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The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

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Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#121

Post by iso1631 »

iso1631 wrote: post #72
Murkin wrote: post #29

Since the other causes of death remain static in this chart, its hard to tell if Covid-19 are new cases or "take away from other causes" (and by what percentage). Would be interesting to see daily chart of Covid-19 deaths as % of total deaths and daily total deaths. PS. Extra points - number of deaths due to lockdowns (suicides, unaccessible healthcare, etc)

Indeed, this is the key question, what are the number of excess deaths compared with this time last year. Are mortality statistics available to that sort of granularity and speed (e.g. "number of deaths registered last week") for any country or region in the world? If you die of heart failure and happen to be covid infected (which is likely given how widespread it is) do you go down as a covid death rather than a hea…

> Are mortality statistics available to that sort of granularity and speed

To answer my own question, yes

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mo...

I love gov.uk

Week 9 commences March 2nd (I'm assuming the weeks are the same as ISO weeks)

  Week | Total dead(E+W) | Covid (UK) | Excess mortality
  8  Feb24-Mar1 | 10,841 | 0    | ...
  9  Mar 2-8    | 10,816 | 3    | no
  10 Mar 9-15   | 10,895 | 32   | no
  11 Mar 16-22  | 11,019 | 300  | no
  12 Mar 23-29  | 10,645 | 1073 | no
  13 Mar30-Apr5 | n/a    | 3965 | yes -- England overall and 65+. not in Wales/Scotland/NI. Specific England regions - London, South East, E+W Midlands, North West
Note the graph showing the recent increase: https://i.imgur.com/McBopJql.png

The next weekly report is out tomorrow, which should have the total death figures for week 13.

It looks like in week 12 though, 10% of deaths in the UK were put down to COVID, but the total increase on the year before wasn't that high.

Next week will be englightening

Covid death figures from wikipedia.

GovUK also have this, hospital admissions. Look at the massive fall over the last few weeks.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#122

Post by blaser-waffle »

morelisp wrote: post #20
nosianu wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have come to the conclusion that thinking about convincing everybody of everything just does not work. Like, at all. With "everything" I mean all those many, many big and small things, from "facts" to flat earth to this virus to climate etc. etc., and endless list. First, it just does not matter at all what most people think. The scientific way would be to develop a good model to see whose opinions actually matter,…

After careful and measured consideration, HN comes out swinging for technocracy. I'm shocked. (Meanwhile, half the COVID-19 threads are people pissed off because the US did take a technocratic approach to mask recommendations and they hate it because programmers don't get to be part of the inner circle of public health decision makers.)

> After careful and measured consideration, HN comes out swinging for technocracy.

Literally the point of the site, mang. Like, you're not wrong, but that's the default response to everything posted on HN -- shouldn't be a surprise.

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#123

Post by numpad0 »

gameswithgo wrote: post #8
artemonster wrote: post #3

I don't understand how to deal with deniers anymore. I've tried sharing a lot of explanations/articles/videos to the "tis just a flu, bro" crowd from my friends and this convinced nobody. I guess showing even this fact/statistic would do nothing too. Is there a cure or a method to convert such dense crowd? (well, besides bashing their heads with something heavy)

Im 41 and have experienced this phenomenon since i was 13 arguing about evolution on usenet, and then climate change, and now a virus killing people right in front of our eyes. I don’t know the answer.

I have recently reached to a conclusion that it must be an auto-gating feature built into human brains.

Those baseless beliefs, conspiracy theories, denials and other seemingly pointless normalcy biases seems to occur when the reality is somewhat “substantial”, even if it might not be for you/me right now.

I can’t say which of those people are ill, those who have , or those who don’t have that kind of “plain wrong internet opinions”, because the former could be a more environment resilient form of thinking. Those people are functional IRL, so there must be more than just being idiots.

I mean, it certainly allows a lot of logical simplification... what if that was one requirement for self sustaining sentience...to be able to be casually schizophrenic? That would be too much of reality for me...

