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Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

newyorker.com

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Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#31

Post by ZhuanXia »

quartzite wrote: post #27
ZhuanXia wrote: post #15

China has half the world’s manufacturing ability, a civil service selected strongly for cognitive ability, a much more diligent and capable people, and a large population. Not to mention experience in pandemics of this type. China will become zeroth world shortly. We will have to get used to them surpassing us.

How can China become zeroth world shortly when half of the country is still living in third world conditions? I suppose if you only consider how the wealthiest in Shanghai and other Tier 1 cities live their lives then yes China is approaching parity with the West but that ignores that America's per capita income is almost 5 times higher than China's. China also has the nasty problem of many of its best and brightest…

I have seen the progress in China since the late 1990s. A rate of change impossible for a modern westerner to believe. China is not a photograph but a video on fast-forward.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#32

Post by ghostpepper »

JackeJR wrote: post #25
GordonS wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think if you're going to make a post like this, it's reasonable to expect that you present some actual evidence, or is your whole argument that we should ignore evidence? "Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective" is hardly a compelling case.

I don't think the parent's point was that we ignore evidence but that in the absence of evidence (as opposed to evidence suggesting the contrary), we should use priors to guide what we do. In this case, while there are no double blind randomised studies that suggest that widespread mask use reduces R0, priors tell us that masks use protect against infection in other settings. If we were to weigh the priors, the exist…

How can you rule out the possibility that mask use has a net negative effect so easily?

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#33

Post by leetcrew »

bamboozled wrote: post #11
watwut wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The country that put man on the moon not even a century ago! Aren't those two massively different tasks/skills? And both in massively different situations?

It seems though that the US couldn’t actually go back to the moon or maybe even put people into space without the Soyuz, so now so it’s lost those capabilities amongst others, that is my point. Even in a crisis, all that economic wealth and military dominance that the US claims to have can’t put masks and gowns on people that need them, so is there really much steam left in the tank ? I hope there is and I’m sure the…

no country has the ability to go to the moon tomorrow. if there were a pressing reason to do so, the US and probably china or russia could do it eventually, but it takes time to organize that sort of effort. it's probably true that the time between deciding to go to the moon and actually doing it would probably be longer today, but a large part of that might be increased expectations for the crew's safety.

it's a similar story with the PPE. the US has moved a lot of manufacturing capacity overseas because it's economically efficient. the US is certainly wealthy enough to manufacture as much of this stuff as needed, but it isn't a switch that can be flipped overnight and the unit cost would be much higher due to regulatory burdens like worker protection.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#34

Post by IAmGraydon »

mistrial9 wrote: post #18
IAmGraydon wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can’t reduce the basic reproduction number (R0) of a pathogen. You can reduce doubling time and similar metrics of the actual spread, but R0 is a fixed number. What you are referring to is the effective reproduction number, which is the rate of spread in a population at it’s current state. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

citation please

Added. It’s all in the first paragraph.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#35

Post by f0ok »

GordonS wrote: post #12
ZhuanXia wrote: post #7

The shameful lies about masks not working for civilians will kill thousands. Evidence based medicine (over the modern Bayesian Science-based medicine) has paralyzed our health officials from making common sense calls off priors. Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective. The official response should be to make some form of improvised mask required when out of home, and ration regular mask for health care worke…

I think if you're going to make a post like this, it's reasonable to expect that you present some actual evidence, or is your whole argument that we should ignore evidence? "Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective" is hardly a compelling case.

Professional and Home-Made Face Masks Reduce Exposure to Respiratory Infections among the General Population. Marianne van der Sande. 2008. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0002618

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#36

Post by [deleted] »

ghostpepper wrote: post #32
JackeJR wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the parent's point was that we ignore evidence but that in the absence of evidence (as opposed to evidence suggesting the contrary), we should use priors to guide what we do. In this case, while there are no double blind randomised studies that suggest that widespread mask use reduces R0, priors tell us that masks use protect against infection in other settings. If we were to weigh the priors, the exist…

How can you rule out the possibility that mask use has a net negative effect so easily?

[deleted]

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#37

Post by svara »

brigandish wrote: post #10
ZhuanXia wrote: post #7

The shameful lies about masks not working for civilians will kill thousands. Evidence based medicine (over the modern Bayesian Science-based medicine) has paralyzed our health officials from making common sense calls off priors. Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective. The official response should be to make some form of improvised mask required when out of home, and ration regular mask for health care worke…

How widespread is widespread? Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan… these are countries in which people wear masks in large numbers on a normal day. They all still have an R0 above 1.

They also happen to be the countries that have the most control over the epidemic.

https://studylib.net/coronavirus-growth

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#38

Post by leetcrew »

ZhuanXia wrote: post #31
quartzite wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can China become zeroth world shortly when half of the country is still living in third world conditions? I suppose if you only consider how the wealthiest in Shanghai and other Tier 1 cities live their lives then yes China is approaching parity with the West but that ignores that America's per capita income is almost 5 times higher than China's. China also has the nasty problem of many of its best and brightest…

I have seen the progress in China since the late 1990s. A rate of change impossible for a modern westerner to believe. China is not a photograph but a video on fast-forward.

people were saying this about the USSR in the 1930s (see beyond the urals by john scott). it's always faster to catch up than to break new ground. their rate of progress will slow dramatically as they approach the state of the art.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#39

Post by taeric »

brigandish wrote: post #10
ZhuanXia wrote: post #7

The shameful lies about masks not working for civilians will kill thousands. Evidence based medicine (over the modern Bayesian Science-based medicine) has paralyzed our health officials from making common sense calls off priors. Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective. The official response should be to make some form of improvised mask required when out of home, and ration regular mask for health care worke…

How widespread is widespread? Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan… these are countries in which people wear masks in large numbers on a normal day. They all still have an R0 above 1.

Does Japan? Last I saw, they had an inexplicably low curve. Despite not really testing or doing other measures.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#40

Post by gnusty_gnurc »

ZhuanXia wrote: post #15

China has half the world’s manufacturing ability, a civil service selected strongly for cognitive ability, a much more diligent and capable people, and a large population. Not to mention experience in pandemics of this type. China will become zeroth world shortly. We will have to get used to them surpassing us.

As long as they’re operating concentration camps, it’s the duty of the rest of the free world to oppose them.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-concentrationca...

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