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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#81

Post by TechBro8615 »

lisper wrote: post #46
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.

This line of reasoning assumes that containment is feasible at this point. Is it? Or will everyone get the virus eventually?

One ironic downside of “flattening the curve” is that it makes it longer. So, barring a vaccine or effective therapeutic treatment, we will all get the virus eventually (but in an orderly fashion, which is good for the health system), and that 75 million deaths will become a reality. Note that’s also assuming a 1% death rate which may be a vast overestimate depending on asymptomatic percentages.

That said, I tend to agree with you that we should keep social distancing in place until we are able to contain new cases, or until we have a much better understanding of the virus itself. At this point there is just too much uncertainty, so it’s better to wait it out until we can establish some clarity and have a better idea of how to approach therapeutics.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#82

Post by tootie »

andbberger wrote: post #33
blhack wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The increase in the last two weeks is because it's becoming obvious that: 1) The US's response to this was competent. 2) The measures put in place are working. 3) The projections are improving substantially . 4) The time horizon is shrinking. 5) We are starting to understand how to treat this. (+ "in the us"). Two weeks ago we were looking at places like Italy, and extrapolating that the US could see deaths in the mi…

The US's response could not be described as anything even approaching competent. This is still just getting started. Let's check back in a few months and see how this comment has aged...

Trump has been true to form in his lying and aggrandizing at every point, but I think the public has just gotten used to it. The CDC and state governors have been mixed, but the hardest hit states (WA, NY, CA) have been pretty aggressive.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#83

Post by threeseed »

visava wrote: post #72
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

Time to look at out of the box solutions https://www.stephenharrodbuhner.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/...

I really wish people who followed this sort of thing actually had some integrity and honesty. And by that I mean when they do have an illness or disease that they don't resort to "Western medicine" and instead relied on Gaia to get them through it.

At least then the problem would sort itself out.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#84

Post by bpodgursky »

lisper wrote: post #46
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.

This doesn't factor in QALYs saved at all though.

The average COVID-19 death in Italy is 78 years old and sick.

The average hunger death is going to be young, otherwise healthy, and in the developing world (likely somewhere in sub-saharan Africa).

You can draw your own measures, but I would not personally weight these lives saved equally. I would personally throw several 78 year olds under the COVID-bus to save the life of one young child. I think most people would draw similar lines.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#85

Post by DVassallo »

swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

Covid-19 has a non-negligible chance of killing a billion people. When there's risk of ruin, cost-benefit analysis doesn't make sense anymore. (Russian roulette is never worth playing, regardless of the payoff.)

Our actions to avoid covid-19 need to be judged on what could happen, not on what actually happens. You get it wrong once, and we disappear.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#86

Post by chrisco255 »

lisper wrote: post #46
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.

No, because it's unlikely that 100% of the population will get infected. What disease has ever infected 100% of the population? None. Diseases hit an inflection point in spread, before they fall off. At any rate, how many people died in the wake of the Great Depression? World War 2 was indirectly caused by it. We lost 85 million people when the population was only 2 billion. And that's not even counting the people that died in the subsequent decades when communism took over China and Mao and Stalin had their reign of terror.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#87

Post by jmcgough »

mrep wrote: post #76
jklein11 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

do you have sources for this >What we fundamentally got wrong is that ventilators don't work in 66% - 90% of cases

"The largest study so far to look at mortality among coronavirus patients on ventilators was done by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre in London. It found that among 98 ventilated patients in the U.K., just 33 were discharged alive. The numbers from a study of Wuhan, China, are even grimmer. Only 3 of 22 ventilated patients survived" [0]. [0]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/826…

Cuomo has already said this iirc; most people who go on a ventilator don't come off of it alive. That doesn't make it pointless to even have ventilators though, a 40% survival rate is certainly better than a 0% survival rate for those who need a ventilator.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#88

Post by DennisP »

icelancer wrote: post #22
baby wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The increase we’ve seen in the last two weeks make zero sense to me. It’s almost making me lose trust in the market as I feel like it’s rigged. We’re in a complete state of unknown, nobody knows when this will be over, unemployment raises like crazy, the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

A bunch of people sold off in a panic, a lot of volatility hit, people like Buffett bought at the bottom (and publicly advised others to do so), so who knows. Unemployment is artificially high for now. Companies are incentivized through PPP to lay people off, especially with UI bonuses.

From what I've seen, Buffett hasn't started buying yet.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-wondering-where-war...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-warren-buffett-ignoring-c...

He did however sell some airline stock.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/06/warren-buffett-sel...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#89

Post by pmorici »

swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

No one I've seen make this argument seems to have any numbers to back up the "the cure is worse than the disease" argument. The do nothing case is pretty clear 1-2% of the Global population dies. Probably more because once the healthcare system is overwhelmed that percentage goes up.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#90

Post by topspin »

noway421 wrote: post #44
topspin wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who are you quoting? The only hit Google returns is you, in this thread.

I'm paraphrasing from memory a conversation I had. The gist is that volatility goes away with the time because market learns to anticipate and smooth out the crises, even if it's an unexpected out-of-blue event, since over sufficient enough time it would have happened at least once. Maybe this still holds true, but the time frame for that must be massive.

I see. Effectively no one then. You just put some stuff in quotes for authority.
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