Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides] • Hacker News Board

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#91

Post by anigbrowl » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:50 AM UTC

forkexec wrote: post #26

I was just talking to my mechanic by text at middlefield & n shoreline at the Arco on the southwest corner, just across 101 from the Googleplex. He may have to permanently close his business and get a regular job because his landlord will demand rent when there are no customers. A similar situation is happening to Louis Rossmann who doesn't have business interruption insurance because they require flood insurance and…

Residential landlords are looking at a rent freeze until June: https://caanet.org/caa-unveils-safe-at-home-guidelines-in-re...

Commercial landlords are likely thinking about it. the solution is to figure out who else rents from the same landlord/other small businesses in proximity, team up in solidarity and demand a rent freeze. The alternative is owning capital in either a ghost town or Bartertown (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Max_Beyond_Thunderdome).

For the skeptical, think back to the Occupy movement of around 2011, which mostly took over public space. With so much private space sitting empty, the outcome would be very very different this time.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#92

Post by qqn » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:50 AM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

> People voted, had spring break, celebrated st. Patrick’s day

Sounds a lot like Philly' Spanish flu parade,[1] as compared to St. Louis' lockdown during the same.[2]

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chart-1918-spanish-flu-shows-...

[2] https://media.zenfs.com/en-US/quartz.com/df26ee36f79f85f57ad...

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#93

Post by senordevnyc » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:51 AM UTC

war1025 wrote: post #66

maxerickson wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's nothing wrong with people that are living together going for a walk together, it won't particularly increase their exposure. People should cooperate and keep distance, but it's not a big deal to just be outside a reasonable distance from small numbers of other people.

Something that amused me the other day was was an NPR reporter saying, "I went to the park yesterday and I was surprised at all the people just out in the park" as if they didn't also make the choice to go to the park.

I feel this. Every time I go out (to the park) I’m amazed at how many people are out. I start thinking about how we’re doomed, because people obviously aren’t taking this seriously. I mean, they’re at the park instead of huddled in their apartment!

Then I remember I’m at the park too...

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#94

Post by zaroth » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:52 AM UTC

donw wrote: post #68

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

> The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. I disagree, and strongly. This would be a knee-jerk, hyberbolic, and woefully ineffective over-response. Typical for the times. The only thing this might achieve is creating an even greater climate of fear and loathing. There will be false positives. And false negatives. There are with every medical test. Back-of-the-envelop…

> ...we would needlessly quarantine 12.5 million people, and fail to quarantine an equal number of infected carriers.

Well, the failure the quarantine would be the false negative rate times the infection prevalence. A significantly smaller number than the false quarantine rate, until the whole gadonkun no longer matters.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#95

Post by hyperion2010 » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:52 AM UTC

codingslave wrote: post #7

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

This is not a black swan event. How many times are we going to have to go over this?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#96

Post by SamReidHughes » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:53 AM UTC

mywittyname wrote: post #88

SamReidHughes wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should companies not return profits to their shareholders? CEO's should be in jail for doing so? Be serious.

I'm not sure how you got to this post after reading the OP. Company leadership should focus on returning capital when appropriate. They should not be repurchasing shares at obviously inflated prices as a last-ditch effort to further raise share prices so they can cash out their bonuses. They should be using that money to improve the business. Basically, leadership needs to think about long-term health, instead of mak…

They were repurchasing shares for years and years. If shareholders were unhappy about that, they had every opportunity to replace the board. Or if they are a minority, they can sell. If you’re not a shareholder, you’re free to mind your own business.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#97

Post by danharaj » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:53 AM UTC

booleandilemma wrote: post #6

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

New Yorker here. From what I see through my window, my fellow New Yorkers still don’t “get it”. I see clusters of people hanging out and families going for leisurely walks. If this keeps up the number of infections - and deaths - will only increase. Last week my brother suggested instead of working from home I work from a Starbucks. I feel like people don’t understand how serious this is and it’s really bothering me.

I'm more sanguine. I live on a busy Brooklyn street which is normally packed with people shoulder to shoulder during the day, and I will see maybe 5-10 people on the block at what should be the busiest time. I think it's like a 90%-95% reduction which is certainly substantial enough to quench the spread enough to reduce the shock hospitals are receiving.

Doing my part (I have asthma), I haven't left the apartment since Sunday :^)

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#98

Post by jborichevskiy » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:53 AM UTC

haecceity wrote: post #54

How long do we expect shelter in place to last?

At least weeks, at most years?

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#99

Post by unexaminedlife » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:53 AM UTC

It's articles like this that really make me facepalm, shake my head and say "this isn't about whether America could survive this". America is the last of our concern. Almost ALL of the other countries on planet Earth have orders of magnitude LESS resources (in every sense of the word) than we do. Think about how likely those countries aren't going to fall into chaos. Their governments aren't equipped to deal with this sort of thing.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#100

Post by sbashyal » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 2:54 AM UTC

jdminhbg wrote: post #50

codingslave wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are completely underestimating how much leverage and pumping there was on those companies, and how thats effecting us now. Companies dropping 75% because they might lose 3 months of revenue is not an expected outcome.

It really doesn't matter. If 20% of the economy is zeroed out because it's not safe under current conditions, the stock market will crash. Nothing you could have done beforehand, and no hobby-horse you've ridden for no matter how long, can fix that.

I disagree that nothing one could have done beforehand could fix that. The argument is not that there would not be a decline in share prices at all but the magnitude of it.

You need to have enough saved to survive 6 months w/o income is preached a lot in personal finance and somehow this is not practiced for businesses.It is understandable that cash-strapped startups can't afford to do this but the companies buying back shares to increase their stock price certainly could.