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Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

newyorker.com

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Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#71

Post by srean »

ghostpepper wrote: post #32
JackeJR wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the parent's point was that we ignore evidence but that in the absence of evidence (as opposed to evidence suggesting the contrary), we should use priors to guide what we do. In this case, while there are no double blind randomised studies that suggest that widespread mask use reduces R0, priors tell us that masks use protect against infection in other settings. If we were to weigh the priors, the exist…

How can you rule out the possibility that mask use has a net negative effect so easily?

Ah! prefer inaction to potentially imperfect action argument, I see.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#72

Post by jacquesm »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #34
mistrial9 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

citation please

Added. It’s all in the first paragraph. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

Maybe you should read a bit further than the first paragraph for your future citations?

"R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population."

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#73

Post by jacquesm »

mberning wrote: post #41
ZhuanXia wrote: post #7

The shameful lies about masks not working for civilians will kill thousands. Evidence based medicine (over the modern Bayesian Science-based medicine) has paralyzed our health officials from making common sense calls off priors. Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective. The official response should be to make some form of improvised mask required when out of home, and ration regular mask for health care worke…

I do find it ridiculous that we have ignored practical and common sense measures to protect the most at risk, and instead have decided fo trash our entire way of life and the economy along with it. In the future this will be looked back upon as one of the great blunders in history.

You're right, we should have done both.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#74

Post by staticautomatic »

konamicode wrote: post #42
mcsb4 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest challenge is to overcome the mental block of decades of onetime use masks that have to be disposed in incinerators and be produced by ISO 9001 certified medical factories. During world war 2 it was normal to use reusable cotton masks. They just need to be put into boiling water for a few minutes to kill sars-cov-2 at 100%. You should try to get into touch with C. Drosten from Charité hospital Berlin. He r…

> They just need to be put into boiling water for a few minutes to kill sars-cov-2 at 100%. I was looking for information on (high) heat killing viruses such as sars-cov-2. Are you able to point to a reliable source on this?

Are you aware of any viruses not killed by high heat?

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#75

Post by traverseda »

ghostpepper wrote: post #32
JackeJR wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the parent's point was that we ignore evidence but that in the absence of evidence (as opposed to evidence suggesting the contrary), we should use priors to guide what we do. In this case, while there are no double blind randomised studies that suggest that widespread mask use reduces R0, priors tell us that masks use protect against infection in other settings. If we were to weigh the priors, the exist…

How can you rule out the possibility that mask use has a net negative effect so easily?

The hypothesis that face masks have a net negative effect is a very strong claim, before considering it we'd need some evidence that points in that direction.

I guess if you believe that's actually true, you should be advocating for doctors to stop wearing masks...

But that's not something we do, because we have enough priors that masks help that we will continue to use them.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#76

Post by MikeAmelung »

taeric wrote: post #69
javagram wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering the physical proximity of Japan and China (30% of tourists to Japan are Chinese) the fact that Japanese hospitals haven’t been overwhelmed like Italy suggests the virus is not spreading as rapidly there. (Testing may also be a concern but lack of testing cannot hide overwhelmed hospitals).

But why? I have pushed my air quality hypothesis. What other reasons are there. And you can't just claim social distancing. Unless they have shut down their trains, where people are literally packed in, that just doesn't fly. (So, have they?)

Couple of possibilities I've been thinking about:

The virus has been in Italy for a lot longer than they think, and they get close to each other/have actual contact a lot (I don't know if that's actually true, I've never been to Italy)

Maybe they mostly have a particular mutation that is more deadly/infectious

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#77

Post by alkonaut »

ZhuanXia wrote: post #7

The shameful lies about masks not working for civilians will kill thousands. Evidence based medicine (over the modern Bayesian Science-based medicine) has paralyzed our health officials from making common sense calls off priors. Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective. The official response should be to make some form of improvised mask required when out of home, and ration regular mask for health care worke…

The argument is usually that it has limited effect when it comes to protecting the wearer. Simpler masks or home made masks can probably prevent transmission somewhat from the wearer by reducing the reach of droplets.

The argument against masks is based on 1) that people want them to protect themselves 2) that there aren’t nearly enough masks to do so.

So as I understand it, the authorities that say “don’t wear a mask” isn’t answering the question “would transmission be reduced if everyone wore a mask?”, but rather the question “Should I get a mask to protect myself”. Those are two very different questions.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#78

Post by fortran77 »

ZhuanXia wrote: post #7

The shameful lies about masks not working for civilians will kill thousands. Evidence based medicine (over the modern Bayesian Science-based medicine) has paralyzed our health officials from making common sense calls off priors. Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective. The official response should be to make some form of improvised mask required when out of home, and ration regular mask for health care worke…

I use a home-made mask. It's made from two layers of fabric from a "fitness t-shirt" with a layer of filter paper from an air filter in between. I wash it in the washing machine and replace the filter between each use.

It completely covers my nose and mouth and chin and wraps around over my ears. I tie it in the back with 4 ties one on the top edge and one on the bottom edge.

I have friends tell me "that's dangerous! It may trap particles behind it and make you sicker!"

I'm willing to take my chances. I believe

- combined with my eyeglasses, it will keep me from touching my face and eyes when I'm out

- if someone a few feet away coughs, the large droplet that the virus is riding on will surely get trapped. The pores don't need to be virus-sized to do that.

I have a proper "Gas Mask" but I want to save that for a gas attack. That's why we all have one.

The NY Times ran an op-ed about this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-...

I've also seen people mis-wearing N-95 masks. I was behind a couple in the supermarket yesterday who were wearing them and every few minutes they were reaching up to readjust their noseclips. I got this on video, it was so perversely amusing to me. I hope they don't get sick.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#79

Post by the8472 »

ghostpepper wrote: post #32
JackeJR wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the parent's point was that we ignore evidence but that in the absence of evidence (as opposed to evidence suggesting the contrary), we should use priors to guide what we do. In this case, while there are no double blind randomised studies that suggest that widespread mask use reduces R0, priors tell us that masks use protect against infection in other settings. If we were to weigh the priors, the exist…

How can you rule out the possibility that mask use has a net negative effect so easily?

Wearing masks is common in several asian countries even before c19 was a thing and I'm not aware of anyone showing that it's causing harm at the population level. I consider that reasonable evidence that wearing them has no significant negative physiological effects. I could see negative behavioral effects such as making people more careless because they're feeling safer. But again, effective containment in above-mentioned countries would also serve as evidence against that actually being an issue.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#80

Post by chmod775 »

ravenstine wrote: post #63
chmod775 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I was looking for information on (high) killing viruses They're not really alive, so they can't be killed. But you can destroy vital parts of them and make them unable to reproduce. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denaturation_%28biochemistry%2...

Respectfully, I wish people would stop popping into discussions about coronavirus to say " Actually, ... ". Most educated people know that viruses aren't alive in the traditional sense. People who aren't as educated simply don't care, and I don't blame them. Using the more scientifically precise term helps nobody, except scientists, in this situation. Should software engineers stop using the word "kill" in POSIX-land…

> Respectfully, I wish people would stop popping into discussions about coronavirus to say "Actually, ...".

I answered his question while also correcting a minor mistake. Also I'm not sure what you're quoting there.

> Most educated people know that viruses aren't alive in the traditional sense. People who aren't as educated simply don't care, and I don't blame them.

Are you trying to insult your grandparent? Most people on HN aren't willfully ignorant and are quite open to new knowledge.

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