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Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

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Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#41

Post by jdtang13 »

tinus_hn wrote: post #25
keiferski wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a false equivalency. China is a totalitarian state that quite literally controls information; Japan and the US are not in any real sense. About six months ago, on a different HN topic, I said this about China's claim that foreigners committed crimes and thus couldn't leave the country: I call it “crying wolf in reverse”: The problem with being a totalitarian state that falsely imprisons people on a regular ba…

For what it’s worth, the Japanese justice system has an over 99% conviction rate.

This 99% number does not mean what people think it means. The Japanese prosecution system is a pipeline that strongly filters out unlikely-to-be-convicted cases from the very beginning. Long before you are convicted, you might not even be arrested, or your case gets dismissed earlier in the pipeline. Here is a video, with references, from a relatively trustworthy source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OINAk2xl8Bc

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#42

Post by barry-cotter »

y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #35
kleer001 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Downvoted maybe because spelling and capitalization errors? Edit: Holy crispy, it's just an idea of mine, not an assertion or endorsement or confirmation. Geeze.

Which is a really stupid reason to down-vote. Down-voting should be reserved for comments that do not contribute to the discussion. People need to be aware that there's non-native English speakers on this platform too.

If you can’t learn to write English keep reading. Being unable to capitalize or punctuate correctly is a wonderful heuristic for not trying to communicate. There are many more native speakers who are typing for their own benefit than non-natives who can profitably read this forum but can’t write.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#43

Post by jbay808 »

tinus_hn wrote: post #25
keiferski wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a false equivalency. China is a totalitarian state that quite literally controls information; Japan and the US are not in any real sense. About six months ago, on a different HN topic, I said this about China's claim that foreigners committed crimes and thus couldn't leave the country: I call it “crying wolf in reverse”: The problem with being a totalitarian state that falsely imprisons people on a regular ba…

For what it’s worth, the Japanese justice system has an over 99% conviction rate.

If you're going to parrot this factoid without context, please see the rebuttal here:

https://youtu.be/OINAk2xl8Bc

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#44

Post by l_davis »

btilly wrote: post #5
cmehdy wrote: post #2

While things like masks and social distancing are more likely to be already in place in Japanese culture, there definitely seems to be a bit of a surprise regarding actual numbers vs. means put in place to prevent the spread. The reports seem to reflect the opacity of communication of Japan's situation about the Covid-19. It's good that the author put out actionable suggestions at the end, but I'm wondering if the op…

I am extremely suspicious that Japan's numbers look good because they have not been testing enough. Given that honesty in testing consistently precedes the eventual slowdown in deaths by several weeks, I strongly suspect that Japan is maliciously incompetent and a lot of dead Japanese will be the result.

Japan's numbers are probably low because of limited testing. Still somewhat reasonable to compare against countries that also have limited testing.

Regarding the presentation of the data, I've seem enough poorly formatted presentations over the years to say that is unique to Japan.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#45

Post by asiachick »

rwmj wrote: post #21
cmehdy wrote: post #2

While things like masks and social distancing are more likely to be already in place in Japanese culture, there definitely seems to be a bit of a surprise regarding actual numbers vs. means put in place to prevent the spread. The reports seem to reflect the opacity of communication of Japan's situation about the Covid-19. It's good that the author put out actionable suggestions at the end, but I'm wondering if the op…

Some anecdata here: My friends run a mid-sized hair salon, about 8 workstations, on the west side of Tokyo [edit: Kichijoji] and are still operating. They see no reason to close down, haven't been told to close down by anyone, and although their business is down, it's still brisk. Meanwhile the shops are full of both people and stock (except for loo roll). Some young people in Tokyo have been returning by shinkansen…

Tokyo was mostly closed this weekend. IIRC by government request. TV shows showed all of Ginza closed. I walked down to Shibuya on Saturday, had one errand to run, it was mostly empty. Every chain store I passed was closed with a notice in the window. All the stores on the 4th floor of Mark City were closed. The basement food stores were open but the number of people were ~10th normal.

