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Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

reuters.com

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Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#161

Post by vkou »

grandmczeb wrote: post #150
dboreham wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By lack of a pile of bodies.

If there’s a lot of uncounted asymptotic cases the IFR is correspondingly lower.

Only 25% of the positive-cases on the Diamond princess turned out to be asymptomatic after 4 weeks.

The much-higher, 50% numbers that were being thrown around were obviously overestimated - precisely because it takes a week or two or three for some people to start showing symptoms.

As such, it's incredibly unlikely that the # of real cases is some large multiplier of the number of confirmed cases in any areas that are regularly testing people with flu-like symptoms.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#162

Post by lazyasciiart »

lbeltrame wrote: post #88
btilly wrote: post #27

This figure does not surprise me. It is in line with Iceland finding that 50% of people they tested were asymptomatic. However as https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understan... notes, in other samples about 75% of people who were asymptomatic at the time of the test went on to develop symptoms. So the fact that these sailors are currently asymptomatic does not mean that they will remain so. See https…

Are there any data on the severity of the symptoms? From what I've gathered, but without any hard data, in non-severe cases (i.e. not needing hospitalization) they can vary from a slight sore throat, dry cough and mild fever, to the same with a high fever and general sense of exhaustion.

Non-severe covers bronchitis, pneumonia, etc. My friend (who tested positive but was not hospitalized) described it as "chest pain, difficulty breathing, if I do something silly like walk 10 feet to the kitchen I get lightheaded and hold on to the wall" - for about ten days.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#163

Post by bosie »

TylerE wrote: post #130
ImaCake wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel that the asymptomatic thing is more wishful thinking in places where infection control has failed. Other countries have shown that you can contain the spread of Covid19, even if there are asymptomatic (or more realistic, low symptom severity) cases.

How do we KNOW it's controlled? Asymptomatic people are not, as a rule, tested, so actual infection rates could be massive.

By testing 100% of a city and realising that neither the current infectio rate is high nor a large number of people with antibodies is found?

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#164

Post by capkutay »

eximius wrote: post #10

This is mixed news. While this indicates the death rate may be lower and the infection rate higher among the general population, the demographic of individuals in the US military are going to be of significantly higher health than the general population. So, it doesn't necessarily ease the risk for demographics already identified as 'at-risk'. If anything, their risk might be understated given the higher infection ra…

> the demographic of individuals in the US military are going to be of significantly higher health than the general population.

29 out of 33 pregnant women who tested positive at Columbia University Medical in NYC were also asymptomatic:

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85965

With other viruses, pregnant women are typically considered at elevated risk. For example, they had a significantly higher fatality rate with the Spanish Flu. So it's still unclear who is most likely to be asymptomatic based on the data we have so far.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#165

Post by twomoretime »

Now hopefully we can get a better estimate of the range of the latent period. That these cases are asymptomatic does not mean they won't show symptoms at some later date. It also does not mean they are invulnerable to reinfection, and if this virus indeed has Antibody Dependent Enhancement like SARS, this could create an extremely dangerous setup for a second wave with a significantly higher, order of magnitude, death rate.

All of the bits and pieces are floating around in papers, hopefully they won't be confirmed like everything else that started as errant literature.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#167

Post by lostlogin »

perl4ever wrote: post #66
cryoshon wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is a really good point. AFAIK, 100% of the canonical pre-existing conditions which are highly dangerous with COVID are disqualifiers for joining the military. this cohort will give us a much better picture of how the virus impacts a totally healthy and young population. as with countless other pieces of evidence, it should also help to put the "it's just a flu bro" falsehood to bed.

"AFAIK, 100% of the canonical pre-existing conditions which are highly dangerous with COVID are disqualifiers for joining the military." Including being "old".

Disqualified from signing up, but you can age surely?

I thought that smokers had elevated risks too, are smokers allowed in the military? As far as I can tell they are.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#168

Post by IAmEveryone »

jonny_eh wrote: post #48
eximius wrote: post #10

This is mixed news. While this indicates the death rate may be lower and the infection rate higher among the general population, the demographic of individuals in the US military are going to be of significantly higher health than the general population. So, it doesn't necessarily ease the risk for demographics already identified as 'at-risk'. If anything, their risk might be understated given the higher infection ra…

But it would indicate the we may be closer to herd immunity than we thought, which would be great news.

Let’s assume 100% in NY are or have been infected. 12,000 deaths / 20 million = 0.0006% fatality.

Then scale that up to US population outside N.Y.: 18,0000 deaths / 0,0006 = 3,000,000 infected out of 300,000,000 for an infection rate of... 1%.

Herd immunity takes about 66% to 70%. So: only 65% to 69% to go, or about 200,000 deaths.

Lower the assumed infection rate in NY to anything realistic and it only gets worse. For (still high) 20% you’re looking at a million deaths to achieve herd immunity.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#169

Post by perl4ever »

lostlogin wrote: post #167
perl4ever wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"AFAIK, 100% of the canonical pre-existing conditions which are highly dangerous with COVID are disqualifiers for joining the military." Including being "old".

Disqualified from signing up, but you can age surely? I thought that smokers had elevated risks too, are smokers allowed in the military? As far as I can tell they are.

On average, people who start out older tend to end up older, after a given period of time. That's my theory, at least.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#170

Post by IAmEveryone »

glofish wrote: post #5
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Many institutions test only if preparing to admit. Anybody else is told to go home and recover in isolation.

if the US has 33K deaths and the death rate is 0.6% then the US must have at least 5 million cases. If the death rate is lower (most likely around 0.3%) then it means 10 million infections. Also a good news actually.

That’s 3% of population. Meaning it would 25x times as many deaths to get to “herd immunity”. That’s 750,000 deaths. Good news?
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