Stupid question: if you only search people with mild or even asymptomatic cases, how does that even tell you something about the virus? Should you not also search in (many) severe cases for the candidate, to exclude it from the list of dangerous virii?
A (possible) solution to Covid-19
61–70 of 585 posts
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#62Considering that we are now in a shutdown, and assuming that most symptomatic people do get tested and isolate themselves, doesnt that mean there is pressure for asymptomatic strains to evolve and keep spreading faster in the population anyway? they would be more likely to exist in the early epidemics, specifically south korea which aggressively quarantines people, but does not impose lockdowns, letting the asymptomatic spread
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#63I see two problems with this approach, both political / social: - No one will want to be the one "deploying" the attenuated strain in a human and then be responsible for some unforeseen death (even if it's just 1 in a billion). Utilitarianism is not widespread nor socially accepted. Even less so in politicians, who are quite risk averse. - There is no lobby supporting it. There's no $$ to be made and the "vaccine" is…
The flu vaccine (and others) kills more than 1 in a billion yet we still use it.
And it would not be free, you still need to collect this strain, replicate it at massive scale and then distribute it.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#64Virus can be asymptomatic for a number of reasons. Host factors, such as age, (speculation) history of the previous coronavirus but not covid-19 infections, etc.
Going after covid-19 genomes in a group of asymptomatic and symptomatic 70+ years old with sampling from different regions/countries may give us better data.
Finding a mutated strain which never gives symptoms in old people from diverse locations, diet, health status etc. is the holy grail of this approach.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#65Isn't this just one of many ways to produce a vaccine, so won't it need the same long term trials for safety and effectiveness that any type of vaccine needs? Reducing this this time somehow is what I think is needed.
I address this in the post. The answer is no it is not just another vaccine approach.
Do you mean this "virus would not be a vaccine from a regulatory perspective"? In that case it is just another vaccine approach, but one that you alledge falls outside the current regulations. Do you think the regulations need to change due to the emergency?
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#66It seems the reason the vaccine will take so long (12-18months) to develop is because it needs to be tested for long-term safety which takes a trial with long-term monitoring. As this is essentially a sort of (active) vaccine, how do you propose ensuring it's long-term safety? It seems you'd run into essentially the same problem as with developing the vaccine.
It seems to me that the whole article describes to me an alternative way to find a vaccine . Maybe someone can enlighten me: aren't there vaccines that are simply rather harmless mutations/relatives of the virus but trigger the same immune reaction?
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#67I don't think the mutations are the reason for asymptomatic cases. Coronaviruses mutate very slowly. More likely, viral load, immune system strength, overall age and the genetics of the person infected are what determines if the infection is fought off before any symptoms are shown
What is viral load, and doesn't it eventually become the same for everyone infected after some time during which the virus multiplies?
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
It would probably be helpful to mention that at the start or end of the post. Clear, non-inflated credentials/background with links. (I sometimes see this in italics at the top)
It is not really my style to boast about myself, but yes I should at least provide a link to the about me page.
Sort of a weird ask, but as a real, no shit, virologist, what do you think about changing your messaging to make content more accessible to lazy readers?
I have some half baked ideas about tradeoffs in infection rate and fatality, but I'm worse than a layman, I'm a layman with an opinion.
I'd sorta thought a virus could be real lethal(like ebola) ore real infectious(like a cold) but it's kinda hard to be both at the same time.
it _seems_ like there's a mapping between getting read (infection rate) and convincing people (fatality).
to be super explicit, is messaging a virus? is there a tradeoff in how the message spreads vs how convincing it is?
You've probably got other things to do, but it seems like there's a parallel there, even if imperfect, that's worth looking at. If you got a minute, I'd love to read your thoughts.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#69In theory the idea would work. People being cooperative enough is where I'm skeptical. I assume anyone in the high risk group would volunteer to receive the less-dangerous strain and when the incentive of lowering risk of death is obvious. I speculate young people wouldn't volunteer unless they have a health issue placing them in the high risk group.
>I speculate young people wouldn't volunteer unless they have a health issue placing them in the high risk group. I suspect lots of young people would happily volunteer if it meant their life could return to normal. Heck, I'd bet even for the current strain, with a ~0.1% risk of death for young people, quite a few people would volunteer to get it if it meant they could get out of lockdown.
I'm not disagreeing with that opinion. I just haven't observed young adults taking the lockdown seriously.
I personally work from home (as one of the privileged few being a programmer) and when I do go outside I take social distancing serious. My health in general isn't great although I'm not old (early 30s) and which is why I don't leave my apartment much anymore. I live in a college area and young adults are still going over to each others apartments and without practicing social distancing when going out to buy groceries. I'm in Quebec for context. I've heard it isn't much different in the USA.
Maybe the (possible) solution could work without young people on board.
Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
I invited danieltillett to repost https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22798626 . My reason is to build up a body of community reactions to the idea, that can serve as a basis for deciding whether to promote it further. I don't know Bill Gates, but I do know some people inside YC who are hard at work on this problem, and maybe they know someone who knows someone, etc. If it's just a repetition of the previous thread,…
I know you often do so anyways, but perhaps these kinds of reposts deserve a comment explaining their circumstances.
I don't think this would add much value, because it would attract attention away from submissions to the meta-business of their provenance on HN.
I'm wary of adding bookkeeping facilities for that reason generally.