161–170 of 227 posts
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There's no downside risk. The USG and Fed will do everything in their power to keep us in a continuous state of "numbers go up." Borrowed billions of dollars to buy your own stock, and now you're underwater? Don't worry! We'll bail you out.
They're on the edge of what they can do with that and not kick off an inflationary spiral.
At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…
I think we should also view lockdown costs in life time lost. Hundreds of millions of people now lost a month or more of their lives
At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…
If you assume a mortality rate of 1% (which is probably in the ballpark) then you can expect 75 million deaths without intervention. So far world-wide we've had about 95,000 deaths. So doing nothing would result in about 700 times as many deaths as have occurred so far. I'd say it's probably to soon to throw in the towel.
The IFR represents how many of those who got it and ended up dead (regardless of whether their case was tested, diagnosed or confirmed). It doesn't represent the whole population.
The same study estimated 60-80% of people could eventually contract the disease. 70% * 0.66% = 0.46% mortality rate from the disease. This would equate to about 35 million people globally. (70% infection rate is not going to happen overnight and I would hope that one way or another fewer people get infected than this - on the Diamond Princess where they tested nearly everyone, only about 25% of passengers got infected - but we will see.)
It's important to understand the definitions of all the terms involved. A misunderstanding of the statistics has resulted in panic -- people see a 5% death rate from a specific group of confirmed cases and assume that translates to their demographic, or overall population etc. when it does not.
The mortality rate is the percentage of the total population that dies. The infection fatality rate is the percentage of all cases, diagnosed or undiagnosed. The case fatality rate is the percentage of diagnosed cases. [2]
Not saying it's not a serious disease, 35 million deaths is many many times more than the flu. But we aren't going to lose 1% of humanity to this disease. And personally I would advocate for a smart and measured response like we've seen in South Korea or Taiwan over a panicked and destructive response like we are seeing in the US and UK.
[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…
That really shows you the scale.
Also some studies from Africa showed that economic downturns reliably predict wars.
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The increase in the last two weeks is because it's becoming obvious that: 1) The US's response to this was competent. 2) The measures put in place are working. 3) The projections are improving substantially . 4) The time horizon is shrinking. 5) We are starting to understand how to treat this. (+ "in the us"). Two weeks ago we were looking at places like Italy, and extrapolating that the US could see deaths in the mi…
Back in February, there were a handful of cases popping up here and there. And then growing in each hotspot from 5 to 10 to 20, etc. It didn't take long for things to get out of control. Without some major game-changer in the next two months, its hard to see a reason why the same thing won't just happen again. Hopefully over the summer it's not as contagious due to hot weather.
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There is always lots of volatility at a bottom. The stock market thought that the Great Depression was over quickly also. At the end of the day, either the market is right or wrong.
How can the market be wrong?! The market is the market.
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How can the market be wrong?! The market is the market.
The market today strongly disagrees with the market yesterday.
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A bunch of people sold off in a panic, a lot of volatility hit, people like Buffett bought at the bottom (and publicly advised others to do so), so who knows. Unemployment is artificially high for now. Companies are incentivized through PPP to lay people off, especially with UI bonuses.
How are companies incentivized to layoff staff through PPP? My understanding is one of the eligibility requirements is that you can't have reduced your staff since Feb 15th, and if you have, you need to re-hire them to become eligible. The entire point of PPP is to incentivize companies _not_ to layoff their staff.
This is all contingent on you re-hiring them, of course. Otherwise it's bad for the employees and you might get penalized under PPP. But restaurants around the nation are axing their entire staff and promising to bring them back June 30th, while maxing out PPP loans. Plenty of other businesses, too.
>> The entire point of PPP is to incentivize companies _not_ to layoff their staff.
Yes, I am aware. Would you also believe that the government had competing incentives with another program in unemployment insurance that caused this situation inadvertently?
We almost did this at my company; our accountant ran the numbers and we would have benefited to the tune of nearly six figures in doing so (spending the excess on "qualifying purchases" with the remaining 25% like rent), but I felt bad exposing my employees to the phone trees and websites of the unemployment office. They're overloaded AND incompetent.