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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#211

Post by lordlimecat »

hkai wrote: post #165
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

A quick Google search shows that the 2008 crisis caused 500k extra deaths due to cancer alone due to lack of funds to treat it. That really shows you the scale. Also some studies from Africa showed that economic downturns reliably predict wars.

500k extra, or early deaths?

I can't imagine that 500k people got cancer from 2008, and if they had cancer they may have already been approaching death.

Numbers like that seem extremely suspect because they can be spun however you like by assuming how things would have been.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#212

Post by sershe »

pmorici wrote: post #89
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

No one I've seen make this argument seems to have any numbers to back up the "the cure is worse than the disease" argument. The do nothing case is pretty clear 1-2% of the Global population dies. Probably more because once the healthcare system is overwhelmed that percentage goes up.

That is not at all clear. The Nembro article, which based solely on the article itself looks like the ~upper bound on the ~worst case, posits 1% age adjusted deaths. The world population pyramid is very different from Italy's, so I bet it won't even be 1%.

Then, it's not about lives, it's about years of life lost. The average age of the deaths is >80 in Italy, close to that in WA (median is >80, not sure about the average). In years of life lost, one boy who was shot while the lockdown was being enforced in Kenya (iirc) is "worth" on the order of 10-20 average COVID dead (even if you don't weight earlier years of life heavier, which I would). A 30-year-old committing suicide in isolation in the US (acquaintance of a friend) is worth close to that.

Then, if you want a real example of loss of life from a major economic crisis, look at life expectancy in Russia between 1980-2000, or birth rates during the same and GD.

Finally, I would also argue having experienced the former that for (low) 100s of millions of people in ex-USSR, you have to count the 90ies as years at least partially lost, because they were spent in survival mode with giant loss of time and human potential. Personally I'd rather live a good life and die at 80 than throw away my e.g. 30ies working two jobs and trying to find where I can buy cheaper pasta, and live till 85.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#213

Post by nradov »

gruez wrote: post #203
nradov wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Availability of hospital beds is certainly important, but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die. We should deploy more ventilators but even if hospitals run out that will have only a small impact on the total infection fatality rate.

>but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die Source for this? That sounds like a shockingly high number if true.

Here's the source.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/Some-doctors-mov...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#214

Post by DanBC »

bpodgursky wrote: post #84
lisper wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.

This doesn't factor in QALYs saved at all though. The average COVID-19 death in Italy is 78 years old and sick. The average hunger death is going to be young, otherwise healthy, and in the developing world (likely somewhere in sub-saharan Africa). You can draw your own measures, but I would not personally weight these lives saved equally. I would personally throw several 78 year olds under the COVID-bus to save the l…

That comorbidity data might be a bit more complicated. https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248

> The first thing that jumps out from the medical history section of Table 1 is that 93% of those critically ill with COVID-19 were “able to live without assistance in daily activities” prior to developing the disease. That typically suggests reasonable health. 3/8

> Secondly, just 7% of 2,124 intensive care admissions had “very severe comorbidities”. That’s significantly less than typical viral pneumonia patients (as illustrated in table 1)

> So 19 out of 20 were free of the most severe life-limiting conditions. 4/8

> Lastly, for now, the age distribution. Most critical cases are aged between 50 and 80.

> People of this age, without severe comorbidities, could reasonably have expected to have years of life ahead of them before they contracted this disease. 5/8

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#215

Post by nradov »

lordlimecat wrote: post #210
gruez wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die Source for this? That sounds like a shockingly high number if true.

When you start selecting for patients who are the most vulnerable and suffer the most acute cases, it doesn't seem surprising that you can end with a high mortality rate.

There's more to it than that. Doctors actually treating COVID-19 patients in hospitals report that the disease progression is significantly different than the usual ARDS.

https://www.evms.edu/covid-19/medical_information_resources/...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#216

Post by DanBC »

sershe wrote: post #212
pmorici wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one I've seen make this argument seems to have any numbers to back up the "the cure is worse than the disease" argument. The do nothing case is pretty clear 1-2% of the Global population dies. Probably more because once the healthcare system is overwhelmed that percentage goes up.