I agree though that until recently things were pretty open. Maybe they were open again today. I walked by a coffee shop and people were in it. The local Target like store was busy but main street in front of it was dead compared to normal.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#46

Post by hilbertseries »

standardUser wrote: post #22
btilly wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am extremely suspicious that Japan's numbers look good because they have not been testing enough. Given that honesty in testing consistently precedes the eventual slowdown in deaths by several weeks, I strongly suspect that Japan is maliciously incompetent and a lot of dead Japanese will be the result.

" I strongly suspect that Japan is maliciously incompetent and a lot of dead Japanese will be the result." When? Japan has had this coronavirus a lot longer than most places. If we expected the transmission rate to explode, we would have expected it to happen already, and we would be seeing the consequences.

It looks Tokyo is starting to have an out break

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-tokyo-olymp...

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#47

Post by fatjokes »

phoenixstrike wrote: post #3

Popular opinion in the US regarding the integrity of various countries' coronavirus reporting is hilarious. Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Meanwhile, nobody is batting an eye at Japan's ridiculously and obviously doctored numbers. Hey guys, maybe China was just having literally the same organizational problems the US is having…

I think the main issue is that the Internet (especially reddit, and to a lesser extent, HN) is just not a good place for nuanced discussion.

China = totalitarian = bad. Any good results are either by luck or a lie.

USA = democracy = good. Any bad results are due to incompetence or Trump/Hillary (depending on your leanings).

Plenty of people exist in the gray area, but they're not going to be upvoted. Any post in support of China is going to be marked as "bot" or "CCP shill".

Japan gets lumped in with the US. The case I find funniest is South Korea. Everybody agrees SK has done an amazing job while maintaining a very free society and vibrant democracy. The room tends to go quiet when you mention that this was enabled by their mass surveillance network. (Check out the live streams of their traffic cams! [1]).

[1] https://map.naver.com/v5/?c=14135232.1111786,4519333.3257182...

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#48

Post by rwmj »

asiachick wrote: post #45
rwmj wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some anecdata here: My friends run a mid-sized hair salon, about 8 workstations, on the west side of Tokyo [edit: Kichijoji] and are still operating. They see no reason to close down, haven't been told to close down by anyone, and although their business is down, it's still brisk. Meanwhile the shops are full of both people and stock (except for loo roll). Some young people in Tokyo have been returning by shinkansen…

Tokyo was mostly closed this weekend. IIRC by government request. TV shows showed all of Ginza closed. I walked down to Shibuya on Saturday, had one errand to run, it was mostly empty. Every chain store I passed was closed with a notice in the window. All the stores on the 4th floor of Mark City were closed. The basement food stores were open but the number of people were ~10th normal. I agree though that until recen…

Their salon is in Kichijoji which is not really central, as in well west along the Chuo line. I updated the original comment above.

I'm interested if you know more about this absurd-sounding Aso/wagyu beef tokens story? It's not reported at all in the western media.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#49

Post by maallooc »

fatjokes wrote: post #47
phoenixstrike wrote: post #3

Popular opinion in the US regarding the integrity of various countries' coronavirus reporting is hilarious. Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Meanwhile, nobody is batting an eye at Japan's ridiculously and obviously doctored numbers. Hey guys, maybe China was just having literally the same organizational problems the US is having…

I think the main issue is that the Internet ( especially reddit, and to a lesser extent, HN) is just not a good place for nuanced discussion. China = totalitarian = bad. Any good results are either by luck or a lie. USA = democracy = good. Any bad results are due to incompetence or Trump/Hillary (depending on your leanings). Plenty of people exist in the gray area, but they're not going to be upvoted. Any post in sup…

> Mass surveillance network

Citation needed.

Live traffic feeds are common here in the US[1] and other countries.

[1] https://transportation.arlingtonva.us/live-traffic-cameras/

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#50

Post by lurquer »

phoenixstrike wrote: post #3

Popular opinion in the US regarding the integrity of various countries' coronavirus reporting is hilarious. Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Meanwhile, nobody is batting an eye at Japan's ridiculously and obviously doctored numbers. Hey guys, maybe China was just having literally the same organizational problems the US is having…

> Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie

If true, and the Chinese government officially pronounced that it does in fact always lie, the entire country would dissapear in a vortex of paradox.

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