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When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

theatlantic.com

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Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#71

Post by capableweb »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #70
capableweb wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general, in science, if you're uncertain, you're considering everything, even that survivors might not be immune. There is every reason to assume anything can be possible right now, as we don't have enough data. Once we have data, you can start to reason and consider things, but we're not there yet.

I just don't think that's true. Every infectious disease expert I've seen has been very confident that survivors gain long-lasting immunity, based on their knowledge of how other coronaviruses and diseases in general work. We don't have a ton of specific data about this specific virus, but it's not accurate to say we know nothing at all. Even if it were true, there are decisions about strategy and response that must…

> it's not accurate to say we know nothing at all

No one is saying this. We do know things about viruses in general, but again, don't have enough data about this particular one to say anything for sure.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#72

Post by ilammy »

erikstarck wrote: post #28
ianai wrote: post #9

If I understand it right, in a “perfect universe” if every person was able to stay home for 14 days and also perfectly avoided infecting anyone then the virus would effectively have died off. The 14 day’s might not be the exact time required but it illustrates a concept. We of course can’t uphold that perfect universe. So we’re stuck using that technique to slow it’s roll enough that it won’t overwhelm and kill like…

It’s interesting to think about how many other viruses would perish if there were no new hosts for them to live in. Maybe we should start doing this every year as a sort of cleansing of viruses? 3 weeks in February - quarantine weeks. Every year.

> 3 weeks in February - quarantine weeks. Every year.

But it's summer in the southern hemisphere that time of year...

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#73

Post by scarface74 »

capableweb wrote: post #67
PappaPatat wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. There are many possible scenarios how to end the shutdown, not one is back to normal on Monday.

> not one is back to normal on Monday No one in the US seriously believe this right? You're all behind schedule and the worst have yet to come. As far I understand, there are many places in the US where a lockdown/quarantine hasn't even taken place yet, so count on a couple of months before things get back to normal.

Unfortunately, the belief that everything will be back to normal by Easter is coming from the President.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#74

Post by tzs »

ianai wrote: post #69
yodsanklai wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not going to work. This should be done worldwide and you need some interaction for people to be able to live.

It’s doable with a year of planning and social initiative. But we’d also need a sea change in our laws to make it not a yearly recession.

I wonder if you could do it as a kind of near universal social and economic time-out? Let's say it starts on a Sunday night and is to last for two weeks.

What happens is that everything starting Monday is pushed back two weeks. Stock markets close. Non-essential workers stay home. Non-essentially businesses close.

During the two weeks, government pays for everyone's utilities, food, rent, and so on, both for people and companies.

The idea is to as much as possible pause the normal economy for a couple of weeks, and then resume it hopefully pretty much right where it left off, with the government seeing to everyone's needs during the economic pause.

Do this once a year as a readiness exercise, probably trying to time it around when that year's flu season is getting serious so that it may also help reduce the intensity of flu season.

Over the years, the government should over fund this to build up a cushion, so that whenever the next pandemic comes around they have enough to do longer than a two week pause if necessary.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#75

Post by sfj »

JadeNB wrote: post #54
sfj wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like an improvement actually. Less people leeching off the system, either through welfare, or by being rich enough to just sit and live off savings. A young person with money would be more likely to start a company rather than just retire. Their productivity would help everyone. People that do survive would be healthier to begin with. There would be more room, and less pollution. More research put into medicin…

> Sounds like an improvement actually. Less people leeching off the system, either through welfare, or by being rich enough to just sit and live off savings. Any opinion that starts with the equivalent of "I'm OK with the deaths of those people because I don't think that they have full value" (referring to someone as a leech on the system is basically just saying that they are worth less as a part of society than the…

I never said they didn't have full value. I'm just looking at what would happen to society in this sort of scenario. It may be harsh to say it, but there is a potential brightside whether you choose to acknowledge it or not.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#76

Post by Exmoor »

tzs wrote: post #74
ianai wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s doable with a year of planning and social initiative. But we’d also need a sea change in our laws to make it not a yearly recession.

I wonder if you could do it as a kind of near universal social and economic time-out? Let's say it starts on a Sunday night and is to last for two weeks. What happens is that everything starting Monday is pushed back two weeks. Stock markets close. Non-essential workers stay home. Non-essentially businesses close. During the two weeks, government pays for everyone's utilities, food, rent, and so on, both for people a…

I am not a microbiologist, but I'm not confident that this "three week annual quarantine" even works in an ideal world, much less the imperfect world that we actually live in.

Is it a guarantee that 100.0000000000% of the population will eliminate the virus with their own immune system in three weeks? If one or two people with poor immune systems carry around the virus for one day past the quarantine then we we would very quickly have gotten back to where we started.

It's also implausible to quarantine everyone for the same three week period. Are we just supposed to let anyone with a major health crisis die at home if it happens mid-quarantine? What would we do about the millions of people who require round the clock care in nursing facilities, etc.?

Additionally, I'm willing to bet that if we dedicated 5.8% of worldwide GDP (21 days out of 365) to fighting viruses, the results would be much more successful and less invasive.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#77

Post by PakG1 »

JadeNB wrote: post #58
PakG1 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Physiologically, no, we don't. Psychologically? I think there will be issues. For your sports example, there is definitely a primal need being fulfilled, otherwise athletic competitions would not have existed in ancient times. It's true that many industries aren't essential to life. That doesn't mean they're not essential to wellbeing.

> Physiologically, no, we don't. The grandparent mentions gyms as one of these non-essential institutions, and they or their equivalent are something we need even physiologically. The impacts on health of not being able to get out and move regularly, much less to have serious exercise, are going to worsen the already serious problem of obesity.

To be fair, you don't need a gym to get out and move regularly or have serious exercise. Lot of people just got in the park every day, and plenty of exercises exist that use only body weight for strength training. You're not going to become Arnie in his prime, but you'll be fit.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#78

Post by capableweb »

scarface74 wrote: post #73
capableweb wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not one is back to normal on Monday No one in the US seriously believe this right? You're all behind schedule and the worst have yet to come. As far I understand, there are many places in the US where a lockdown/quarantine hasn't even taken place yet, so count on a couple of months before things get back to normal.

Unfortunately, the belief that everything will be back to normal by Easter is coming from the President.

Heh, I guess you get what you vote for

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#79

Post by JadeNB »

PakG1 wrote: post #77
JadeNB wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Physiologically, no, we don't. The grandparent mentions gyms as one of these non-essential institutions, and they or their equivalent are something we need even physiologically. The impacts on health of not being able to get out and move regularly, much less to have serious exercise, are going to worsen the already serious problem of obesity.

To be fair, you don't need a gym to get out and move regularly or have serious exercise. Lot of people just got in the park every day, and plenty of exercises exist that use only body weight for strength training. You're not going to become Arnie in his prime, but you'll be fit.

I agree that there are things one can do (and I do get out in the park as often as convenient, but social distancing there is hard), but are there things one will do? I'm in reasonably good shape from indoor climbing, but that only works because I like doing it so much that I don't notice I'm exercising. So far, the inertia of having to set up a body-weight routine (rather than continue with my existing climbing-gym routine) has kept me constantly attending to other things first, so barely active. And that's someone with a habit of physical activity who really dislikes having to skip the routines—so what about those people without such a habit?
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