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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#411

Post by carapace »

throwanem wrote: post #344
TeMPOraL wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Captain's log, stardate 73740.9. The Enterprise has taken on board a distinguished Federation virologist, dr. Daniel Tillett, to help him with his search for a less harmful strain of the virus that's currently ravaging several planets in Federation space. The doctor is confident that such an attenuated strain could be used to swiftly end the ongoing pandemic." I would watch that episode. Hell, I'd watch any new epis…

And then it turns out similar to "Ethics", where the virologist's work is questionably founded and potentially quite dangerous, we get a Picard speech about how sacrificing some to save others is wrong, Data and Crusher technobabble up a treatment that doubles as a vaccine, the photogenic kid gets saved at the bottom of the fourth act, Admiral Nechayev and Picard fence a bit, credits. Pretty wild to count Enterprise…

I saw a few clips of ST:Discovery and nearly had an apoplexy. When the ship spins (rolls) on its longitudinal axis and disappears (using the "spore drive"...) I pretty much lost my mind for a moment.

Then it reappears with a flash that illuminates the nebula in the background. There are no clouds in space. Nebulas are big, really big. It would be light-years away. But the ship's photo-backwash lights it up like a flash bulb! I know Star Trek isn't hard sci-fi, but that's pathetic.

And the "spore drive"!? Who thought that up? (I know about mycorrhiza and all that, I'm not ignorant) The universe is pervaded by invisible intangible cosmic fungus? That somehow enables FTL teleportation? And keeps people alive in limbo after they die? That might be Lovecraft but it's not Roddenberry.

And they named the "astromycologist" character after the real guy!? (Paul Stamets) Did they ask him? That's just so weird.

To me it feels like it's made to mock Star Trek fans. Watching it (just for about ~4 minutes) made me feel like the network and producers are just mocking me. (And not in a good way. I love Galaxy Quest, because it's obviously made with love and, yes, respect for the show(s) it mocks. When Sigourney Weaver loses it and starts ranting about how it's a dumb episode, nobody would design a space ship with giant crushers and fire spouts... Yeah, it's awesome!)

Discovery is more cartoonish than the actual cartoon. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Trek:_The_Animated_Series )

I gotta agree that The Orville carries the torch forward far far better than these new Star Trek shows & movies.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#412

Post by snowwrestler »

perlgeek wrote: post #339
snowwrestler wrote: post #314

The idea that naturally mild strain of the coronavirus would provide a durable benefit, but a human-created vaccine would not, seems to me like an idea that needs a lot more explanation. The mechanism of immunity should be the same between those two.

The main argument here is that finding a mild strain (and having it tested implicitly by virtue of it infecting many humans) could be faster than developing a human-created vaccine. I don't have any credentials in this field, but IMHO we should attack the problem from all possible angles, including the search for a natural, less harmful strain.

He says:

> Apart from the time it will take to develop, trial, and mass produce a vaccine (12-18 months), it is unlikely that any vaccine will be practicable. The reason why is immunity to respiratory viruses (like corona) doesn’t last long – 6 months to 2 years. We would have to keep vaccinating everyone in the world every year (or maybe every 6 months if we are unlucky). This just isn’t going to work in the real world (especially poor countries) and is one of the reasons we don’t have a vaccine for the coronavirus strains that cause the common cold. Unless we can drive the current dangerous SARS-CoV-2 strains to extinction we are going to have a problem with this disease indefinitely.

Every one of these objections also applies to a less harmful strain.

For example, one reason vaccines don't confer durable immunity to many respiratory infections is because the infectious agents change over time, migrating away from the vaccine response. Well, by the same token, a less deadly strain of such an infectious agent would also change over time at the same rate.

On the other hand if we think a naturally occurring strain would provide stable immunity over a long time, then a human-created vaccine would also be stable for a long time.

There is nothing magical about naturally occurring strains. They work in the body exactly the same way vaccines do. (Which is of course why vaccines work in the first place.)

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#414

Post by throwanem »

carapace wrote: post #411
throwanem wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then it turns out similar to "Ethics", where the virologist's work is questionably founded and potentially quite dangerous, we get a Picard speech about how sacrificing some to save others is wrong, Data and Crusher technobabble up a treatment that doubles as a vaccine, the photogenic kid gets saved at the bottom of the fourth act, Admiral Nechayev and Picard fence a bit, credits. Pretty wild to count Enterprise…

I saw a few clips of ST:Discovery and nearly had an apoplexy. When the ship spins (rolls) on its longitudinal axis and disappears (using the "spore drive"...) I pretty much lost my mind for a moment. Then it reappears with a flash that illuminates the nebula in the background . There are no clouds in space. Nebulas are big, really big. It would be light-years away. But the ship's photo-backwash lights it up like a fl…

So...you're upset to see space opera played straight in your space opera? Have you forgotten entirely about S1 of TNG, or just chosen to ignore it? DS9 is "not Roddenberry", too, what with its most universally acclaimed episode being about Sisko deliberately subverting his own principles and those of the Federation to suborn all manner of criminality, not excluding several murders, in order to deceive a neutral party into entering the war as a Federation ally. Is DS9 awful, too?

