When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over? • Hacker News Board

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#61

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 3:13 PM UTC

yodsanklai wrote: post #50

From CNN FAQ [1] "How long will we have to keep social distancing? Probably for several months. But you might have to do it “over and over again,” since the outbreak could come in waves. Research by the Imperial College in Great Britain “would suggest you have to institute these kinds of measures for five months, very vigorously,” said Dr. Celine Gounder, an infectious disease specialist at Bellevue Hospital Center.…

I think they're taking the Imperial model with more credulity than is warranted here. Social distancing for 5 months was the suppression scenario the paper considered, but I don't think anyone believes the current set of severe restrictions could be sustained for that long. 5 months of a ban on large events, maybe.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#62

Post by danarmak » Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 3:21 PM UTC

CloudYeller wrote: post #47

lucideer wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contact tracing is, as far as I've read, the very first strategy initiated by most Western governments and health organisations. In the early stages of reported cases. As it stands, my country is still in relatively early stages compared to many others, and contact tracing became unviable as a first defence well over a week ago. Over 60% of our cases are community transmission. We're still doing contact tracing, it's…

What about contact tracing apps? Tracing won't work unless you know who was nearby each infected person. It's difficult to find that info unless a big portion of people are using a tracker app. Is that sort of thing happening where you are?

It's happening here in Israel. The government is promoting an app which claims it stores the location history on-device and fetches known-disease-vector data from the server to compare it locally. (For good or bad it doesn't use the device's existing location history if it's already stored...)

They just announced it's had 1M installs (in a country of 8.7M) in the last week.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#63

Post by catalogia » Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 3:21 PM UTC

JadeNB wrote: post #55

catalogia wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't need an article to tell me "dunno lol" . I knew I didn't know already.

> I didn't need an article to tell me " dunno lol ". I knew I didn't know already. But I think a lot of people don't know that they don't know. There are lots of problems where the scientific consensus is in, but the will isn't there to implement it—whether due to denial of the science or to fear of the costs. This is a situation where the scientific consensus isn't in; no-one knows for sure—and that's not a state in…

> But I think a lot of people don't know they don't know

I think that's generally true, but probably not in this particular case. In any case, the answer of "We don't know" is only three words long and could have been put in the headline, but then it wouldn't have been exploitative clickbait...

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#64

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 3:21 PM UTC

catalogia wrote: post #49

vikramkr wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is giving you the answer to the question. The real world has this thing called uncertainty. There are a lot of different ways things could go, amd if the article said itll be uber in 4 months exactly, that would be total bull. If the only thing people consider "worthy" reporting is reporting that oversimplifies hard questions and pretends there no uncertainty to give simple, pleasing and wrong answers, an…

I didn't need an article to tell me "dunno lol" . I knew I didn't know already.

[deleted]

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#65

Post by alexandercrohde » Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 3:24 PM UTC

vikramkr wrote: post #24

alexandercrohde wrote: post #14

Worthless article. Basically says 1-month to years. Well thanks Sherlock.

The article is giving you the answer to the question. The real world has this thing called uncertainty. There are a lot of different ways things could go, amd if the article said itll be uber in 4 months exactly, that would be total bull. If the only thing people consider "worthy" reporting is reporting that oversimplifies hard questions and pretends there no uncertainty to give simple, pleasing and wrong answers, an…

If you don't know then title the article "Why we don't know when Corona will end," so I can save my time. This article deliberately link-baits by purporting to answer a question and then giving a non-answer.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#66

Post by lucideer » Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 3:33 PM UTC

CloudYeller wrote: post #47

lucideer wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contact tracing is, as far as I've read, the very first strategy initiated by most Western governments and health organisations. In the early stages of reported cases. As it stands, my country is still in relatively early stages compared to many others, and contact tracing became unviable as a first defence well over a week ago. Over 60% of our cases are community transmission. We're still doing contact tracing, it's…

What about contact tracing apps? Tracing won't work unless you know who was nearby each infected person. It's difficult to find that info unless a big portion of people are using a tracker app. Is that sort of thing happening where you are?

It's been announced here (Ireland), though the official government contact-tracing app is as yet unreleased. It's believed to be a based on Singapore's BTLE one.

It's largely irrelevant though. As much as it may help a little, this just isn't manageable through contact tracing. While Singapore are being lauded for their CT approach, they've still largely been successful in their efforts due to social distancing (and a culture of widespread adherance), along with things like widespread testing, and effective govt. communication of data.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#67

Post by capableweb » Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 3:45 PM UTC

PappaPatat wrote: post #56

bryanlarsen wrote: post #21

Long before things are completely back to normal, we'll have a "new normal" that allows businesses to reopen under strict anti-virus protocols. We can't do it in North America yet because we don't have enough masks, gloves and other PPE. Example from China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddx_z1Qtn9w&feature=youtu.be

This. There are many possible scenarios how to end the shutdown, not one is back to normal on Monday.

> not one is back to normal on Monday

No one in the US seriously believe this right? You're all behind schedule and the worst have yet to come. As far I understand, there are many places in the US where a lockdown/quarantine hasn't even taken place yet, so count on a couple of months before things get back to normal.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#68

Post by capableweb » Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 3:47 PM UTC

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #31

vikramkr wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, that makes perfect sense. Itll stop when people are resistant. Are people becoming resistant? We dont know. Its presenting the state of things, and that includes uncertainty

It's a very misleading sense of uncertainty. There's every reason to believe people gain long-lasting immunity, and no way to concretely prove it right now. No public health authority is seriously considering the possibility that survivors aren't immune.

In general, in science, if you're uncertain, you're considering everything, even that survivors might not be immune. There is every reason to assume anything can be possible right now, as we don't have enough data. Once we have data, you can start to reason and consider things, but we're not there yet.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#69

Post by ianai » Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 3:52 PM UTC

yodsanklai wrote: post #41

erikstarck wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s interesting to think about how many other viruses would perish if there were no new hosts for them to live in. Maybe we should start doing this every year as a sort of cleansing of viruses? 3 weeks in February - quarantine weeks. Every year.

It's not going to work. This should be done worldwide and you need some interaction for people to be able to live.

It’s doable with a year of planning and social initiative. But we’d also need a sea change in our laws to make it not a yearly recession.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#70

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 3:55 PM UTC

capableweb wrote: post #68

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a very misleading sense of uncertainty. There's every reason to believe people gain long-lasting immunity, and no way to concretely prove it right now. No public health authority is seriously considering the possibility that survivors aren't immune.

In general, in science, if you're uncertain, you're considering everything, even that survivors might not be immune. There is every reason to assume anything can be possible right now, as we don't have enough data. Once we have data, you can start to reason and consider things, but we're not there yet.

I just don't think that's true. Every infectious disease expert I've seen has been very confident that survivors gain long-lasting immunity, based on their knowledge of how other coronaviruses and diseases in general work. We don't have a ton of specific data about this specific virus, but it's not accurate to say we know nothing at all.

Even if it were true, there are decisions about strategy and response that must be made now and can't wait for data to come in, and those decisions are being made under the presumption that survivors become immune.