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Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#131

Post by greedo »

lopis wrote: post #82
_9ijd wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To elaborate, yes Japanese are pretty clean by nature and do have social distancing naturally, but everyone is still taking the subway, the government has not cracked down much. Ubiquitous wearing of masks is the only really unique thing i can think of. (Actually even now not everyone is wearing them, but its still a good percentage and as soon as Japanese feel sick they wear masks) So I’ve come to the conclusion tha…

Riding the subway doesn't make you sick. Not washing your hands and then touching your face with hands that have the virus from touching parts of the train makes you sick. You can't touch your face much if you have a mask on it. The virus doesn't just float around in the air. It only exists in water particles that fall quickly onto surfaces.

If an infected person without a mask coughs in a crowded subway, the virus is aerosolized for a good amount of time. If most are wearing masks, then even if infected, they're not spreading the virus.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#132

Post by greedo »

_9ijd wrote: post #122
henrygorner wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Czech Republic everyone now has to cover their nose and mouth while being outside, on a public transport or in an office. Obviously there is not enough respirators/surgical masks, so people are just sewing ordinary face masks. It will be interesting to watch what kind of effect it will have on new infections

I am so angry at the experts saying masks were not helpful at the beginning of all this. Sewing Ordinary face masks should help! The lie was that only n95 rated masks help because the virus is so small it goes through ordinary masks, but its not about that. It’s about stopping infected from spreading large amounts of it through droplets. It’s in Japanese but I found this website on recommendations on how to create a…

And technically, SARS-CoV-2 is smaller than the filter on the n95. It's just that the virus clumps with moisture, and that is too large to pass through.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#133

Post by _6fmb »

Quarrelsome wrote: post #33

Why do we place such low stock in mere fortune? If original cases that penetrated borders were asymptomatic then that merely creates a rare event (i.e. all Japanese risk vectors being clearly symptomatic) and its always plausible for a rare event to happen. Instead we're bending over backwards wondering if its about Japanese bowing/shoe/mask culture.

Factually the virus has not accidentally missed Japan. Japan has a substantial number of cases, on par with countries that are entering danger zones, just seems like there is no exponential spreading.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#134

Post by DoreenMichele »

m3kw9 wrote: post #114
DoreenMichele wrote: post #77

The Japanese smoke more, but see less lung cancer. If we can figure out why, it might cast light on the covid19 pandemic. https://www.verywellhealth.com/the-japanese-lung-cancer-smok...

Maybe check how many smokes they usually do. I know some people in western countries will smoke a pack a day.

I imagine they've already eliminated the really obvious explanations of that sort.

IIRC, genetics and a high consumption of seafood, especially shell fish and other things high in iodine, seem to be likely factors.

If you tolerate seafood well, that's potentially of interest. People could look into studies relevant to that angle.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#135

Post by mschuster91 »

tosser0001 wrote: post #115
mschuster91 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is this the beginning of the tsunami Yes. The problem with coronavirus is that young people apparently can be asymptomatic and spread the virus around massively, which means that without mass testing they will continue to spread... and then, detection of symptomatic CV patients takes time, both in that the patients go to testing and that the test gets executed. Unlike countries which have done mass testing for week…

Actually Germany is another strange data point: according to Wikipedia’s sources they have 21,890 confirmed cases and “only” 77 deaths. This seems dramatically different than Italy’s experience. Italy had over 1400 deaths by that point in their confirmed infection count. Is it how they’re counting? The age group infected? Honestly, I’m just trying to find a ray of hope here.

> Italy had over 1400 deaths by that point in their confirmed infection count.

Italy has the problem that exploding rents after the financial crisis forced many young people to live with their parents and grandparents which not only means that they're heading for a demographic disaster as it's hard to get kids when grandma lives with you but also that the coronavirus has it easy to spread to elderly patients which are at horrible risk for serious corona cases.

Additionally, the financial crisis aftermath has wrecked the Italian healthcare system as it's easy to "save" money there on short term. Hospitals were closed and nurses and doctors fled to e.g. Germany or Switzerland due to higher pay, which means that now when the crisis hits the staff is overwhelmed, the beds are overwhelmed and people, especially old people, are sent home to die so that there is a chance to save those young who do develop severe coronavirus cases.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#137

Post by greedo »

Quarrelsome wrote: post #33

Why do we place such low stock in mere fortune? If original cases that penetrated borders were asymptomatic then that merely creates a rare event (i.e. all Japanese risk vectors being clearly symptomatic) and its always plausible for a rare event to happen. Instead we're bending over backwards wondering if its about Japanese bowing/shoe/mask culture.

Luck can play a role, but consider the confounding factors against luck:

1. Travel with China. There was a huge amount of inter-country traffic up until the New Year. 2. Population density. Japan is quite high, and this should increase the country's R0. 3. Population demographics. Over 20% of Japan's population is over 60. This should increase the CFR for the country.

So there are two basic scenarios. One is that Japan is somehow mis-counting patients and deaths (similar to kodokushi). This could also be intentional, in a misguided attempt to protect the economy and the Olympics, or it could simply be a bureaucratic flaw in their methodology.

The second is that something unique to how the Japanese culture, healthcare system, etc is giving them an advantage.

Once we're on the other side of this pandemic, there's going to be a world of fascinating research/study into how different countries reacted to COVID-19, and how successful they were.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#138

Post by maps7 »

adev_ wrote: post #78

Not so surprising. You have also the same outliers with Hong Kong and Taiwan. - In Japan, people naturally respect social distancing. Touching someone is considered rude, everyone bows instead of shaking hands and nobody kiss. - Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. - Washing hands is common, being clean (bath cult…

- Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based.

We're told that masks do not work

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#139

Post by gridlockd »

Italy is special not just because of its elderly population, but because of its socially active and well-connected elderly population. Multi-generation families are still normal.

By contrast, Japan's elderly population tends to live socially isolated in the country-site.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#140

Post by _9ijd »

huonpine wrote: post #136
_9ijd wrote: post #57

I’m here in japan and have been trying to find an answer to this for the past week. It has to be the masks.

They also give a hand cleaning product at like every food place before you eat.

I think that goes under the “Japanese are generally clean” explanation. Along the lines of them not wearing shoes in the house, social distancing, washing their hands/bodies regularly etc. The hand cleaning product is actually called “Oshibori” and its usually just a wet towel. I am sure it helps but its not disinfectant or soap.
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