A (possible) solution to Covid-19 • Hacker News Board

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#71

Post by danieltillett » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 8:44 AM UTC

elmolino89 wrote: post #64

Virus can be asymptomatic for a number of reasons. Host factors, such as age, (speculation) history of the previous coronavirus but not covid-19 infections, etc. Going after covid-19 genomes in a group of asymptomatic and symptomatic 70+ years old with sampling from different regions/countries may give us better data. Finding a mutated strain which never gives symptoms in old people from diverse locations, diet, heal…

Yes. What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#72

Post by danieltillett » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 8:46 AM UTC

robocat wrote: post #46

danieltillett wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect even the first world will be interested in options like this after a few more months of social isolation.

On second thoughts perhaps the idea wouldn’t work in countries that don’t have an effective lockdown. Could the infection wave of a less dangerous genotype overtake the number of infections of the more dangerous genotype before the population has been mostly infected already?

Yes if we act soon as we can spread the less dangerous version faster than the normal human-to-human spread of the dangerous version. For example if we were to send a postcard infected with the less dangerous version to 10 million people it would get out ahead of the dangerous version spreading normally.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#73

Post by grey-area » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 8:46 AM UTC

riedel wrote: post #66

anonymouz wrote: post #57

It seems the reason the vaccine will take so long (12-18months) to develop is because it needs to be tested for long-term safety which takes a trial with long-term monitoring. As this is essentially a sort of (active) vaccine, how do you propose ensuring it's long-term safety? It seems you'd run into essentially the same problem as with developing the vaccine.

It seems to me that the whole article describes to me an alternative way to find a vaccine . Maybe someone can enlighten me: aren't there vaccines that are simply rather harmless mutations/relatives of the virus but trigger the same immune reaction?

Yes, there are

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attenuated_vaccine

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#74

Post by danieltillett » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 8:50 AM UTC

choeger wrote: post #61

Stupid question: if you only search people with mild or even asymptomatic cases, how does that even tell you something about the virus? Should you not also search in (many) severe cases for the candidate, to exclude it from the list of dangerous virii?

There are no stupid questions, just stupid politicians.

We are looking for an attenuated strain and that will be found in people with a mild case. We could sequence all cases, but we would exclude any strain that puts someone in hospital so it is a waste of resources to sequence viruses from people in hospital. From a practical perspective it is better to concentrate on people with only mild cases.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#75

Post by robocat » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 8:52 AM UTC

mirekrusin wrote: post #14

Interesting, I wonder if this could explain to some extend different death ratios that are currently blamed on hospital capacity, age etc. - in other words, what if Italy has spread of more danerous mutation kind and Japan has spread of less dangerous one.

Trevor Bedford (who seems to know his shit) opines that different genetic variants are unlikely to have measurably different phenotypes/outcomes.

See links here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22799096

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#76

Post by raverbashing » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 8:53 AM UTC

ziga wrote: post #35

> More than 50% of the people infected with SARS-CoV-19 are asymptomatic (i.e. they have no illness). Note: asymptomatic at the time of testing. They may still develop symptoms over time. https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/is-icelands-coronavir... https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1246196001775460358

Are they tracking that statistic? How many people who test positive later develop the symptoms?

Apparently 80% of those tested later get symptoms: https://twitter.com/TonyBurnetti/status/1246258723774963713

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#77

Post by londons_explore » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 8:53 AM UTC

danieltillett wrote: post #71

elmolino89 wrote: post #64

Virus can be asymptomatic for a number of reasons. Host factors, such as age, (speculation) history of the previous coronavirus but not covid-19 infections, etc. Going after covid-19 genomes in a group of asymptomatic and symptomatic 70+ years old with sampling from different regions/countries may give us better data. Finding a mutated strain which never gives symptoms in old people from diverse locations, diet, heal…

Yes. What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case.

You probably won't find that... You might find a strain where 99.9% of people get a mild case.

Who is going to be the person to recommend deliberately spreading that strain to the world population, knowing that 0.1% of the world, 7 million people, will end up in a hospital and die?

Sure, overall, fewer people might die, but the reality is whichever world leader makes that call has effectively just signed a death warrant for 7 million people. That isn't the way to get re-elected.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#78

Post by danieltillett » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 8:53 AM UTC

conductr wrote: post #59

Any back of envelope math on how much this "search" will cost? Does it require someone with Bill Gates sized bank account or are you mentioning him because you know he is specifically active in this area of philanthropy/very influential?

Yes. Less than a million dollars - I actually can afford to pay the whole thing myself. The only reason to get someone like Bill Gates involved it to get access to the samples and the required political capital to make it happen.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#79

Post by geomark » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 8:54 AM UTC

nobrains wrote: post #67

user_50123890 wrote: post #50

I don't think the mutations are the reason for asymptomatic cases. Coronaviruses mutate very slowly. More likely, viral load, immune system strength, overall age and the genetics of the person infected are what determines if the infection is fought off before any symptoms are shown

What is viral load, and doesn't it eventually become the same for everyone infected after some time during which the virus multiplies?

My understanding (not an expert) is that there is a difference depending how much of an initial dose of the virus you get. If it is very small then your immune system has more time to respond before the virus replicates to dangerously large numbers, whereas if your initial dose is large then you are starting with a large number of virus particles that replicate too fast for your immune system to respond.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#80

Post by Taek » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 8:55 AM UTC

jbermudes wrote: post #12

I'm glad people are realizing that all this social distancing is merely a pause button on the virus. Once we press play on society, exponential growth will happen again and we will have effectively rolled back the clock until we reach herd immunity through things like the OP's suggestion. At least this next time we'll hopefully have more PPE.

I'd much rather live in a world where everyone is required to wear masks all the time than live in a world where we are all told to stay home all the time.

I believe it's also well established that any measures taken to slow the spread of a new virus will always result in fewer total deaths, in that sense quarantining is much more effective than just being a pause button.