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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#471

Post by throwanem »

carapace wrote: post #464
throwanem wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, don't get me wrong, what you describe as the good in Trek is something I also appreciate. The trouble is that, TOS aside, I don't see it where you do. The reason I called out TNG S1 earlier was because it lacked absolutely nothing in terms of space-opera absurdity by comparison with Discovery, and so it's odd to me that you should abhor the one and disregard the other. But I'd also mention it in this connecti…

> The reason I called out TNG S1 earlier was because it lacked absolutely nothing in terms of space-opera absurdity by comparison with Discovery, and so it's odd to me that you should abhor the one and disregard the other. Oh there is a lot of silliness in TNG (Data can't get the hang of contractions!?) but, and this is entirely subjective, to me it seemed in line with the rules or framework that TOS established. Wha…

Oh, I don't know; I think I can see what he means. The change would give additional point to the major theme of mortals taking on the burden of looking after themselves - of deciding their own course among the wonders, terrors, and banalities of the ever-unfolding future, instead of any longer relying on gods, demigods, and immortals to do so.

(If that's a theme you appreciate in LotR, then you may be interested to know it is also the theme closest to the heart of Babylon 5, and around which its story entirely revolves...)

Thanks for this response! And for what it's worth, I miss utopia, too - or utopianism, anyway. Blame the postmodernist insistence on engaging in dialogue with a work, if you like, or the wide contrarian streak in my nature; when I see something presented as if without cracks, I insist on looking for them all the harder, and always end up finding them, too.

Sometimes I wish I didn't; life would seem simpler that way, for sure. But Leonard Cohen was right: there is a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#472

Post by throwanem »

carapace wrote: post #468
throwanem wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Take away Roddenberry's vision of a better future and you've got Babylon 5, eh? There's a hell of a take! Whatever Roddenberry's virtues, I don't recall him ever having the gumption to write a story in which the heroes go to war against the gods because the gods aren't doing it right . (It's a very Klingon thing to do, though, unless Worf was joking about that.)

Yeah, sorry, I went for name recognition rather than accuracy or precision. You make very good points.

Fair, and thank you! Fwiw, I'd have aimed the shot at the 2003 Battlestar Galactica instead, where it is very much deserved. Wild that Ronald Moore, who wrote so much of what's best in TNG, could also produce something that's so grim for the sake of grimness...

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#473

Post by danieltillett »

Robotbeat wrote: post #428
ferzul wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if bureacracy held up the spread of a live coronavirus, we wouldn't be in this mess

The proposal is to intentionally apply a live virus to people, so absolutely there are bureaucratic barriers to this (and for good reason). There is no a priori reason why this should have less red tape than a dead virus. If we're just going to ignore any regulations and bureaucracy for a live virus (like this proposes), we can do the same for a dead virus.

The reason why this should be able to advance faster than a normal vaccine approach is that we will have epidemiological data that it is safe in humans. Sure it would be nice to have double blinded placebo controlled data, but good epidemiology data is still data on which a regulatory decision could be made. In the current circumstances I think this will satisfy the regulators.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#474

Post by danieltillett »

usrusr wrote: post #299
baybal2 wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't an attenuated strain vaccine still require years of paperwork and clinical trials too?

It would only be logical to require a "vaccine-strain" that has the capability for uncontrolled spread to go through much more stringent trials and paperwork than one that is limited by distribution. The whole argument about attenuated strains being a possible shortcut seems to be a variation of the "natural medicine" fallacy.

Except the experiment has been done for us already by nature. We are not doing the experiment, just observing what has already happened. Sure you would not be able to make a strain of unknown attenuation in the lab and spread it around (this would be very dangerous), but you can use the data that nature has provided us. I am proposing we go and collect that data.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#475

Post by danieltillett »

anatoly wrote: post #374
danieltillett wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This just rules our using ZJ01. There are other attenuated strains out there that will have deletion mutations that can’t mutate back. We need to go find them.

Sorry if it's a stupid question, but hypothetically, would we be able to engineer rather than find a harmless strain of coronavirus with the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2? If I understand correctly, antigens identify the virus by its S proteins. Would we be able to use the same methods as" rel="nofollow">https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985'>as in this paper to replace the S protein in a harmless cold-like coronavir…

This is not a stupid question. Yes we could engineer such a strain, the problem would be testing it given we would not be able to predict how dangerous it was.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#477

Post by danieltillett »

ajross wrote: post #418
danieltillett wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think what you are missing here is what is the novel part of my idea and what is the conventional. It is not novel to think of an attenuated vaccine, what is novel is to look for an attenuated strain in a pandemic using genome sequencing. I hope someone else has thought of this, but so far I haven’t seen any evidence of this. Waiting for vaccine is not a good option. This is a situation with only hard choices.

"Waiting for a vaccine" is mostly a strawman. We're being asked to wait 2-3 months for the outbreaks to reach a size where they can be contained by testing, tracing and quarantine. But that only works if people take this seriously and honor the lockdowns.

Even if this would work in rich countries, this is not a realistic option for people in poor countries. They do not have the money to wait in isolation for the next 3 months.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#478

Post by danieltillett »

CathedralBorrow wrote: post #419
danieltillett wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unregulated spread by individuals is a solution, just not the one I think would be implemented if such a strain were found. I think it much more likely that the regulatory agency would quickly approve the use of the strain on the basis of the epidemiological data gathered in the process of finding it.

> I think it much more likely that the regulatory agency would quickly approve the use of the strain on the basis of the epidemiological data gathered in the process of finding it. Have you had experience with dealing with said regulatory agencies?

Unfortunately yes and they normally move at a glacial pace and demand 100% certainty about everything. I do have faith that they are capable of moving faster when the need is as urgent as the need right now.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#479

Post by danieltillett »

robomartin wrote: post #332
danieltillett wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. This is the problem I have run into which is all the right people are so busy at the moment that they don’t have time to look at something like this from someone like me.

Yes. I can confirm that your information got to one of my contacts at the White House. He replied saying he would distribute it to the right people. Your guess is as good as mine as to what happens from there. Even people within the White House have trouble penetrating through various layers due to just how busy everyone is (as well as security, etc.).

Thanks once again.
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