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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#521

Post by ruslan »

temac wrote: post #512

Is there a guarantee it would not associate with other viruses (possibly other strains, or even something worse?) And the lack of testing to "save time" actually does not look like a good idea for a live virus you want to give to the whole earth.

IMHO, he is not going to give new virus to the whole earth, the virus already exists hence freely speading by itself from host to host. The idea is to speed up spreading of "good" virus to preempt spreading of a bad one and finally make the last to extinct.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#522

Post by TuringNYC »

danieltillett wrote: post #247
TuringNYC wrote: post #235

Dear @danieltillett - Thanks for the thoughtful piece. You noted on your post "live attenuated (oral) polio vaccine" but later wrote "Apart from the time it will take to develop, trial, and mass produce a vaccine (12-18 months), it is unlikely that any vaccine will be practicable." So how do you imagine this solution being administered if not as a vaccine? Is the solution a Pox Party ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P…

A pox party would work. Given the strain will be infectious like the dangerous strains it is not going to be too hard to spread it around. You can look at it from the other perspective - once identified it would be impossible to stop people spreading it around on their own. Let’s say one of you friends got infected with this “safe” strain you would quickly head over to their home for a cup of tea and a good chat.

Thanks for the thoughts @danieltillett. I'm sorry you are not getting more traction on the idea. I'd sign up for this if I had this!

IANAL but I did run an infection detection medical diagnostics startup for 3yrs that I co-founded. Since we're on HN, perhaps here is how you might get traction (note, i'm just throwing this out move-fast-and-break-things-style for the sake of brainstorming):

1. Form a company, announce the idea bigtime! (Incorporate overseas for liability protection?)

2. Sell a sequencing service that tells you the strain you have -- offer no medical advice. Not a diagnostic for medical purposes, more like 23&me (does this get around regs?)

3. Offer a free matching service to find locals with the strain, perhaps with an app to validate their strain, etc. (some incentive for the customer?)

Note this isn't legal advice, but it would be awesome if someone with the correct background could provide feedback on this approach.

As for my startup, we sold overseas in easier reg jurisdictions -- we were never able to break into the US market.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#523

Post by nagai »

jfoutz wrote: post #68
danieltillett wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not really my style to boast about myself, but yes I should at least provide a link to the about me page.

Sort of a weird ask, but as a real, no shit, virologist, what do you think about changing your messaging to make content more accessible to lazy readers? I have some half baked ideas about tradeoffs in infection rate and fatality, but I'm worse than a layman, I'm a layman with an opinion. I'd sorta thought a virus could be real lethal(like ebola) ore real infectious(like a cold) but it's kinda hard to be both at the…

> is there a tradeoff in how the message spreads vs how convincing it is?

That doesn't make any sense, viruses that are more fatal don't spread well because dead people are not good spreaders. Very sick people are also less capable spreaders than someone walking around with a persistent cough. Someone who's convinced would be MORE likely to spread a message.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#524

Post by carapace »

throwanem wrote: post #471
carapace wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The reason I called out TNG S1 earlier was because it lacked absolutely nothing in terms of space-opera absurdity by comparison with Discovery, and so it's odd to me that you should abhor the one and disregard the other. Oh there is a lot of silliness in TNG (Data can't get the hang of contractions!?) but, and this is entirely subjective, to me it seemed in line with the rules or framework that TOS established. Wha…

Oh, I don't know; I think I can see what he means. The change would give additional point to the major theme of mortals taking on the burden of looking after themselves - of deciding their own course among the wonders, terrors, and banalities of the ever-unfolding future, instead of any longer relying on gods, demigods, and immortals to do so. (If that's a theme you appreciate in LotR, then you may be interested to k…

> Oh, I don't know; I think I can see what he means. The change would give additional point to the major theme of mortals taking on the burden of looking after themselves - of deciding their own course among the wonders, terrors, and banalities of the ever-unfolding future, instead of any longer relying on gods, demigods, and immortals to do so.

But... the Jesus-Osiris myth!? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dying-and-rising_deity I thought that was the whole point?

