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Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

reuters.com

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Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#211

Post by aaron_m04 »

analog31 wrote: post #158
dboreham wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By lack of a pile of bodies.

I think that the reported numbers of deaths place some bounds on the kinds of hypotheses that are tenable, including those suggesting that there is already a protective level of herd immunity, or a vanishingly small death rate. For instance, one early hypothesis was that the virus was endemic in our population for a long time, but that doesn't explain why the death rate shot up suddenly over the past month. And 15000…

> Many of those hypotheses coincided with claims that the lockdown was unnecessary or excessive.

This is it. The (short-term) financial incentives to opening up the economy are _massive_. Anyone trying to support that will jump all over some weakly supported hypothesis like this.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#212

Post by rootusrootus »

JPKab wrote: post #121

Might also be important to note that sailors on an aircraft carrier are primarily college-aged.

~50% of enlisted sailors are 25 or younger, with each successive age bracket getting smaller. For officers it is more like ~13% and it's evenly distributed by age bracket.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#213

Post by rootusrootus »

tropo wrote: post #148
JPKab wrote: post #121

Might also be important to note that sailors on an aircraft carrier are primarily college-aged.

Also 0% with asthma, obesity, diabetes, etc.

Not true. For various reasons, the military grants medical waivers and allows some people with asthma and other afflictions to remain enlisted.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#214

Post by anewguy9000 »

aaron_m04 wrote: post #206
henrikschroder wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> or Sweden Please note that the reporting on Sweden from outside Sweden is completely bananas. The idea of how Sweden is handling the pandemic, alongside cherry-picked data, is being used to argue for whatever lockdown theory people seem to have. The facts though are that Sweden is not an outlier in any way shape or form. Compared to other European countries, Sweden is boringly in the middle of the pack, and showing…

OK that's good to know. Is their government handling it any differently than other countries? Or has it in the past?

absolutley: public schools remain open for example. rather than enforce mandatory rules the government is encouraging personal responsibility. wfh is at 50% as is transit usage. source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronav...

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#215

Post by asdf21 »

Theodores wrote: post #196
wbronitsky wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the terrible take that will be everywhere in the next few weeks; “I think I had it, therefore I am an expert on the spread of this disease”. There is no data or coherent argumentation here. I’m sorry you were sick, but this isn’t an argument based on facts, it’s an anecdote based off of little that might put people in danger. We need to inoculate ourselves from this argument because we are about to see it eve…

I too am a 'pretty sure I had it already' person. I have also spoken to others that, like me, think they might have had it already. In the weeks before the story went crazy I bought a dehumidifier in the belief that this might help me eradicate a dry cough that would not go away. Not for one moment did I think I had coronavirus at the time, however, as time went on, I began to wonder. Placebo or not, the dehumidifier…

It wasn't from food, they were messing around with bats in a lab seeing if people could be infected, surprise, they could be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#216

Post by asdf21 »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #47
coherentpony wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? > All the data points to the fact that coronavirus is more widespread and less deadly than most outlets are reporting You couldn't be more wrong. There are nurses and doctors working on the front lines dealing with patients, and they're completely and utterly overloaded. Lack of resources. Lack of help from local and federal governments. They're th…

> Are you of the opinion that this is simply just a slightly worse flu? I mean I'm about 95% sure I already had it. Had literally every single symptom but the local health authority (Alberta, Canada) wouldn't test me. My SO had it worse but again, they wouldn't test her. Felt like a worse flu + more coughing and shortness of breath. Worse fever. My symptoms were bad for about 3 days, then felt like a cold for about a…

When did you have it

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#217

Post by sharemywin »

btilly wrote: post #27

This figure does not surprise me. It is in line with Iceland finding that 50% of people they tested were asymptomatic. However as https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understan... notes, in other samples about 75% of people who were asymptomatic at the time of the test went on to develop symptoms. So the fact that these sailors are currently asymptomatic does not mean that they will remain so. See https…

Not to mention. There's a giant filter called basic training which going to skew the numbers. you have a bunch of kids running around in the best shape of there lives and hey what do you know they handle the virus better than average.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#218

Post by badfrog »

jyounker wrote: post #199

We can't tell anything from the article. * We don't know how many people were tested. * We don't know how many people tested positive. * We don't know the false positive rate for the test.

> We don't know how many people were tested.

> We don't know how many people tested positive.

Both of those are in the article.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#219

Post by elSidCampeador »

londons_explore wrote: post #50
blakesterz wrote: post #6

>> The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say. I don't know much about this kind of thing, but isn't the most important word in that sentence "sailors"? I would think people living on an aircraft carrier are, on average, way different in many major ways than the average American. So it seems like making any kinds of assumptions based on this wouldn't be super relia…

I'd take issue at the use of the word 'sailor', when it's been an awfully long time since the navy used sails to get into battle...

A sailor in the Navy is anyone that's not an officer

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#220

Post by couchand »

bhouston wrote: post #104
ImaCake wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel that the asymptomatic thing is more wishful thinking in places where infection control has failed. Other countries have shown that you can contain the spread of Covid19, even if there are asymptomatic (or more realistic, low symptom severity) cases.

We need widespread antigen testing in a place like Italy or NYC or Sweden. Would be so informative.

Is there really widespread antigen testing in NYC? I certainly have not heard about it here in Brooklyn.
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