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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#91

Post by cma »

chrisco255 wrote: post #86
lisper wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.

No, because it's unlikely that 100% of the population will get infected. What disease has ever infected 100% of the population? None. Diseases hit an inflection point in spread, before they fall off. At any rate, how many people died in the wake of the Great Depression? World War 2 was indirectly caused by it. We lost 85 million people when the population was only 2 billion. And that's not even counting the people th…

With the updated estimates of R0 it would take until around 80%+ to develop herd immunity.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#92

Post by secondo »

aianus wrote: post #68
lisper wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.

IMF says 500 million people worldwide who were out of poverty will or have returned to poverty because of the recession. IMF poverty line is Edit: it was Oxfam that published the report to inform the IMF and World Bank at their meeting next week

IMF says 500 million people worldwide who were out of poverty will or have returned to poverty because of the recession.

It's a relevant perspective, but I can't seem to find any source for IMF claiming that. Do you have one or are you referring to research publicized by Oxfam[1]?

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52211206

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#93

Post by TechBro8615 »

andbberger wrote: post #33
blhack wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The increase in the last two weeks is because it's becoming obvious that: 1) The US's response to this was competent. 2) The measures put in place are working. 3) The projections are improving substantially . 4) The time horizon is shrinking. 5) We are starting to understand how to treat this. (+ "in the us"). Two weeks ago we were looking at places like Italy, and extrapolating that the US could see deaths in the mi…

The US's response could not be described as anything even approaching competent. This is still just getting started. Let's check back in a few months and see how this comment has aged...

This is an emotionally charged political comment. If you only watch CNN and read the NYT, you might think this.

But if you look at the curve, and per-capita death numbers, the US seems to be doing a good job managing the crisis relative to its size.

Has anyone in the US died because they didn’t have a ventilator? Not that I’m aware of. Washington State is already on the downslope.

The history books will be very kind to Trump for his response, much to the chagrin of an inexplicably biased literati class rooting against him.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#94

Post by mrfusion »

lisper wrote: post #46
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.

It seems you’re presenting a False dilemma. Doing nothing isn’t the only alternative. Sweden is one example of a different approach.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#95

Post by monocasa »

chroem- wrote: post #62
alephnan wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s rigged insofar that maybe people have insider information we don’t

There's no downside risk. The USG and Fed will do everything in their power to keep us in a continuous state of "numbers go up." Borrowed billions of dollars to buy your own stock, and now you're underwater? Don't worry! We'll bail you out.

They're on the edge of what they can do with that and not kick off an inflationary spiral.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#96

Post by mrfusion »

DVassallo wrote: post #85
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

Covid-19 has a non-negligible chance of killing a billion people. When there's risk of ruin, cost-benefit analysis doesn't make sense anymore. (Russian roulette is never worth playing, regardless of the payoff.) Our actions to avoid covid-19 need to be judged on what could happen, not on what actually happens. You get it wrong once, and we disappear.

It’s has a fatality rate of 1/7? Be reasonable man.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#97

Post by hnaccy »

NomDePlum wrote: post #79
jdc wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't help but think we could close a lot less shops if everyone wore (even sub-N95) masks

So you want to speculate on this? All evidence is strongly against what you are proposing. It would without doubt lead to more deaths. Why would anyone even consider the course of action you are proposing? I've already had people close to me die. You should think some more and be able to provide a reasoned argument or be quiet until you can on this.

Taiwan seems to have done it.

Compare NYC and Taipai public transit during virus it's stark:

https://i.redd.it/ufezdm2hjul41.jpg

https://www.thenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/commute...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#98

Post by herval »

swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

There’s evidence the lockdowns are actually REDUCING other deaths, such as from car accidents, air pollution or violent crimes:

https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/smart-cities...

https://news.slashdot.org/story/20/03/15/2024248/will-corona...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#99

Post by Ididntdothis »

threeseed wrote: post #60
Ididntdothis wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am sure a lot of politicians are struggling with this decision right now.

Not really. Consensus from almost all countries is that you need to quarantine and shut down the economy in order to beat this. Those that believed that they could get around this with herd immunity are either paying a huge price (UK) or about to (Sweden). And those politicians that took hard measures actually have been rewarded (Australia) and those that didn't punished (UK, US).

But when do you open up again? We can't keep the lockdown until there are no cases.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#100

Post by jjnoakes »

TechBro8615 wrote: post #81
lisper wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.

This line of reasoning assumes that containment is feasible at this point. Is it? Or will everyone get the virus eventually? One ironic downside of “flattening the curve” is that it makes it longer. So, barring a vaccine or effective therapeutic treatment, we will all get the virus eventually (but in an orderly fashion, which is good for the health system), and that 75 million deaths will become a reality. Note that’…

I don't think this is true, is it? Most mathematical models I've seen definitely have a much lower number of total infected when the curve is flattened significantly.
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