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Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

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Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#391

Post by cc81 »

saiya-jin wrote: post #385
cc81 wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Current situation in Geneva, Switzerland - 2 critical male patients, one 27, one 29, no prior comorbidities at all. Not sure they will make it. Wife is a doctor and just checked this in their information system. I don't know about the law in Switzerland but unless you are lying that is something she could be fired for in many countries.

For checking overall status without going into details? All doctors within given hospital have this kind of access here. 'Many countries' sounds rather like very few for this case, aren't you thinking US specifically?

It is as tough in Sweden, doctors and nurses have of course access to patient files but every access is logged and if someone is caught accessing files about a patient they are not working with they will be reprimanded or fired.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#392

Post by zouhair »

JoshuaDavid wrote: post #113
zouhair wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. Why not? This is a matter of survival. If the economic system breaks because of one pandemic that will last less than a year maybe that economic system needs to die and be replaced by something more solid and useful for most.

> If the economic system breaks because of one pandemic that will last less than a year maybe that economic system needs to die and be replaced by something more solid and useful for most. Out of curiosity, why do you think it's likely that something more solid and useful to most is likely to come out of an economic collapse? Economic collapses have happened before - are there any instances of a solid and useful syst…

Imagine if we had a system where you don't have to pay for any basic necessities, from shelter to food to healthcare to education.

We all work in the system, some would make more than others but even those who work the least or not at all would not be left behind. So if you make more you can enjoy more "stuff" and gadgets and if you make less you are still stress free about life.

Would we have $1000 phones or shopping shelves filled with hundred of fake choices? Most likely not but at least we won't have people rationing insulin or people living in the street of the richest city in the richest country.

We live in a world with so much production and people spend their time worrying about surviving and getting ahead instead of relaxing and making the world a better place.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#393

Post by LeoTinnitus »

jriley wrote: post #371

The SBA statistics are sobering. 46 days for application, 24% approval per slides. In my experience, asking for $50k was harder than $350k and a large distraction. Vendor financing and credit cards filled the gaps. IME if you needed capital, you weren’t approved for capital. If you were cash flow positive with solid income and 2 years of operating history and tax returns, you could put up collateral and refinance at…

I worked with commercial loans and SBA stuff is difficult to get simply because it's hedged on risk. If you need an SBA loan to expand being a landlord and you have a year experience, yeah you might get it. If you just bought a new business and you have no experience with it, you may get denied.

They look for essentially a business plan that has been thoroughly thought out. It sucked for us because we had to report EVERY DAY someone missed their payment until it was paid. The SBA gives a decent rate for what it risks, but they are an unmovable force. You cannot explain to the the situation or what. Follow the terms to a t or get yanked.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#394

Post by oggy »

hyperion2010 wrote: post #240
twomoretime wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't there multiple existing labs all over the country who do this regularly? Are these tests made in small batches or something? Do you need to grow viral cultures? What exactly is the limit here and why can't a typical lab just double production in a few weeks by doubling it's hardware?

You don't have to culture anything (if we did we might as well just give up). We use PCR to amplify a known section of the viral genome. With the oligo production capacity in this country alone we could synthesize enough primers test everyone in the country 10 times in a couple of days. That is not the limiting reagent. The limit is either sample prep or sample collection. Actually running the amplification shouldn't…

I'm trying to learn a bit more about how testing works. Aside from the logistics (getting the samples to the lab, etc), what are the necessary steps for sample prep? Heating to inactivate the virus? Splitting the sample into RNA/DNA/proteins?

Also, where do you draw the numbers of primer production capacity from? IIUC, the only other things that an amplification needs are enzymes (just DNA polymerase for PCR) and "food" (nucleotides), but that I assume is not a bottleneck?

How difficult is it to safely dispose of amplified samples? Can you basically just dump them in the toilet?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#395

Post by eunos »

codingslave wrote: post #7

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

> used cash to buy back their stock

So in this case, the cash ends up with the stock owner, isn't it? What are the differences between cash in the hand of company vs cash in the hand of stock owners?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#396

Post by mjul »

airstrike wrote: post #288
40four wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough, I should have said, ”In some areas” . A little snippet from the CDC I have posted a bunch that I found useful - ”Pandemics begin with an investigation phase, followed by recognition, initiation, and acceleration phases. The peak of illnesses occurs at the end of the acceleration phase, which is followed by a deceleration phase, during which there is a decrease in illnesses. Different countries can be in…

> Why not target the cities entering acceleration only? Because the long incubation period and the lack of sufficient testing makes it impossible to know which cities are infected early on. And, to put more bluntly, because we have two models to look at and choose from: the Chinese one, with harsh containment measures that were very effective (if you believe their numbers) and the Italian one, with moderate containme…

Here is a fresh preprint from University of Padova showing that weak quarantines have no significant effect:

Quantifying undetected COVID-19 cases and effects of containment measures in Italy

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339915690_Quantifyi...

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#397

Post by oggy »

sjg007 wrote: post #378
testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

There are not enough tests and it will take months and months to make them. Also HIPPA laws prevent what you propose.

What do you base the months and months estimate on?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#398

Post by cameronbrown »

ivalm wrote: post #345
SamReidHughes wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who do you think is loaning the money?

Capital market participants? Lots of people buy bonds... I am not sure where you are going

We are all loaning the money via fractional reserve banking and our pensions. "Shareholders" aren't just people in fancy suits.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#399

Post by 6510 »

hyperion2010 wrote: post #240
twomoretime wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't there multiple existing labs all over the country who do this regularly? Are these tests made in small batches or something? Do you need to grow viral cultures? What exactly is the limit here and why can't a typical lab just double production in a few weeks by doubling it's hardware?

You don't have to culture anything (if we did we might as well just give up). We use PCR to amplify a known section of the viral genome. With the oligo production capacity in this country alone we could synthesize enough primers test everyone in the country 10 times in a couple of days. That is not the limiting reagent. The limit is either sample prep or sample collection. Actually running the amplification shouldn't…

Well, figuring all that out sure seems a lot more fun than sitting and waiting. I take dying trying to do something useful over just dying.

Like in war profits will probably be huge but if there is enough pressure government cna seize stuff too.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#400

Post by oggy »

whb07 wrote: post #153
alistproducer2 wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 1-3% is an average among all age groups. You clearly have not looked at the data. For example, in Italy the CFR is somewhere around 14% for elderly. Everyone else is lower such that the nominal death rate, being an average among all groups,.has been consistently running around 8%. Obviously when this matures that rate will go lower because the denominator will grow but the denominator that people care about is th…

Holy cow. Notice how everyone literally says “there’s not enough testing” but yet you’re able to rationalize the CFR as valid. What you see going to the hospital and getting tested CLEARLY is the most critical number of cases. It’s possible that for every person tested, there are 100 or more that are asymptomatic. Run some numbers on this “highly contagious” disease. Another point why we are in a fear bubble is that…

If there are 100 or more asymptomatic and untested cases per tested case, then the disease is very highly contagious, given the timeframe we're looking at.
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