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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#201

Post by nradov »

jobigoud wrote: post #188
nradov wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We'll find out in a few weeks whether the herd immunity approach is effective by looking at what happens in the poorest countries. Some of them have minimal ability to lock down the economy or quarantine people due to lack of resources, dysfunctional healthcare systems, limited food reserves, and weak governments. So the virus is going to run its course regardless of what anyone wants. It's a tragic situation but the…

I think Iran was the first in this category.

Iran isn't particularly poor. Hardly anyone starves to death there. The real test will come when the virus hits places like refugee camps in Bangladesh.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#202

Post by chronofar »

pmorici wrote: post #89
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

No one I've seen make this argument seems to have any numbers to back up the "the cure is worse than the disease" argument. The do nothing case is pretty clear 1-2% of the Global population dies. Probably more because once the healthcare system is overwhelmed that percentage goes up.

Part of this argument, for me at least, isn't number based. I'm of the opinion that culturally we put far too much value on being alive and far too little on quality of life. You can see it in our conversation (here most people just want to talk about death numbers), our laws (ie euthanasia is illegal), and our news cycles.

Everyone dies. All of humanity does not exist for most of the age of the universe, to say nothing of individuals. That's a trite thing to say but it is no less true. Not everyone gets to live a good life, even fewer in situations like this.

Our DNA wants to stay alive, the existential dread is understandable, but culturally I think we'd be a lot healthier if we put more value in quality of lives than the preservation of them. Now balancing this is not easy and I'm not saying in our current situation we should just lift all measures, but if framed that way the conversation starts to take on a different tone than just looking at potential death rates as the overall guiding function.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#203

Post by gruez »

nradov wrote: post #200
gruez wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. Mortality for the virus would significantly increase if emergency rooms are overcrowded. No beds/ventilators = patients that would have survived dying. Last I've heard, around 15% of infected need to be hospitalized.

Availability of hospital beds is certainly important, but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die. We should deploy more ventilators but even if hospitals run out that will have only a small impact on the total infection fatality rate.

>but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die

Source for this? That sounds like a shockingly high number if true.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#204

Post by quickthrowman »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #157
three_seagrass wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The federal government should have enacted stay at home measures. By leaving it up to the states, it's been bungled and the covid outbreak is lasting longer and killing more people. This leads to stay at home needing extensions and a further drain on the economy.

The Federal government does not have the authority, it is expressly prohibited. What you think “should” have happened is literally impossible without dissolution of the US government. This is not remotely controversial, the Supreme Court has visited this many times. States are sovereign and autonomous entities for this purpose, same as for most things. A surprisingly small number of Americans have any understanding o…

It has nothing to do with legality and everything to do with Republican governors being scared to act without Trump’s approval since they’re scared of losing their power. All Trump had to do was recommend stay-at-home orders be implemented by the states and it would’ve happened. You saw it with Florida and Georgia, and the Georgia governor had the nerve to claim he didn’t know there was asymptomatic spread.

This is not a legal issue, it’s a political one.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#205

Post by quickthrowman »

mrfusion wrote: post #116
three_seagrass wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The federal government should have enacted stay at home measures. By leaving it up to the states, it's been bungled and the covid outbreak is lasting longer and killing more people. This leads to stay at home needing extensions and a further drain on the economy.

I really think martial law at the federal level would have been the end of our democracy. I don’t think it’s a good trade off. The current measures aren’t doing so bad in the realm of possible outcomes.

You’re being pedantic. Some Republican governors were scared to enact stay-at-home without Trump’s blessing. It has nothing to do with what’s legally possible in the US.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#206

Post by swsieber »

swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

There's all this talk of "this is what the virus unchecked leads to, so we can't let up".

I'm not suggesting we throw up our hands and attend tightly packed concerts.

I'm suggesting we stop pushing for an R value of 0, and instead deliberate what the least costly options are (both economicly and in human life) keeping the R value under 1.

We might not be conciously pushing for an R value of 0, but it appears that way.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#207

Post by leereeves »

nradov wrote: post #196
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Data matters, facts matter. You're talking about a difference between a massive number of people dying, and a massive number divided by two dying, and then arguing that a massive number divided by two is not nearly as serious. Nobody knows what the true numbers will be, but only the rough range they'll be in, so arguing over a factor of two is meaningless. These are terrifying numbers either way. > If you don't you…

Poverty kills people, too. That has to be considered when deciding on the appropriate response.

And lying in bed all day kills people too. I'm concerned about elderly people I know who aren't getting enough activity during the lockdown.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#208

Post by pmorici »

javagram wrote: post #175
pmorici wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Universal mask wearing is part of the approach they have taken in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore and it seems to have largely worked in those places. The whole "masks don't work" line being pushed by the US government and the media seems to be about keeping people from buying masks that are needed in the hospitals. In the process they are sort of lying to people about the effectiveness of mask wearing as a piece…

> The whole "masks don't work" line being pushed by the US government and the media seems to be about keeping people from buying masks that are needed in the hospitals I actually don’t think this is correct, it’s a reasonable assumption but actually the “masks don’t work” has been accepted Western medical dogma for decades. They were giving the same advice years ago even in times of no mask shortage - to only wear a…

Confusion between the different mask standards and their effectiveness is also a point where I think people are talking past each other.

NIH has a study on their website that says basic surgical masks are roughly equivalent in protection or N95's in practical real word settings when respiratory illness is involved. [0]

There is also supposedly a huge supply of the Chinese N95 standard equivalent "KN95" masks available. They are said to be made in the same way but the factories that make them haven't gotten regulatory approval from the US Government.

Why not import KN95's and give them out to the public since healthcare can't / won't use them.

[0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4868605/

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#209

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

leereeves wrote: post #207
nradov wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poverty kills people, too. That has to be considered when deciding on the appropriate response.

And lying in bed all day kills people too. I'm concerned about elderly people I know who aren't getting enough activity during the lockdown.

If there's a rigorous nationwide shutdown for 6 weeks, then the economy can partially open up again and people can go out more (people can still go outside now, as long as they stay away from people they don't live with - I know plenty of old people who are in self-imposed quarantine but still go on walks). This also requires the US to build up its testing and contact-tracing capabilities, so that it can keep the virus from getting out of control again.

Unfortunately, the short-sighted rush to reopen everything too quickly, or not to shut it down in the first place, is undermining these efforts. The shutdown worked in China, where it was strictly observed and enforced for several weeks. I hope the US can do the same.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#210

Post by lordlimecat »

gruez wrote: post #203
nradov wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Availability of hospital beds is certainly important, but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die. We should deploy more ventilators but even if hospitals run out that will have only a small impact on the total infection fatality rate.

>but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die Source for this? That sounds like a shockingly high number if true.

When you start selecting for patients who are the most vulnerable and suffer the most acute cases, it doesn't seem surprising that you can end with a high mortality rate.
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