Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says • Hacker News Board

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#11

Post by galacticaactual » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 1:18 AM UTC

magicsmoke wrote: post #8

galacticaactual wrote: post #3

How a pandemic of this nature was not planned for, war gamed, and drilled until we could gain SOME intuition as to the optimal actions and effects countries should take to avoid economic meltdown while doing the vulnerable population right is beyond me. The U.N. was created to promulgate this kind of cooperation, and here it has utterly failed.

The UN was created so countries like the US and USSR could have a forum to talk with each other and avoid nuking the entire world. How well do you think the UN would have helped those two cold war superpowers coordinate on a global pandemic? What you're looking for is a world government, not an international forum.

One would surmise that when such a forum exists, it should be utilized to plan for global events that affect every country, regardless of what the original intentions were of setting it up.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#12

Post by pjmorris » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 1:19 AM UTC

mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

There's a reason for the term 'dead cat bounce.'

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#13

Post by mraudiobook_com » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 1:20 AM UTC

mdgrech23 wrote: post #9

mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

Give it some time - way to early to say it's recovering. Yes it's gone up, like a lot but that may be temporary.

This is how this one's going to go down, it's the insanity of runaway inflation. We'll all be living in million dollar homes but won't be able to afford an avacado.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#14

Post by magicsmoke » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 1:21 AM UTC

galacticaactual wrote: post #11

magicsmoke wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UN was created so countries like the US and USSR could have a forum to talk with each other and avoid nuking the entire world. How well do you think the UN would have helped those two cold war superpowers coordinate on a global pandemic? What you're looking for is a world government, not an international forum.

One would surmise that when such a forum exists, it should be utilized to plan for global events that affect every country, regardless of what the original intentions were of setting it up.

That assumes the countries of the world have enough common understanding and respect for each other to actually create and execute such a plan. They don't.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#15

Post by baby » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 1:23 AM UTC

mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

The increase we’ve seen in the last two weeks make zero sense to me. It’s almost making me lose trust in the market as I feel like it’s rigged. We’re in a complete state of unknown, nobody knows when this will be over, unemployment raises like crazy, the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#16

Post by volume » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 1:23 AM UTC

galacticaactual wrote: post #3

How a pandemic of this nature was not planned for, war gamed, and drilled until we could gain SOME intuition as to the optimal actions and effects countries should take to avoid economic meltdown while doing the vulnerable population right is beyond me. The U.N. was created to promulgate this kind of cooperation, and here it has utterly failed.

I think I get what you say because it's very chess-like. But IMHO reality is more poker-like. Or maybe I mischaracterize or miscategorize your ideas?

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#17

Post by alephnan » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 1:24 AM UTC

baby wrote: post #15

mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

The increase we’ve seen in the last two weeks make zero sense to me. It’s almost making me lose trust in the market as I feel like it’s rigged. We’re in a complete state of unknown, nobody knows when this will be over, unemployment raises like crazy, the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

It’s rigged insofar that maybe people have insider information we don’t

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#18

Post by galacticaactual » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 1:25 AM UTC

magicsmoke wrote: post #14

galacticaactual wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One would surmise that when such a forum exists, it should be utilized to plan for global events that affect every country, regardless of what the original intentions were of setting it up.

That assumes the countries of the world have enough common understanding and respect for each other to actually create and execute such a plan. They don't.

One of the great things about HN is that ideas are put forth and discussed on how much better the world could be, not simply state how terrible it is.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#19

Post by ekianjo » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 1:26 AM UTC

baby wrote: post #15

mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

The increase we’ve seen in the last two weeks make zero sense to me. It’s almost making me lose trust in the market as I feel like it’s rigged. We’re in a complete state of unknown, nobody knows when this will be over, unemployment raises like crazy, the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

> the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

looks like the death toll will be well below all the current models so far, so that's probably why the market is reacting this way?

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#20

Post by icelancer » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 1:27 AM UTC

mLuby wrote: post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

If we are focused on job losses (and this article is), then it's a false comparison, since many of these job losses are temporary. Some amount of the contraction should rebound as the disease abates.

It's still a massive problem, but the Fed intervening quickly and the fact that many of these jobs are coming back (plus the healthy unemployment payments/bonuses) mean comparing straight up unemployment claims is disingenuous, and the stock market reflects that.

Still the SPY500 is down 500 points, which isn't "recovering" yet.