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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#81

Post by danieltillett »

anonymouz wrote: post #57

It seems the reason the vaccine will take so long (12-18months) to develop is because it needs to be tested for long-term safety which takes a trial with long-term monitoring. As this is essentially a sort of (active) vaccine, how do you propose ensuring it's long-term safety? It seems you'd run into essentially the same problem as with developing the vaccine.

By doing an end run around the regulations. Actually even if you were to follow all the vaccine regulations by choice this would still be faster as it would have already been tested in human. Nature has run the trials for us.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#82

Post by ed_balls »

I've been thinking about this a few days ago when I went into the wikipedia rabbit hole about vaccinations and inoculation.

A few questions:

- How about the dengue fever scenario? (Immunity to less pathogenic strain can cause more severe reaction with a different strain). Can we asses the risk somehow?

> Apart from the time it will take to develop, trial, and mass produce a vaccine (12-18 months), it is unlikely that any vaccine will be practicable. The reason why is immunity to respiratory viruses (like corona) doesn’t last long – 6 months to 2 years

Is there any proof that this is the case with this virus?

Is is possible to do the infection outside the human body?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#83

Post by Lordarminius »

danieltillett wrote: post #71
elmolino89 wrote: post #64

Virus can be asymptomatic for a number of reasons. Host factors, such as age, (speculation) history of the previous coronavirus but not covid-19 infections, etc. Going after covid-19 genomes in a group of asymptomatic and symptomatic 70+ years old with sampling from different regions/countries may give us better data. Finding a mutated strain which never gives symptoms in old people from diverse locations, diet, heal…

Yes. What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case.

>What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case

How about 10 to 50 million ?

I live in Nigeria. Between December and late February, many people in Nigeria and Ghana report experiencing symptoms similar to those that could be caused moderate COVID-19 infection. These included, fever, diarhoea, cough, sore throat, malaise.

Many physicians and scientists I know think it we may have had a mild outbreak of the disease. If so, was this reduced severity due to a mild strain of the virus or to other factors ? It warrants investigation. Your proposal and the theory underlying it make a lot of sense.

I would really like to be able to dig deeper into this.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#84

Post by choeger »

danieltillett wrote: post #74
choeger wrote: post #61

Stupid question: if you only search people with mild or even asymptomatic cases, how does that even tell you something about the virus? Should you not also search in (many) severe cases for the candidate, to exclude it from the list of dangerous virii?

There are no stupid questions, just stupid politicians. We are looking for an attenuated strain and that will be found in people with a mild case. We could sequence all cases, but we would exclude any strain that puts someone in hospital so it is a waste of resources to sequence viruses from people in hospital. From a practical perspective it is better to concentrate on people with only mild cases.

But honestly, if you only look into people with mild cases, how do you know the virus causes these mildness?

If I pick 1k people with mild cases at random, I will find pretty much any strain that currently is in circulation. How do I know which strain is harmless?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#85

Post by danieltillett »

buboard wrote: post #62

Considering that we are now in a shutdown, and assuming that most symptomatic people do get tested and isolate themselves, doesnt that mean there is pressure for asymptomatic strains to evolve and keep spreading faster in the population anyway? they would be more likely to exist in the early epidemics, specifically south korea which aggressively quarantines people, but does not impose lockdowns, letting the asymptoma…

There is really no selection pressure on the current dangerous strain right now. If it was killing 50-60% of people infected then yes the selection pressure would be there, but at a death rate of 1.5%-2% there basically is very little selection pressure on the timescales we are interested in.

It doesn’t really matter to us today if this virus eventually becomes less dangerous in the next 500 years. We need to speed things up a little.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#86

Post by danieltillett »

Gupie wrote: post #65
danieltillett wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I address this in the post. The answer is no it is not just another vaccine approach.

Do you mean this "virus would not be a vaccine from a regulatory perspective"? In that case it is just another vaccine approach, but one that you alledge falls outside the current regulations. Do you think the regulations need to change due to the emergency?

This is a question that really is unimportant at this point. What matters is what we can do today.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#87

Post by danieltillett »

raverbashing wrote: post #76
ziga wrote: post #35

> More than 50% of the people infected with SARS-CoV-19 are asymptomatic (i.e. they have no illness). Note: asymptomatic at the time of testing. They may still develop symptoms over time. https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/is-icelands-coronavir... https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1246196001775460358

Are they tracking that statistic? How many people who test positive later develop the symptoms? Apparently 80% of those tested later get symptoms: https://twitter.com/TonyBurnetti/status/1246258723774963713

Yes it appears that most people infected eventually get some symptoms. What matters is if they end up in hospital in the ICU or not.

If we can find a strain that just makes you feel like you have a cold that you get over in a week or so then that is what we want.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#88

Post by drewblaisdell »

user_50123890 wrote: post #50

I don't think the mutations are the reason for asymptomatic cases. Coronaviruses mutate very slowly. More likely, viral load, immune system strength, overall age and the genetics of the person infected are what determines if the infection is fought off before any symptoms are shown

For my own understanding: where can I read about how coronaviruses mutate slowly?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#89

Post by danieltillett »

londons_explore wrote: post #77
danieltillett wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case.

You probably won't find that... You might find a strain where 99.9% of people get a mild case. Who is going to be the person to recommend deliberately spreading that strain to the world population, knowing that 0.1% of the world, 7 million people, will end up in a hospital and die? Sure, overall, fewer people might die, but the reality is whichever world leader makes that call has effectively just signed a death warr…

I think we can do better than 0.1% death rate. In principle there is no reason we can’t find a strain that is no more dangerous than the coronaviruses that cause the common cold.

One thing is certain and that is unless we go out and look we won’t find anything.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#90

Post by buboard »

danieltillett wrote: post #85
buboard wrote: post #62

Considering that we are now in a shutdown, and assuming that most symptomatic people do get tested and isolate themselves, doesnt that mean there is pressure for asymptomatic strains to evolve and keep spreading faster in the population anyway? they would be more likely to exist in the early epidemics, specifically south korea which aggressively quarantines people, but does not impose lockdowns, letting the asymptoma…

There is really no selection pressure on the current dangerous strain right now. If it was killing 50-60% of people infected then yes the selection pressure would be there, but at a death rate of 1.5%-2% there basically is very little selection pressure on the timescales we are interested in. It doesn’t really matter to us today if this virus eventually becomes less dangerous in the next 500 years. We need to speed t…

> If it was killing 50-60% of people infected then yes the selection pressure would be there

it isnt killing, but it's isolating them, preventing its spread

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