Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports • Hacker News Board

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#31

Post by duxup » Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 4:39 PM UTC

tinus_hn wrote: post #25

keiferski wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a false equivalency. China is a totalitarian state that quite literally controls information; Japan and the US are not in any real sense. About six months ago, on a different HN topic, I said this about China's claim that foreigners committed crimes and thus couldn't leave the country: I call it “crying wolf in reverse”: The problem with being a totalitarian state that falsely imprisons people on a regular ba…

For what it’s worth, the Japanese justice system has an over 99% conviction rate.

Assuming that is accurate, do they just perhaps take a different approach to who they bother to prosecute?

Justice systems are really hard to compare considering the different circumstances.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#32

Post by reaperducer » Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 4:40 PM UTC

guardiangod wrote: post #14

Knowing Japan, I bet some poor freshly graduated but elite sod in the health ministry was, out of the blue, told by his boss "here's a bunch of reports from different prefectures. Make a report out of them." So he goes off and try to make sense of the data, which is why you see those magic and unexplained equations in the report. The kicker is the most complex computer thing he ever did in his life was that Word pres…

HTML? Isn't that something you write by hand?

In a good number of very large (Fortune 100) companies, yes. Even in large tech companies.

Just as mechanical lathes and nail guns didn't put carpenters out of business, there are plenty of web sites that benefit from the attention of human hands, not just trusting the latest fad framework to concatenate several thousand dependencies pulled from random GitHub repositories.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#33

Post by taylodl » Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 4:41 PM UTC

bigpumpkin wrote: post #24

usaar333 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Well, this jibes with reality. I could care less about actual case counts - few countries are close to having the capacity to test everyone so who cares. What is a huge problem with China is the death statistics. Looking at Lombardy with 6k+ deaths with the outbreak not yet peaked, am I really s…

These claims have no basis in facts. The case fatality rate varies greatly depends on whether the health capacity is being overwhelmed, because when you don't have enough ICU beds or ventilators, your seriously ill patients cannot live. Lombardy experienced a greater strain on its medical system than Wuhan ever did. China sent 40,000 medical professionals from the rest of the country to Wuhan where has Lombardy had l…

That's interesting. I had not heard that but that raises the question of where did those 40,000 medical professionals practice medicine? Where did China get all their ventilators and PPEs? Did they need them? Once this is all over I hope all the countries get together and compare notes and experiences so we're all better prepared for the next pandemic.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#34

Post by simonh » Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 4:42 PM UTC

macewindu wrote: post #11

enaaem wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big difference is that the chines communist party is actively suppressing messages And prosecuting people who go against the governments narrative.

> The big difference is that the chines communist party is actively suppressing messages And prosecuting people who go against the governments narrative. Unlike the USA?

Even if that was being done in the USA, that does not make it ok for China to do it and in that case both should be criticised. Otherwise that's just whataboutism and should not be tolerated.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#35

Post by y-c-o-m-b » Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 4:43 PM UTC

kleer001 wrote: post #10

weeksie wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No idea why this is downvoted because it's literally what's happening in China, regardless of the failures elsewhere.

Downvoted maybe because spelling and capitalization errors? Edit: Holy crispy, it's just an idea of mine, not an assertion or endorsement or confirmation. Geeze.

Which is a really stupid reason to down-vote. Down-voting should be reserved for comments that do not contribute to the discussion. People need to be aware that there's non-native English speakers on this platform too.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#36

Post by jariel » Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 4:46 PM UTC

phoenixstrike wrote: post #3

Popular opinion in the US regarding the integrity of various countries' coronavirus reporting is hilarious. Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Meanwhile, nobody is batting an eye at Japan's ridiculously and obviously doctored numbers. Hey guys, maybe China was just having literally the same organizational problems the US is having…

All of China's public numbers are fiction, all information is suppressed and censored, numbers created at the local and regional level are fabricated, credible accounting principles do not exist, Chinese companies cannot withstand any reasonable external audit.

