Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am a virologist - well I have published many papers in this area. I have a PhD in molecular microbiology and have been a tenured professor (I now work in the biotech sector). This is not intended to be a scientific paper, but a layman’s summary of the idea so non-technical people can understand the idea. It is not risky to go looking for a naturally attenuated virus. This is the first step that needs to happen.
Thank you. I certainly get the sense from the article and your comments that you are well-informed. My suggestion is really one around building trust - it'd help to have others in the same scientific field confirm and/or question the approach.
A (possible) solution to Covid-19
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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#32This seems risky but worth consideration. Can you provide peer / concept review from virologists? A few items of feedback: - You could use a title that includes a distinct word to identify your proposed solution: "Using accentuated COVID-19 strains as a (possible) solution". This helps people to communicate and refer to the idea concisely. - The top three paragraphs may be known to your target audience; consider allo…
Adding to this: While you do not recommend ZJ01 due to the potential for it to mutate back into the original strain, isn't it also quite dangerous? That would likely remain a primary concern for many - we musn't cause large scale harm intentionally. And if we don't know what effects a strain has, it makes it ethically difficult to distribute. From the ZJ01 Medrxiv[1] page you link to: "We found, in our 788 confirmed…
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#33> One thing is certain with the current situation is we need to take some risks if we are going to solve it quickly.
Looking for quick answers in a crisis is really risky. There is a natural push to try to get things back to normal as soon as possible, but developing an attenuated vaccine (even with a potential strain already in existence), takes a lot of time and testing.
I certainly agree that we should be trying to sequence every variation we can find in the wild, but even if everything works just right, it will take a lot of time. I haven’t followed enough of the reports, but how many strains have been identified thus far?
Another issue is that even just getting the reagents to collect and passage the virus is difficult as they are all needed for clinical testing. So working with live (even attenuated) virus is very difficult at the moment. But this highlights a reason why it is so critical to study these topics when we aren’t in crisis mode. Much of the current vaccine work has been adapted from earlier SARS-CoV research.
But this approach of finding a weakened strain (or generating one), is a good idea to be attempted in parallel. (I’m sure that someone is trying to passage the virus though a different host to attenuate it as we speak). The first step is to try and sequence as much as we can from the wild, but this has its own logistical difficulties. Hopefully there is a research study going on that is trying to collect as many samples as possible now, so that we can sequence later when things have calmed a bit (because there is likely going to be a second round).
I don’t intend to sound so negative on this. I largely agree that this is one avenue that needs to be studied. And from your background, I know you understand these risks/concerns. I worry about the larger public though. My main concern is that this concept can be very risky, especially with an already scared public looking for quick answers. Seriously, the last thing we need is people intentionally trying to get infected in the hope of getting a less lethal strain. This isn’t a cowpox scenario. I guess my hesitation comes down to me not liking the idea of taking too many risks for the sake of doing it quick. That’s been known to come back and bite people.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#34I'm glad people are realizing that all this social distancing is merely a pause button on the virus. Once we press play on society, exponential growth will happen again and we will have effectively rolled back the clock until we reach herd immunity through things like the OP's suggestion. At least this next time we'll hopefully have more PPE.
Exactly. There is also everyone in poor countries that is beyond the reach of expensive vaccines.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#35Note: asymptomatic at the time of testing. They may still develop symptoms over time.
https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/is-icelands-coronavir...
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#36This seems risky but worth consideration. Can you provide peer / concept review from virologists? A few items of feedback: - You could use a title that includes a distinct word to identify your proposed solution: "Using accentuated COVID-19 strains as a (possible) solution". This helps people to communicate and refer to the idea concisely. - The top three paragraphs may be known to your target audience; consider allo…
I am a virologist - well I have published many papers in this area. I have a PhD in molecular microbiology and have been a tenured professor (I now work in the biotech sector). This is not intended to be a scientific paper, but a layman’s summary of the idea so non-technical people can understand the idea. It is not risky to go looking for a naturally attenuated virus. This is the first step that needs to happen.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#37Isn't this just one of many ways to produce a vaccine, so won't it need the same long term trials for safety and effectiveness that any type of vaccine needs? Reducing this this time somehow is what I think is needed.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#38I see two problems with this approach, both political / social: - No one will want to be the one "deploying" the attenuated strain in a human and then be responsible for some unforeseen death (even if it's just 1 in a billion). Utilitarianism is not widespread nor socially accepted. Even less so in politicians, who are quite risk averse. - There is no lobby supporting it. There's no $$ to be made and the "vaccine" is…
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#39This is a repost since last time you asked how to reach Bill Gates.
I invited danieltillett to repost https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22798626 . My reason is to build up a body of community reactions to the idea, that can serve as a basis for deciding whether to promote it further. I don't know Bill Gates, but I do know some people inside YC who are hard at work on this problem, and maybe they know someone who knows someone, etc. If it's just a repetition of the previous thread,…
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly. There is also everyone in poor countries that is beyond the reach of expensive vaccines.
A country without other options might be more interested in the idea? I imagine that many first world countries would be too worried about the potential liabilities.