Also, is that a theme of LotR? It's been a while since I read them but I thought the theme was pretty clearly just "stick it Sauron", no? Am I a philistine?

Thank you too, this has been a lot of fun.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#525

Post by danieltillett »

ineedasername wrote: post #508
danieltillett wrote: post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually do address the numbers needed in the post. Yes you would want to sample as widely as possible in the ideal world, but more important is just getting the right samples. The reason why this would be faster is the process of looking for the strain and identifying it as safe would generate data that would allow the regulatory authorities to approve its use. Manufacturing would not be the limiting factor here.

I read the whole article through. Now I have done so twice. Maybe I have a blind spot, maybe I misunderstand something, but I don't see where you address the number of tests needed. Certainly you don't address the need (or lack thereof) for geographically & genetically diverse testing. Your background also does not appear to contain detailed experience within the manufacturing and deployment side of vaccines, so I ho…

I address the number issue here.

With little cost we could sequence a few thousand viral strains, or even tens of thousands of strains, from positive test sample from asymptomatic and/or mild case until we find a virus strain with the right mutations to make it harmless and which could work like a vaccine.

The manufacturing issues are not really my strength or extremely relevant to the idea, but this involves a live virus so you just need to grow it up in large scale cell cultures. We have the infrastructure for this in place in the biotech industry. One of the positives of SARS-CoV-2 from the perspective of my idea is how contagious it is - you only need a small number of viral particles to achieve an infection. This makes the scaling much easier.

The bigger issue at this point is finding the attenuated strain strain.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#526

Post by danieltillett »

LyndsySimon wrote: post #455
nosuchfileordir wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the update section of the original post: > If you think you might be that first hop person then please get in contact with me at daniel.tillett@gmail.com

Thank you. I don’t know if that just wasn’t there when I posted, or if I just missed it, but I appreciate it.

It was there, but I put it right at the bottom so at least only people who read the entire post would find it. I am at least a lot easier to get in contact with than anyone with the political clout to make this happen.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#527

Post by saagarjha »

dang wrote: post #70
saagarjha wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know you often do so anyways, but perhaps these kinds of reposts deserve a comment explaining their circumstances.

I don't think this would add much value, because it would attract attention away from submissions to the meta-business of their provenance on HN. I'm wary of adding bookkeeping facilities for that reason generally.

Fair enough; just thought I'd mention it because the lack of such bookkeeping seems to attract attention as well.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#528

Post by nikolay »

I hear a lot of ideas, which ignore the indications from both China and South Korea about re-infection. Nobody for sure knows how long the immunity lasts. Also, people could be asymptomatic/mild-symptom, just because they have a strong immune response, not because the strain is less deadly. How do you quantify who is immunosuppressed and who has a well-functioning immune system?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#529

Post by tim333 »

danieltillett wrote: post #78
conductr wrote: post #59

Any back of envelope math on how much this "search" will cost? Does it require someone with Bill Gates sized bank account or are you mentioning him because you know he is specifically active in this area of philanthropy/very influential?

Yes. Less than a million dollars - I actually can afford to pay the whole thing myself. The only reason to get someone like Bill Gates involved it to get access to the samples and the required political capital to make it happen.

Cool. I hope you get it done.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#530

Post by tim333 »

Sounds like a good idea.

Another interesting possible solution which can be used now but is a bit unproven is to use hydroxychloroquine + zpak + zinc or some variation on that on people with symptoms or who test positive as it seems to reduce viral spreading.

Bit controversial but the results in Marseille look quite good - the infection rate in those tested has roughly halved recently while France as a whole is going up. https://madeinmarseille.net/64805-covid-19-didier-raoult-res... https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/

And the anecdotal reports from the Zeleko guy are good even if people think he's a nut.

Also in the Rome area "every single person with Covid-19 that has early signs, like a cough or a fever for example, is now being treated with the anti-malaria drug." Which may provide data going forward https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/03/29/italy-finally-starts-m...

Anyway unproven but may be a way forward if the results prove good.

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