Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

Post by rocqua » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 6:38 AM UTC

feral wrote: post #128

alexbanks wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a thing I've been thinking about a lot. We're quick to say "We're not testing enough", but also quick to throw statistics around "disproving" the amount of asymptomatic cases. I am on the side of "It's probably orders of magnitude widespread than most countries think", and the number of totally asymptomatic cases is actually far far higher. You can't test only the old and the already sick and then accurately…

Humanity's understanding of this disease is much more sophisticated than the two comments above this would imply. Researchers are not stupidly looking at Diamond Princess and getting confused because the population is old. Rather it's a powerful dataset because it enables us to quantify the asymptomatic people of all ages, because people were tested fairly exhaustively before being allowed leave, regardless of sympto…

Post by officialjunk » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 6:50 AM UTC

kavalg wrote: post #363

thesz wrote: post #356

Let me cite full abstract of the research on CT scans of symptom-free COVID-19 patients [1] Purpose To evaluate the chest CT findings in an environmentally homogeneous cohort from the cruise ship “Diamond Princess” with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Materials and Methods This retrospective study comprised 104 cases (mean age, 62 years ± 16, range 25-93) with COVID-19 confirmed with RT-PCR. CT images were revie…

When you say damage, do you mean permanent damage? Or maybe it is still not clear?

Post by robbiep » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 6:54 AM UTC

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #187

robbiep wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Austria did a relatively large scale antibody sample of its pop (0). Seems to discredit the notion that infections are vastly different than modelling. (0) https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/less-than-1-of...

This article says it was not an antibody sample.

Post by xorcist » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 6:57 AM UTC

maxerickson wrote: post #174

btilly wrote: post #27

This figure does not surprise me. It is in line with Iceland finding that 50% of people they tested were asymptomatic. However as https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understan... notes, in other samples about 75% of people who were asymptomatic at the time of the test went on to develop symptoms. So the fact that these sailors are currently asymptomatic does not mean that they will remain so. See https…

It is in line with Iceland finding that 50% of people they tested were asymptomatic. That's imprecisely stated. 50% of the people that tested positive were asymptomatic. Most of the people tested, both in Iceland and on the Theodore Roosevelt, have tested negative. Esper's comments are ridiculous. It's been clear for months that there is some significant degree of asymptomatic spread, it's not new information.

Post by sveme » Fri, Apr 17, 2020, 7:00 AM UTC

arcticbull wrote: post #347

system2 wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If 0.37% is true, why are the hospitals in this shape?

Because it's spreading so very fast, and nobody has any pre-existing immunity to this new disease. The flu kills 60,000 Americans every year and so far COVID has killed about 10,000 -- over roughly the same flu season time period. The difference is that the flu is spread out over time and is fighting some pre-existing immunity and flu shots. It also has a lot to do with excess capacity. If there suddenly appeared a n…