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When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

theatlantic.com

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Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#41

Post by yodsanklai »

erikstarck wrote: post #28
ianai wrote: post #9

If I understand it right, in a “perfect universe” if every person was able to stay home for 14 days and also perfectly avoided infecting anyone then the virus would effectively have died off. The 14 day’s might not be the exact time required but it illustrates a concept. We of course can’t uphold that perfect universe. So we’re stuck using that technique to slow it’s roll enough that it won’t overwhelm and kill like…

It’s interesting to think about how many other viruses would perish if there were no new hosts for them to live in. Maybe we should start doing this every year as a sort of cleansing of viruses? 3 weeks in February - quarantine weeks. Every year.

It's not going to work. This should be done worldwide and you need some interaction for people to be able to live.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#42

Post by sfj »

cjcenizal wrote: post #11

I think a worst case scenario is one in which: - The virus becomes seasonal, like the flu - Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) - And we’re unable to develop a vaccine for it Someone please correct me if I’m wrong but this scenario implies that the situation we’re in now becomes the new normal. Every year, we’ll lose an additional percentage of our elderly and those…

Sounds like an improvement actually. Less people leeching off the system, either through welfare, or by being rich enough to just sit and live off savings. A young person with money would be more likely to start a company rather than just retire. Their productivity would help everyone.

People that do survive would be healthier to begin with. There would be more room, and less pollution.

More research put into medicine would help everybody live healthier lives. The economy would be less ecologically harmful allowing nature to flourish. In San Francisco, wild foxes are already starting to wander through the city. Imagine what it would be like after 20 years of this.

Overall, a much better place.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#43

Post by capableweb »

PopeDotNinja wrote: post #40
capableweb wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Spain. We've been in full quarantine at home for about two weeks today. The cases are still raising, and so are the deaths. I think the two week mark is the bare minimum, ideally you would have two weeks for symptoms to surface, then additional time until you're healthy and then two weeks more. So one month and a bit more. Which, seems to be the way we're going, as the quarantine here is seemingly continuin…

I'm visiting Spain, staying on La Palma in the Canary Islands, and today was Day 16 of quarantine for me. I had to leave the house to return my rental car. It was so nice to get out of the house just for a little while! Here's a pic I took on the way back to the airport. https://photos.app.goo.gl/k1kKJxjuHcdTJe4F6

I feel you, I had pneumonia two weeks before the lockdown, so been one month at home now, as I've been self-isolating. Good thing you managed to get out for a while, be careful of the police who fines people on sight and stay away from others.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#44

Post by PeterisP »

ffdjjjffjj wrote: post #38
logicchains wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) Even if it mutates, the immune systems of people who recovered from it this year will still be able to fight it much better next year, because they've learned how to fight that kind of virus. This is why even though the flu mutates every year, it isn't particularly lethal: our bodies have learned how to fight that kind of virus.…

We don’t develop immunity to other coronaviruses such as the common cold, so I don’t think we can assume we will for this one.

We do develop immunity to other coronaviruses such as the ones causing common cold - thing is, there are so many different viruses (some of them are coronaviruses, some not - there's a huge variety) causing similar symptoms, so we don't even attempt to diagnose which of the many common-cold-group viruses you have because we don't care; but you do develop immunity against that particular single virus.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#45

Post by rimliu »

elros wrote: post #27
te_chris wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My friends and I in London are already salivating at the prospect of going to the pub, night clubs and music festivals. Each to their own.

I think the unstated assumption is that there won't be any more pubs, night clubs, and music festivals, as we knew it.

What are you smoking? In any case, do not try to bring it through customs.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#46

Post by sfj »

logicchains wrote: post #33
cjcenizal wrote: post #11

I think a worst case scenario is one in which: - The virus becomes seasonal, like the flu - Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) - And we’re unable to develop a vaccine for it Someone please correct me if I’m wrong but this scenario implies that the situation we’re in now becomes the new normal. Every year, we’ll lose an additional percentage of our elderly and those…

> Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) Even if it mutates, the immune systems of people who recovered from it this year will still be able to fight it much better next year, because they've learned how to fight that kind of virus. This is why even though the flu mutates every year, it isn't particularly lethal: our bodies have learned how to fight that kind of virus.…

There are some virii, such as dengue fever, where getting one strain, makes getting the next strain much worse. This is because the change to the immune system to fight off the first strain creates a new pathway for the second strain to use to infect.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#47

Post by CloudYeller »

lucideer wrote: post #35
CloudYeller wrote: post #12

The words "contact" and "tracing" didn't even appear once in the article. Are people outside of Asia not even considering test'n'trace as a possibility? Privacy concerns aside, it seems like an effective way to save lives without forcing everyone to stay home indefinitely.

Contact tracing is, as far as I've read, the very first strategy initiated by most Western governments and health organisations. In the early stages of reported cases. As it stands, my country is still in relatively early stages compared to many others, and contact tracing became unviable as a first defence well over a week ago. Over 60% of our cases are community transmission. We're still doing contact tracing, it's…

What about contact tracing apps? Tracing won't work unless you know who was nearby each infected person. It's difficult to find that info unless a big portion of people are using a tracker app. Is that sort of thing happening where you are?

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#48

Post by rimliu »

ffdjjjffjj wrote: post #38
logicchains wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) Even if it mutates, the immune systems of people who recovered from it this year will still be able to fight it much better next year, because they've learned how to fight that kind of virus. This is why even though the flu mutates every year, it isn't particularly lethal: our bodies have learned how to fight that kind of virus.…

We don’t develop immunity to other coronaviruses such as the common cold, so I don’t think we can assume we will for this one.

We do. Actually they find antibodies for the orignal SARS ten years after.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#49

Post by catalogia »

vikramkr wrote: post #24
alexandercrohde wrote: post #14

Worthless article. Basically says 1-month to years. Well thanks Sherlock.

The article is giving you the answer to the question. The real world has this thing called uncertainty. There are a lot of different ways things could go, amd if the article said itll be uber in 4 months exactly, that would be total bull. If the only thing people consider "worthy" reporting is reporting that oversimplifies hard questions and pretends there no uncertainty to give simple, pleasing and wrong answers, an…

I didn't need an article to tell me "dunno lol". I knew I didn't know already.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#50

Post by yodsanklai »

From CNN FAQ [1]

"How long will we have to keep social distancing? Probably for several months. But you might have to do it “over and over again,” since the outbreak could come in waves.

Research by the Imperial College in Great Britain “would suggest you have to institute these kinds of measures for five months, very vigorously,” said Dr. Celine Gounder, an infectious disease specialist at Bellevue Hospital Center.

“And then you may be able to relax for a period. And then you would re-institute as the cases go up again. But we’re basically looking at doing this over and over and over again, even after a five-month period of strict social distancing, in order to curb cases until we have a vaccine.”

Health officials say we’re at least a year away from the first publicly available coronavirus vaccine. In the meantime, they say everyone should avoid large crowds and stay at least 6 feet away from others."

I hope we can relax the lockdown and still get satisfying results (following some Pareto's principle). For instance, avoiding indoor events maybe a good measure. But avoiding people to go exercise outside isn't really needed? Also, hopefully we'll get masks and tests in a near future and that we'll make it easier to contain the virus too.

[1] https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-...

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