Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides] • Hacker News Board

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#131

Post by jellicle » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:02 AM UTC

danieltillett wrote: post #45

glass_of_water wrote: post #13

This appears to be an appeal by Womply to direct a ton of stimulus money toward them, so that they can make loans to small businesses (instead of the Small Business Administration), and then they can take a cut of that.

This appears to be a very ungenerous reading of the slide deck. This is a time everyone needs to pitch in and do what needs to be done.

Yeah, this is no time to criticize grifting.

Previous commenter has nailed it directly: opportunists see a mountain of money heading out from government to the public and they want to insert themselves in the middle and grab a big chunk of it.

I mean, these businesses file tax returns and the government has an address and even a bank account on file for them. Government could... write them a check. I've just provided all the value Womply provides in getting money to small businesses, pay me.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#132

Post by zaroth » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:02 AM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #91

forkexec wrote: post #26

I was just talking to my mechanic by text at middlefield & n shoreline at the Arco on the southwest corner, just across 101 from the Googleplex. He may have to permanently close his business and get a regular job because his landlord will demand rent when there are no customers. A similar situation is happening to Louis Rossmann who doesn't have business interruption insurance because they require flood insurance and…

Residential landlords are looking at a rent freeze until June: https://caanet.org/caa-unveils-safe-at-home-guidelines-in-re... Commercial landlords are likely thinking about it. the solution is to figure out who else rents from the same landlord/other small businesses in proximity, team up in solidarity and demand a rent freeze. The alternative is owning capital in either a ghost town or Bartertown ( https://en.wikip…

“Freeze rent” as in not increasing the monthly payment?

Waive late fees as in, expect to be paid for all months back rent in the first place?

Gosh, that’s cute. Small businesses forced to shut down aren’t going to be gritting their teeth and paying back rent when the government decides they’re allowed to re-open.

I would guess most businesses forced to close at least 6 weeks will be write-offs. Walk away from the debt and start again if you can / dare. Unless someone else (govt) is picking up the tab.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#133

Post by ccktlmazeltov » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:02 AM UTC

haecceity wrote: post #54

How long do we expect shelter in place to last?

if we can trust the imperial college of london, the next 12-18 months will have 2/3rd of their time in lockdown.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#134

Post by alistproducer2 » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:02 AM UTC

whb07 wrote: post #104

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

Nowhere have you seen numbers that remotely approach 1-3%. You’ve seen the critical, largely elderly population get tested and from that you get that number that’s freaking people out. Stop spreading panic. With those kinds of numbers China alone would have 10M+ dead. In Japan, Singapore, surrounding nations more millions dead. Use a bit more common sense. We know we haven’t tested enough in the US, yet we don’t have…

The 1-3% is an average among all age groups. You clearly have not looked at the data. For example, in Italy the CFR is somewhere around 14% for elderly. Everyone else is lower such that the nominal death rate, being an average among all groups,.has been consistently running around 8%.

Obviously when this matures that rate will go lower because the denominator will grow but the denominator that people care about is the one we have now: who is sick enough to need a test because if I get sick, and thus become part of that denominator, the current rate gives me a good picture of my chances. Was the parent comment slightly hyperbolic, maybe. But you are way underselling the seriousness of this disease and the rationality of being scared of it.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#135

Post by buboard » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:02 AM UTC

zouhair wrote: post #86

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. Why not? This is a matter of survival. If the economic system breaks because of one pandemic that will last less than a year maybe that economic system needs to die and be replaced by something more solid and useful for most.

this assumes the existence of magical economic systems with infinite reserves in other planets. The economy is people, its a dynamic system, it doesn't actually have reserves

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#136

Post by danharaj » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:03 AM UTC

whb07 wrote: post #104

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

Nowhere have you seen numbers that remotely approach 1-3%. You’ve seen the critical, largely elderly population get tested and from that you get that number that’s freaking people out. Stop spreading panic. With those kinds of numbers China alone would have 10M+ dead. In Japan, Singapore, surrounding nations more millions dead. Use a bit more common sense. We know we haven’t tested enough in the US, yet we don’t have…

Fear now is better than horror when the healthcare system collapses.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#137

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:03 AM UTC

digitaltrees wrote: post #112

senordevnyc wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) Hedge funds didn’t crash the market. There’s just no evidence for that. The market crashed because there’s enormous uncertainty and people would rather be liquid while they wait to see what happens vs losing a huge percentage of their wealth. 2) Businesses exist to make a profit for their shareholders. Yes, they should have some retained earnings as a rainy day fund, but some of these companies are losing 75-100%…

Business does not have to be structured as a Corporation with limited liability. That is a privilege allowed by the sovereign power of the people through an elected government. If companies don’t behave responsibly they should lose that privilege and the owners could be held liable for debt and these kinds of mistakes personally. The fetishized obligation to shareholders and ONLY shareholders is not some holy pronoun…

[deleted]

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#138

Post by hpcjoe » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:03 AM UTC

whb07 wrote: post #104

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

Nowhere have you seen numbers that remotely approach 1-3%. You’ve seen the critical, largely elderly population get tested and from that you get that number that’s freaking people out. Stop spreading panic. With those kinds of numbers China alone would have 10M+ dead. In Japan, Singapore, surrounding nations more millions dead. Use a bit more common sense. We know we haven’t tested enough in the US, yet we don’t have…

Its 1-3% of confirmed infected, not of the population as a whole or the quarantined area. That 1-3% varies in terms of age and other comorbid factors.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#139

Post by Aperocky » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:03 AM UTC

609venezia wrote: post #59

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

Can we make millions of the tests rapidly available? I am still reading about test shortages on both coasts, even under the restricted testing regime we have been in so far. Maybe the no-contact thermometers could be a scalable approach. Go to the bank? Forehead scan to get in. Go to the grocery store? Same. At least until--and maybe even after--we can scale the RNA testing.

> Maybe the no-contact thermometers could be a scalable approach. Go to the bank? Forehead scan to get in. Go to the grocery store? Same.

This is the reality in China. Literally every single public place have a remote thermometer they scan on your forehead. supermarket? scanned. subway? scanned. restaurant? scanned. If you have a fever you'll go into quarantine in no time.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#140

Post by Exmoor » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:03 AM UTC

m_ke wrote: post #60

tinyhouse wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't say it's lethal, at least not for everyone. The last report from Italy has stats on 2000 deaths. No deaths under age of 30 and only a few under 50, all with pre-existing health conditions. Women's median age close to 84. Men's 80. And vast majority of deaths are people with multiple pre-existing health conditions.

42% of Americans are obese, this will hit us a lot harder than Europe.

Do you have any data to indicate that obese young people are significantly more at risk of dying than healthier individuals?