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Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

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Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#21

Post by rwmj »

cmehdy wrote: post #2

While things like masks and social distancing are more likely to be already in place in Japanese culture, there definitely seems to be a bit of a surprise regarding actual numbers vs. means put in place to prevent the spread. The reports seem to reflect the opacity of communication of Japan's situation about the Covid-19. It's good that the author put out actionable suggestions at the end, but I'm wondering if the op…

Some anecdata here:

My friends run a mid-sized hair salon, about 8 workstations, on the west side of Tokyo [edit: Kichijoji] and are still operating. They see no reason to close down, haven't been told to close down by anyone, and although their business is down, it's still brisk.

Meanwhile the shops are full of both people and stock (except for loo roll).

Some young people in Tokyo have been returning by shinkansen to their parents' homes in the countryside (which is obviously a dreadfully bad idea). I persuaded my friends not to do that, but they were thinking about it.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#22

Post by standardUser »

btilly wrote: post #5
cmehdy wrote: post #2

While things like masks and social distancing are more likely to be already in place in Japanese culture, there definitely seems to be a bit of a surprise regarding actual numbers vs. means put in place to prevent the spread. The reports seem to reflect the opacity of communication of Japan's situation about the Covid-19. It's good that the author put out actionable suggestions at the end, but I'm wondering if the op…

I am extremely suspicious that Japan's numbers look good because they have not been testing enough. Given that honesty in testing consistently precedes the eventual slowdown in deaths by several weeks, I strongly suspect that Japan is maliciously incompetent and a lot of dead Japanese will be the result.

" I strongly suspect that Japan is maliciously incompetent and a lot of dead Japanese will be the result."

When? Japan has had this coronavirus a lot longer than most places. If we expected the transmission rate to explode, we would have expected it to happen already, and we would be seeing the consequences.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#24

Post by bigpumpkin »

usaar333 wrote: post #20
phoenixstrike wrote: post #3

Popular opinion in the US regarding the integrity of various countries' coronavirus reporting is hilarious. Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Meanwhile, nobody is batting an eye at Japan's ridiculously and obviously doctored numbers. Hey guys, maybe China was just having literally the same organizational problems the US is having…

> Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Well, this jibes with reality. I could care less about actual case counts - few countries are close to having the capacity to test everyone so who cares. What is a huge problem with China is the death statistics. Looking at Lombardy with 6k+ deaths with the outbreak not yet peaked, am I really s…

These claims have no basis in facts. The case fatality rate varies greatly depends on whether the health capacity is being overwhelmed, because when you don't have enough ICU beds or ventilators, your seriously ill patients cannot live. Lombardy experienced a greater strain on its medical system than Wuhan ever did. China sent 40,000 medical professionals from the rest of the country to Wuhan where has Lombardy had little outside aid. China also had universal masking whereas Italy never did. The real case count in Italy is in the 7 figures.

When you do widespread testing as China did in Zhejiang you can find a lot of mild cases. Indeed, Iceland, which did the same, has 1020 cases and 2 deaths.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#25

Post by tinus_hn »

keiferski wrote: post #15
phoenixstrike wrote: post #3

Popular opinion in the US regarding the integrity of various countries' coronavirus reporting is hilarious. Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Meanwhile, nobody is batting an eye at Japan's ridiculously and obviously doctored numbers. Hey guys, maybe China was just having literally the same organizational problems the US is having…

This is a false equivalency. China is a totalitarian state that quite literally controls information; Japan and the US are not in any real sense. About six months ago, on a different HN topic, I said this about China's claim that foreigners committed crimes and thus couldn't leave the country: I call it “crying wolf in reverse”: The problem with being a totalitarian state that falsely imprisons people on a regular ba…

For what it’s worth, the Japanese justice system has an over 99% conviction rate.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#26

Post by btilly »

standardUser wrote: post #22
btilly wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am extremely suspicious that Japan's numbers look good because they have not been testing enough. Given that honesty in testing consistently precedes the eventual slowdown in deaths by several weeks, I strongly suspect that Japan is maliciously incompetent and a lot of dead Japanese will be the result.

" I strongly suspect that Japan is maliciously incompetent and a lot of dead Japanese will be the result." When? Japan has had this coronavirus a lot longer than most places. If we expected the transmission rate to explode, we would have expected it to happen already, and we would be seeing the consequences.

Are you sure we aren't seeing consequences?

https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-explainers/2020/3/2... shows that I am hardly alone in my suspicion that the numbers look good because reality is not being tracked.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#27

Post by fatjokes »

dtwest wrote: post #18
phoenixstrike wrote: post #3

Popular opinion in the US regarding the integrity of various countries' coronavirus reporting is hilarious. Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Meanwhile, nobody is batting an eye at Japan's ridiculously and obviously doctored numbers. Hey guys, maybe China was just having literally the same organizational problems the US is having…

"Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie" "every commenter on reddit and HN were saying China was covering it up" Stop using absolutes. There are plenty of people in the US that realize the US numbers have been suppressed by a lack of testing. There are plenty of people in the US who actually think China has handled the situation better than our own dysfunctional government. The only absolute truth is that we don't…

I think GP was probably being hyperbolic. Speaking with temperament sadly doesn't work well on the Internet.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#29

Post by keiferski »

tinus_hn wrote: post #25
keiferski wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a false equivalency. China is a totalitarian state that quite literally controls information; Japan and the US are not in any real sense. About six months ago, on a different HN topic, I said this about China's claim that foreigners committed crimes and thus couldn't leave the country: I call it “crying wolf in reverse”: The problem with being a totalitarian state that falsely imprisons people on a regular ba…

For what it’s worth, the Japanese justice system has an over 99% conviction rate.

Sure, absolutely the Japanese justice system has some serious problems, just as the American one does. But let's not pretend that they're remotely comparable to the CCP.

Re: Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports

#30

Post by simonh »

kleer001 wrote: post #10
weeksie wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No idea why this is downvoted because it's literally what's happening in China, regardless of the failures elsewhere.

Downvoted maybe because spelling and capitalization errors? Edit: Holy crispy, it's just an idea of mine, not an assertion or endorsement or confirmation. Geeze.

If so that's a bit mean. Not everyone here is a native English speaker.
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