Earlier quoted context omitted.
> and the motivations for it are absolutely disgusting. What are those?
Desperation to reopen and juice corporate profits/wall street
Not a desire for a better understanding of the issues?
Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
441–450 of 544 posts
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#442Random testing in Germany has also revealed higher than expected rates of people with antibodies. Their IFR (infected fatality rate) was 2% overall based on non-random testing. Random testing has yielded an IFR or 0.37%. This does not increase the risk. These tests only test people who had coronavirus. The larger this portion, the more herd immunity there is in the population. It implies that there were a larger than…
If 0.37% is true, why are the hospitals in this shape?
.0037 * 83,700,000 = 309,690 additional people
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#443Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just as one data point, the captain of the ship raised alarms about the virus spreading late last month. So it’s not exactly a recent outbreak. Of course, without testing from that period it’s impossible to know.
If the virus spreads exponentially, you would expect most cases to be presymptomatic at any given time.
This is an astute point, elegantly stated.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#444Earlier quoted context omitted.
If 0.37% is true, why are the hospitals in this shape?
Imagine all 65M people in the UK caught the virus then a 10,000 case fatality number would give a rate of 0.015%. The rate itself has no time element so it tells you nothing about the number of people in hospital right now and hence isn't very illustrative of how hospitals can be swamped by this disease. More interestingly (for me at least) is that the mortality rate is dependent on a patient's access to a ventilator…
In addition, this virus tends to prey on the weak. You don't want to have a pre-existing condition around Covid-19. If you look at the top causes of deaths in the USA in recent years then match well with C19's "favorite" targets. This instance, high blood pressure, diabetes, lung disease (e.g., COPD aka smoking), etc.
The last stat I heard was 40% of USA adults have a pre-existing condition. That's a significant amount of potential hospitalizations.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#445Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the virus spreads exponentially, you would expect most cases to be presymptomatic at any given time.
This is an astute point, elegantly stated.
Vacous, but elegantly stated.
In a small population like an aircraft carrier, the virus stops spreading exponentially very quickly.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#446Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just as one data point, the captain of the ship raised alarms about the virus spreading late last month. So it’s not exactly a recent outbreak. Of course, without testing from that period it’s impossible to know.
If the virus spreads exponentially, you would expect most cases to be presymptomatic at any given time.
Not when the amount of people is limited. Exponential spread in isolated group of 3000 people necessary becomes non exponential at some point.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#447Earlier quoted context omitted.
Imagine all 65M people in the UK caught the virus then a 10,000 case fatality number would give a rate of 0.015%. The rate itself has no time element so it tells you nothing about the number of people in hospital right now and hence isn't very illustrative of how hospitals can be swamped by this disease. More interestingly (for me at least) is that the mortality rate is dependent on a patient's access to a ventilator…
Though my understanding is that the survival rate of a covid19 patient once he requires a ventilator is around 50%. If that's true, at worst, if we ran out of ventilators, the death rate would double. That's bad and we should avoid it but the doubling of a tiny number will still be a small number. Which is why I am still confused by the ratio of 1:10 that the White House has shown between the death toll under lockdow…
We've been on lockdown because approx 1% of the US population has tested positive. That means 99% are not. How can we come out of lockdown when we are effectively still where we started. We're not even close to herd immunity.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#448Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you're going to compare the deaths you need to count them in the same way, and you haven't done so here.
Well it’s fair to say that neither has the government, if anyone dies in possession of COVID they’re automatically a COVID death, pretty much even if they get hit by a truck. That’s not true of the flu is it?
You're incorrect to say that if anyone dies with Covid-19 that they're counted as a covid-19 death.
It's likely that covid-19 deaths are undercounted. Here's one example: https://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortality-associated-with-co...
For a while the US was only counting deaths that happened in hospitals.
This argument -- that we're somehow over-counting covid-19 death -- doesn't hold because we can compare excess mortality this year against the previous 5 years.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking...
Spain: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1247500657386557443
For the UK: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/tracking-mortality-over-time/
> That’s not true of the flu is it?
Yes, it is. The figures that count covid-19 vs flu are available, and they use the same method. They look at death certifications and then statisticians code those. There's lag in those figures which is why worldometers don 't use that data.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#449Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd take issue at the use of the word 'sailor', when it's been an awfully long time since the navy used sails to get into battle...
A sailor in the Navy is anyone that's not an officer
A Sailor in the Navy is anyone in the Navy, period.
And it’s capitalized.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#450Sailors are very young. You can't assume that the proportion of people who are asymptomatic to be the same for every age group. The 60% asymptomatic percentage is also a lot lower than some of the assumptions flowing around the internet (~90%).
Yep. From the article: > Still, the case of the Theodore Roosevelt offers a case study for researchers about how the virus spreads asymptomatically in a confined environment among mostly younger adults. ...but they don't mention what the average age is. Presumably someone has the data to produce an interesting scatterplot of age versus symptom severity.
Average age is probably early 20s. Huge number of first term Sailors between 18 and 22.