humanity. I never got onto Twitter but I assume it's about the same.

The hive mind is terrifying in general. It's bad here, too.

There are mindless zombies arguing for endless quarantine and nothing else will do.

There are mindless zombies arguing that lockdown must end immediately or their freedoms will be irrevocably harmed.

What happened to reason? What happened to recognizing that this lockdown is awful, but useful, and we need to make an intelligent decision about when it ends? There are good reasons to end it now. There are good reasons to extend it for years. The right answer is somewhere in the middle, and only reasonable humans are going to be able to find it.

Mindless hive zombies are not welcome in my world.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#247

Post by Pfhreak » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:38 PM UTC

glofish wrote: post #242

bobthepanda wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not aware of any lockdowns which are specifically targeted at small retailers while competing large retailers are allowed to be open. Where I am the small coffee shops are closed for walk-in business, but so are the Starbucks; the difference is that small coffee shops are not able to pivot to a centralized delivery platform en masse the way Starbucks is.

Well there are plenty of catergories that make little sense. Why is Dick's Sporting goods closed but Walmart is open. Why is Kohl clothing store closed but Target is open. etc.

Walmart sells food. Target sells food.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#248

Post by atourgates » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:38 PM UTC

forgotmylogin2 wrote: post #175

marcell wrote: post #5

Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…

+1. Continuing a lockdown of this severity makes no sense. San Francisco has only had 22 Covid deaths. A city the size of SF would be expected to see 5x as many cancer deaths as that in a normal month [1] and 7x as many heart disease deaths [2]. Instead, we're maintaining a policy that discourages people from seeking preventative treatment for these diseases on the basis that we don't want them contracting a less dea…

> The lockdown has proven to be excessive. The doomsday predictions have not come to pass

Alternate interpretation: the lockdown worked.

I fully agree that continual lockdown without a concrete plan for what its achievable goals are, and how and when we'll reopen is excessive. Some kind of targeted, data-driven reopening in stages is the right way to be headed.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#249

Post by jshevek » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:39 PM UTC

primeradical wrote: post #188

jshevek wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is not the time for egocentric defiance of the recommendations from our leaders. This is not a fair representation of the alternative and contrary viewpoints.

I understand you feel my characterization is unfair. But the focus on our own personal interaction with the virus without acknowledging how ignoring shelter at home orders can spread the virus to others, is selfish and egocentric. I do not believe there is room for an alternative viewpoint to that.

No, I'm not expressing my emotions, I'm pointing out the lack of intellectual integrity in the statement.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#250

Post by mumblemumble » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:41 PM UTC

exmadscientist wrote: post #246

anm89 wrote: post #221

The reddit hive mind has become terrifying. It has seriously had a tangible effect on my faith in humanity. I never got onto Twitter but I assume it's about the same.

The hive mind is terrifying in general. It's bad here, too. There are mindless zombies arguing for endless quarantine and nothing else will do. There are mindless zombies arguing that lockdown must end immediately or their freedoms will be irrevocably harmed. What happened to reason? What happened to recognizing that this lockdown is awful, but useful, and we need to make an intelligent decision about when it ends? T…

They key thing to remember is that the bulk of the voices contributing to comment sections on the Internet are those of people who spend a lot of time time posting comments on the Internet.

(Yes, I know what that implies about mine, too.)