To be honest, I don't get the mockery angle at all. I mean, you're talking about a show whose first season not only has antimilitarism as a major through-line in the way Lorca's story plays out, but concludes with a war being ended by a couple of people having a conversation about why more fighting sucks for everyone, and implementing a clever technobabble-driven plan to bring about peace. There's a lot I don't love about Discovery - most of its second season, for a start - but come on, what could possibly be more Star Trek than that?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#415

Post by inyourtenement »

ubercow13 wrote: post #397
brownbat wrote: post #372

I posted and deleted a few comments. I don't know what to make of this and it's getting controversial. If it could be helpful, I'd love to improve it. I just don't know where it fits in ongoing discussions by prominent researchers on analysis of strains and types. Three things that jump out at me: a) You'll get more credibility from having a thorough lit review than from listing credentials. Linking to magazine artic…

Do you know what the commonly guessed incorrect solution to that card problem supposed to be?

8 and red. Most people don't invert the logic and realize that there is no claim that an odd number can't have a red back. I think confirmation bias accounts for missing the brown.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#416

Post by CathedralBorrow »

danieltillett wrote: post #211
ubercow13 wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re reading too much into my post, I was just wondering how to safely carry out this idea. One reason I was wondering is that manually administering the virus to people seems more akin to a vaccine in nature.

Only if you consider hanging out with someone a vaccine. As I mentioned in my reply to you it will be impossible to stop this strain from being deliberately spread by people on their own.

Wouldn't the same social distancing measures that keep the dangerous strain at bay keep the "good" one from spreading? And vice versa.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#417

Post by CathedralBorrow »

akiselev wrote: post #152
tilolebo wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a pause button, it's a playback speed button that slows down the contamination. Remember #FlattenTheCurve. What is true is that it would take waaaay longer to reach herd immunity this way. Another thing that people usually get wrong is the her immunity concept: from what I understand, it doesn't mean we ALL need to be infected. We just need to be enough, so the virus can't spread anymore.

The whole idea of herd immunity in this context is fucking nonsense . No self-respecting epidemiologist would even bring it up this early into a pandemic. Herd immunity is the last resort for the immunocompromised or unvaccinated, not the foundation for public health policy.

When would bringing up the topic be acceptable for you?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#418

Post by ajross »

danieltillett wrote: post #304
ajross wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> how would they know someone is asymptomatic? afaik they are mostly testing people who have symptoms There was literally a paper published yesterday (or the day before) on a blanket screen done on a population in germany to get some data on the undercount of asymptomatic cases. It was front page news on all the mainstream news sites... I gotta be honest. This whole discussion has an "amateur hour" vibe. I have a har…

I think what you are missing here is what is the novel part of my idea and what is the conventional. It is not novel to think of an attenuated vaccine, what is novel is to look for an attenuated strain in a pandemic using genome sequencing. I hope someone else has thought of this, but so far I haven’t seen any evidence of this. Waiting for vaccine is not a good option. This is a situation with only hard choices.

"Waiting for a vaccine" is mostly a strawman. We're being asked to wait 2-3 months for the outbreaks to reach a size where they can be contained by testing, tracing and quarantine. But that only works if people take this seriously and honor the lockdowns.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#419

Post by CathedralBorrow »

danieltillett wrote: post #323
new299 wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you do seem to be suggesting that "people spreading it around on their own" is a "solution to Covid-19"? Otherwise, what is your plan for this attenuated strain? Don't get me wrong, I think large scale sequencing or COVID19 is interesting. But think that attempting to spread a attenuated strain without regulatory approval is probably a very bad idea.

Unregulated spread by individuals is a solution, just not the one I think would be implemented if such a strain were found. I think it much more likely that the regulatory agency would quickly approve the use of the strain on the basis of the epidemiological data gathered in the process of finding it.

> I think it much more likely that the regulatory agency would quickly approve the use of the strain on the basis of the epidemiological data gathered in the process of finding it.

Have you had experience with dealing with said regulatory agencies?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#420

Post by CathedralBorrow »

danieltillett wrote: post #174
anonymouz wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the point of this. Nature has most certainly not established the long-term effects of this virus, seeing as it has only been spreading in humans for a short while. Skirting the regulations is pointless, because the important thing is the intent of the regulations. If it were just a problem with the regulations, we could also just change the regulations and give the untested vaccine. Plus, if you want to a…

If we wait for the long term we will all get infected and we will all be broke. We need to think differently. I am not arguing that we should infect people on purpose. If people chose to become infected on their own by hanging out with those infected with an attenuated strain then that is a very different legal question. Personally I think the result would be the regulatory agency would just rush the use through base…

Here's what I have trouble reconciling: You say that this attenuated virus would spread automatically -- just like a virus -- and yet no one would be infected on purpose, only if people "chose to become infected on their own by hanging out with those infected with an attenuated strain".

How much agency do I have in whether I get infected or not? It seems strange to me if it depends on the genetic makeup of the virus.

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