That is not at all clear. The Nembro article, which based solely on the article itself looks like the ~upper bound on the ~worst case, posits 1% age adjusted deaths. The world population pyramid is very different from Italy's, so I bet it won't even be 1%. Then, it's not about lives, it's about years of life lost. The average age of the deaths is >80 in Italy, close to that in WA (median is >80, not sure about the av…

The Italian data is skewed old. We're not seeing that so clearly in Spain, France, or the UK.

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#217

Post by filoleg »

DanBC wrote: post #214
bpodgursky wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't factor in QALYs saved at all though. The average COVID-19 death in Italy is 78 years old and sick. The average hunger death is going to be young, otherwise healthy, and in the developing world (likely somewhere in sub-saharan Africa). You can draw your own measures, but I would not personally weight these lives saved equally. I would personally throw several 78 year olds under the COVID-bus to save the l…

That comorbidity data might be a bit more complicated. https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248 > The first thing that jumps out from the medical history section of Table 1 is that 93% of those critically ill with COVID-19 were “able to live without assistance in daily activities” prior to developing the disease. That typically suggests reasonable health. 3/8 > Secondly, just 7% of 2,124 intensive…

>> The first thing that jumps out from the medical history section of Table 1 is that 93% of those critically ill with COVID-19 were “able to live without assistance in daily activities” prior to developing the disease. That typically suggests reasonable health. 3/8

Not making any comments on the rest of your points, but I have to heavily disagree with this one. Sure, people who have cardiovascular and heart issues, diabetes, asthma, etc. are all "able to live without assistance in daily activities". That doesn't suggest reasonable health to me at all, it just tells me that they are able to live their lives without a caretaker by their side.

And data from Italy suggests that over 99% of the people who died from COVID had existing conditions like those[0].

0. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#218

Post by nradov »

leereeves wrote: post #207
nradov wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poverty kills people, too. That has to be considered when deciding on the appropriate response.

And lying in bed all day kills people too. I'm concerned about elderly people I know who aren't getting enough activity during the lockdown.

I don't know why you were downvoted. Frailty is an epidemic among the elderly. Once they lose muscle tone and mobility they tend to die quickly. It does little good to avoid virus infection if you end up breaking your hip because of muscle atrophy.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4098658/

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#219

Post by three_seagrass »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #157
three_seagrass wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The federal government should have enacted stay at home measures. By leaving it up to the states, it's been bungled and the covid outbreak is lasting longer and killing more people. This leads to stay at home needing extensions and a further drain on the economy.

The Federal government does not have the authority, it is expressly prohibited. What you think “should” have happened is literally impossible without dissolution of the US government. This is not remotely controversial, the Supreme Court has visited this many times. States are sovereign and autonomous entities for this purpose, same as for most things. A surprisingly small number of Americans have any understanding o…

"Enacting" stay at home measures are as simple as recommending them or working with states to set a standard set of measure, which did not happen. Instead, the focus was on keeping people working for the economy.

You're too quick to interpret something illegal just so you can jump on the complaining-about-education band wagon.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#220

Post by mindslight »

monocasa wrote: post #95
chroem- wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no downside risk. The USG and Fed will do everything in their power to keep us in a continuous state of "numbers go up." Borrowed billions of dollars to buy your own stock, and now you're underwater? Don't worry! We'll bail you out.

They're on the edge of what they can do with that and not kick off an inflationary spiral.

"Inflationary spiral" is the explicit policy. The assertions seem to be that stocks must always go up, and housing must always go up. That's inflation. Manufactured goods don't go up as much because they continually cost less to make and distribute, usually through offshoring and consolidation, hollowing out local economies.
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