There are many entities, specifically in the world of finance that perform their own measurements of Chinese economic numbers and they don't jibe with the official figures.

With respect to Coronavirus, China lied and suppressed information early on, including sanctioning and suppressing anyone who talked about it.

As far as Japan, why assume others are not suspicious?

Japan's numbers look 'off' there's been a lot of talk about that.

American numbers are transparent, created by different agencies, the issues are likely testing, the varying types of tests.

Edit: I would say that most nations are otherwise the same, the only reason Japan stands out in this round is because their numbers just look odd.

Edit: This is not a new phenomenon. During the Soviet era, we saw the same thing happening from the USSR et. al. Public numbers are politicized and an essential part of the propaganda effort. It's not even a controversial position. Consider that even right now, during the Huawei political crisis, nobody can discern who actually controls this major international conglomerate, as officially they are ostensibly 99% owned by employees, which is an obvious fallacy.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#37

Post by maallooc » Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 4:46 PM UTC

macewindu wrote: post #11

enaaem wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big difference is that the chines communist party is actively suppressing messages And prosecuting people who go against the governments narrative.

> The big difference is that the chines communist party is actively suppressing messages And prosecuting people who go against the governments narrative. Unlike the USA?

Yes. Unlike the USA.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#38

Post by usaar333 » Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 4:47 PM UTC

bigpumpkin wrote: post #24

usaar333 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Well, this jibes with reality. I could care less about actual case counts - few countries are close to having the capacity to test everyone so who cares. What is a huge problem with China is the death statistics. Looking at Lombardy with 6k+ deaths with the outbreak not yet peaked, am I really s…

These claims have no basis in facts. The case fatality rate varies greatly depends on whether the health capacity is being overwhelmed, because when you don't have enough ICU beds or ventilators, your seriously ill patients cannot live. Lombardy experienced a greater strain on its medical system than Wuhan ever did. China sent 40,000 medical professionals from the rest of the country to Wuhan where has Lombardy had l…

Do you believe Zhejiang was as widely tested as Iceland? Their fatality rates are lower than the widely tested Iceland (or literally anywhere in the world), which still has a pandemic ongoing. In fact none of the province numbers are believable (https://bnonews.com/index.php/2019/12/tracking-coronavirus-c...), with only Beijing and Henan barely in the "unlikely but possible" category.

Wuhan's medical system was in complete crisis between lockdown and when the first field hospital opened 1.5w after: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047613/chin.... There's reports of entire families dying at home (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/coronavirus-ki...) -- I am quite doubtful Lombardy has been hit harder than Wuhan.

I will admit I'm wrong if China runs serological tests on Wuhan to determine the percent that were infected. I'll be extremely surprised if they do because the data will prove the point above (my guess? it would show 1M+ were infected, meaning only 2500 deaths was impossible).

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#39

Post by Krasnol » Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 4:48 PM UTC

duxup wrote: post #31

tinus_hn wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For what it’s worth, the Japanese justice system has an over 99% conviction rate.

Assuming that is accurate, do they just perhaps take a different approach to who they bother to prosecute? Justice systems are really hard to compare considering the different circumstances.

Yeah and you're guilty until proven otherwise practically.

This in a system that still has a death penalty is quite unsettling.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#40

Post by maallooc » Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 4:48 PM UTC

phoenixstrike wrote: post #3

Popular opinion in the US regarding the integrity of various countries' coronavirus reporting is hilarious. Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Meanwhile, nobody is batting an eye at Japan's ridiculously and obviously doctored numbers. Hey guys, maybe China was just having literally the same organizational problems the US is having…

Who assumes Japan's numbers are honest? We all know they've been cooking their numbers for the stupid olympics.

At this point all I can believe are South Korea's numbers. They have transparent government unlike China, they have tested extensively unlike the US, Italy and Spain, and their climate is similar to the US unlike Taiwan and SE Asian countries.