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#124

Post by 9nGQluzmnq3M »

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #115

>> Disclaimer: COVID-19 data is the number of ACTUAL US deaths since March 15th, 2020 as reported on Worldometer against the backdrop of the EXTRAPOLATED DAILY number of deaths for top 15 causes of death in the US based on the latest (2018) data from the CDC. This chart is not meant to represent statistical analysis of any kind, it is meant for visual purposes only to help raise public awareness of the exponentially…

The "extrapolated daily" seems to be a weird way of saying "on average". And I think it's reasonable enough to do, because I don't think this data exists at daily granularity, and even if it did the daily variation would not be particularly meaningful.

The chart's really only making a single point, which is that yesterday, more people in the US (probably) died of COVID than anything else. And the figures are likely to get worse before they get better.

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#125

Post by 2019-nCoV »

Murkin wrote: post #29

Since the other causes of death remain static in this chart, its hard to tell if Covid-19 are new cases or "take away from other causes" (and by what percentage). Would be interesting to see daily chart of Covid-19 deaths as % of total deaths and daily total deaths. PS. Extra points - number of deaths due to lockdowns (suicides, unaccessible healthcare, etc)

The long tail of deaths that have been subverted must also be taken into account, e.g. take those who would have otherwise passed in the near future to lung disease who succumb to the virus, they inflate this number, but next year's lung disease numbers will be proportionately lower.

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#126

Post by g8oz »

artemonster wrote: post #3

I don't understand how to deal with deniers anymore. I've tried sharing a lot of explanations/articles/videos to the "tis just a flu, bro" crowd from my friends and this convinced nobody. I guess showing even this fact/statistic would do nothing too. Is there a cure or a method to convert such dense crowd? (well, besides bashing their heads with something heavy)

>> Is there a cure or a method to convert such dense crowd?

With these people stories and narratives work better than facts and figures. Try sharing articles of people suffering and/or losing their loved ones.

HN types use numbers to assess impact, these folks judge impact by how much emotion they've been lead to feel.

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#127

Post by JoeAltmaier »

artemonster wrote: post #3

I don't understand how to deal with deniers anymore. I've tried sharing a lot of explanations/articles/videos to the "tis just a flu, bro" crowd from my friends and this convinced nobody. I guess showing even this fact/statistic would do nothing too. Is there a cure or a method to convert such dense crowd? (well, besides bashing their heads with something heavy)

I think they emotionally cloak in denial, or something like that. Its not about being convinced. Its about not wanting to be convinced.

Maybe a reminder of that would help. "It doesn't actually make it better, to just ignore it. It isn't going to go away if you pretend?"

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#129

Post by Turing_Machine »

pjc50 wrote: post #48
mc32 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’d be helpful if they broke the stats down to Covid deaths in healthy people and Covid-related with comorbidity deaths.

I don't think such a distinction can usefully be made? And we don't do it for other things. "Road traffic accident with diabetes"?

Apples and oranges. There is no evidence that having diabetes significantly increases the risk of a traffic accident, but plenty of evidence that having diabetes increases the risk of dying from COVID-19.

Re: The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

#130

Post by stronglikedan »

NhanH wrote: post #117
stronglikedan wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are skeptical of the numbers, and rightly so. Unfortunately, this crisis has gotten to the point where you can't criticize any part of the response without being lumped into the "denier" category. For instance, I am not convinced that masks are more helpful to healthy people than they are harmful, and that is really my only criticism thus far, but whenever I mention that in an online forum, I'm dismissed as a…

I took a look at your post history, and I don't really agree with any of your reasoning not to wear a mask going outside. But here is the biggest one: at pandemic level, it's much more productive and safer for everyone to assume that they are potentially infected, and wear mask to prevent spreading it elsewhere. In my country, when facing guidelines of social distancing, a lot of people are responding with "I am heal…

> I took a look at your post history

That's not creepy at all! /s

> I don't really agree with any of your reasoning

And that's okay! It's good to apply a healthy dose of skepticism, especially when neither of us have all the facts. We can agree to disagree for now, and I may even change my mind as I get more verifiable info.

Thank you for sharing your opinion.

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