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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#51

Post by conductr »

Gupie wrote: post #26

Isn't this just one of many ways to produce a vaccine, so won't it need the same long term trials for safety and effectiveness that any type of vaccine needs? Reducing this this time somehow is what I think is needed.

I'm a layman to this topic but it makes total sense that we should be pursuing this approach. At some point, it needs an influential person to back it and help remove the red tape. I think it could be done though. Probably just needs money first to find the right mutation and that would be the lure for an influential person.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#52

Post by user_50123890 »

user_50123890 wrote: post #50

I don't think the mutations are the reason for asymptomatic cases. Coronaviruses mutate very slowly. More likely, viral load, immune system strength, overall age and the genetics of the person infected are what determines if the infection is fought off before any symptoms are shown

And anyways, the harsh lockdowns currently implemented are basically forcing the virus to evolve into being asymptomatic. Currently, anyone with even mild flu-like symptoms stays home

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#53

Post by danieltillett »

user_50123890 wrote: post #50

I don't think the mutations are the reason for asymptomatic cases. Coronaviruses mutate very slowly. More likely, viral load, immune system strength, overall age and the genetics of the person infected are what determines if the infection is fought off before any symptoms are shown

I address this exact point in my post. This has nothing to do with the proposal.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#54

Post by sysbin »

In theory the idea would work. People being cooperative enough is where I'm skeptical. I assume anyone in the high risk group would volunteer to receive the less-dangerous strain and when the incentive of lowering risk of death is obvious. I speculate young people wouldn't volunteer unless they have a health issue placing them in the high risk group.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#55

Post by bede »

mirekrusin wrote: post #14

Interesting, I wonder if this could explain to some extend different death ratios that are currently blamed on hospital capacity, age etc. - in other words, what if Italy has spread of more danerous mutation kind and Japan has spread of less dangerous one.

The global sequencing effort makes this reasonably straightforward to study. While the prevalance of different strains does vary geographically, new international tranmission events occur so frequently that most places have a handful of circulating strains already [0]

[0] https://nextstrain.org/ncov/europe

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#56

Post by RabbitmqGuy »

danieltillett wrote: post #19
jka wrote: post #10

This seems risky but worth consideration. Can you provide peer / concept review from virologists? A few items of feedback: - You could use a title that includes a distinct word to identify your proposed solution: "Using accentuated COVID-19 strains as a (possible) solution". This helps people to communicate and refer to the idea concisely. - The top three paragraphs may be known to your target audience; consider allo…

I am a virologist - well I have published many papers in this area. I have a PhD in molecular microbiology and have been a tenured professor (I now work in the biotech sector). This is not intended to be a scientific paper, but a layman’s summary of the idea so non-technical people can understand the idea. It is not risky to go looking for a naturally attenuated virus. This is the first step that needs to happen.

I think it would help to include your bio/qualifications in the blogpost.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#57

Post by anonymouz »

It seems the reason the vaccine will take so long (12-18months) to develop is because it needs to be tested for long-term safety which takes a trial with long-term monitoring. As this is essentially a sort of (active) vaccine, how do you propose ensuring it's long-term safety? It seems you'd run into essentially the same problem as with developing the vaccine.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#58

Post by logicchains »

sysbin wrote: post #54

In theory the idea would work. People being cooperative enough is where I'm skeptical. I assume anyone in the high risk group would volunteer to receive the less-dangerous strain and when the incentive of lowering risk of death is obvious. I speculate young people wouldn't volunteer unless they have a health issue placing them in the high risk group.

>I speculate young people wouldn't volunteer unless they have a health issue placing them in the high risk group.

I suspect lots of young people would happily volunteer if it meant their life could return to normal. Heck, I'd bet even for the current strain, with a ~0.1% risk of death for young people, quite a few people would volunteer to get it if it meant they could get out of lockdown.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#59

Post by conductr »

Any back of envelope math on how much this "search" will cost? Does it require someone with Bill Gates sized bank account or are you mentioning him because you know he is specifically active in this area of philanthropy/very influential?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#60

Post by buboard »

ImaCake wrote: post #47

I want to argue that the flaw in this is with the ability to find any strain that consistently causes only minor symptoms. If you infect a whole group of people with Covid-19 then we would see a distribution of severity from no symptoms to lethal. This broad spectrum is really just it's statistical variance (whatever the underlying distribution really looks like). It is worth comparing this to things like SARS. The d…

This paper argues on the basis of symptoms that there might be a milder strain that has dominated some countries vs others

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715v...

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