Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#291

Post by Zarel » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 3:38 AM UTC

pdr2020 wrote: post #196

Zarel wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what I've heard from my friends living in Japan – people are sick, but the government is refusing to test them because they want to keep the numbers down so the Olympics don't get cancelled. But other threads further up pointed out that even with massive under-testing, it should be hard to cover up a COVID-19 outbreak if it spread exponentially as expected – there would be reports of hospitals being overloade…

If the government has such strict criteria for testing, might it also not have implemented strict 'stages' that you must proceed through after a diagnosis? And a further, stricter criteria before even allowing hospitalisation? My other suspicion is severe cases will try their best to hold off on self-reporting given the strict government testing criteria and lack of awareness/panic. This is one key way that Japanese…

That doesn't explain the difference in death rates. If Japan were turning away severe life-threatening cases (especially despite plenty of hospital capacity), you'd expect an increase in deaths and rioting in the streets – at the very least, _some_ indication that something was wrong.

And if they _weren't_ turning away life-threatening cases, you'd expect reports of hospitals stretched far beyond capacity.

There really aren't any other plausible explanations than "Japan actually has significantly fewer or less severe COVID-19 cases than expected". It would have to be an implausibly massive cover-up.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#292

Post by boomboomsubban » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 3:40 AM UTC

barry-cotter wrote: post #276

boomboomsubban wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are sick, masks are an effective way of preventing others from catching it. If you are healthy, masks do not prevent you from getting sick. It's a fairly easy misunderstanding to make.

A hazmat suit is better than a respirator. A respirator is better than a surgical mask. A surgical mask is better than a tea towel/dish cloth. A tea towel is better than a T-shirt. A T-shirt is better than a scarf. A scarf is far better than nothing. Nothing short of a hazmat suit will prevent you from catching the virus but all of the above will reduce the chances of you catching it. There aren’t enough respirator,…

Removing a mask from your face will put your hands in contact with vulnerable areas that otherwise would be avoided.

Additionally, if a homemade mask were to become contaminated, repeated handling could put you and others at greater risk.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#293

Post by boomboomsubban » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 3:43 AM UTC

objektif wrote: post #269

boomboomsubban wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If they weren’t effective at reducing infection healthcare workers wouldn’t wear them Yes, they would. The healthcare worker may already be sick, and are regularly closely interacting with people that have compromised immune systems. An illness that wouldn't slow down a nurse may kill a patient.

Are you saying masks dont help in preventing ingestion of airborne viruses? That sounds like horse shit. Yes you can still get sick by touching contaminated surfaces and then touching your face...

Anytime a mask would prevent you from ingesting an airborne viruses, it becomes a contaminated surface.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#294

Post by pdonis » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 3:43 AM UTC

autokad wrote: post #282

objektif wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we are being told that masks don't hep with prevention. Do you mean that sick ones do that not to spread?

not sure why you are being downvoted, as this was very much what we were told by outlets like cnn, etc. "dont where masks, they dont work and health care workers need them to not get the virus" I was basically treated like a country bumpkin in a work channel (Amazon) for suggesting if you are going outside (Seattle) you should wear a mask.

> they dont work and health care workers need them to not get the virus

Isn't that an obvious oxymoron?

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#295

Post by philliphaydon » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 3:43 AM UTC

The people who claim wearing a mask doesn’t work are missing one of the biggest benefits to wearing a mask. If you are sick and don’t have symptoms yet. It help reduce your chances of infecting others.

Yeah they arent 100% fool proof. But it’s better than nothing. If it reduces my chance of getting sick by 1% and that 1% turns out to be the bit that makes my daughter not get sick then it’s worth it.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#296

Post by robocat » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 3:44 AM UTC

brianwawok wrote: post #178

robocat wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is commonly believed, but how do we know how true it is? If breathing particles into your throat and lungs is the primary vector (seems likely to me, although I don’t know exactly what is), then what you are saying is wrong. It seems that masks are being de-emphasised, based on the obvious fake reason of saving the retail stock for the front-line workers (how does avoiding buying retail stock magically get masks…

Washing and touching is what people can do without shooting each other over masks. I am sure it helps like 10%. Doubt it will have a massive impact either way. I’d like to think most people wash their hands reasonable often.

Yep.

What weirds me that it seems likely a bandana over the mouth could change R0 from 2.2 to 2.0, yet we talk about washing hands.

A 10% reduction of transmission is super good when you are dealing with exponential growth.

We need both together, yet we are focusing on only one.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#297

Post by Reedx » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 3:45 AM UTC

maps7 wrote: post #138

adev_ wrote: post #78

Not so surprising. You have also the same outliers with Hong Kong and Taiwan. - In Japan, people naturally respect social distancing. Touching someone is considered rude, everyone bows instead of shaking hands and nobody kiss. - Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. - Washing hands is common, being clean (bath cult…

- Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. We're told that masks do not work

Which is amusing when they follow that with: save them for healthcare workers.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#298

Post by autokad » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 3:47 AM UTC

pdonis wrote: post #294

autokad wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

not sure why you are being downvoted, as this was very much what we were told by outlets like cnn, etc. "dont where masks, they dont work and health care workers need them to not get the virus" I was basically treated like a country bumpkin in a work channel (Amazon) for suggesting if you are going outside (Seattle) you should wear a mask.

> they dont work and health care workers need them to not get the virus Isn't that an obvious oxymoron?

I don't think so, but its definitely a contradiction in logic...

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#299

Post by tagrun » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 3:48 AM UTC

chrischen wrote: post #155

tagrun wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You don’t need a mask unless you are sick. For protection you need a mask and glasses, but keeping your hands clean and away from your face does 95% of the job. Except you do, because carriers without symptoms are contagious and the main drivers of this pandemic. And no, coronavirus doesn't have wings, they are carried by water droplets, and any sort of barrier that can stop water droplets is better than no barrier…

If you’re truly asymptomatic then you wouldn’t be coughing.

1. coronavirus isn't the only thing that cause coughing 2. coughing isn't the only way people spread out water droplets 3. you also don't want water droplets from other people landing directly on your face 4. nor you want to accidentally touch your face after touching potentially contaminated surfaces 5. people like you are being a hazard to their communities with this kind of behavior

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#300

Post by cmod » Sun, Mar 22, 2020, 3:48 AM UTC

vr46 wrote: post #211

Hmm, could they be lying to keep the Olympics? If so, how would they get away with it? (Not accusing, just repeating something a Japanese friend said.)

The olympics angle is somewhat irrelevant — if Japan is totally covid free, but the rest of the world is a mess, then the olympics still can't happen. Local coverup brings no obvious benefits.

To announce a shift in olympic schedule requires a total behind the scenes replanning. I suspect they're on that now, and will announce a new date once logistics have been finalized.