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Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

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Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#61

Post by SamReidHughes »

codingslave wrote: post #7

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

Should companies not return profits to their shareholders? CEO's should be in jail for doing so? Be serious.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#62

Post by mrfusion »

faitswulff wrote: post #18
lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

As a counterpoint, Illinois just ordered residents to shelter-in-place after closing schools and restaurants a week ago and our new cases of COVID-19 aren't accelerating upward as of today. This model also predicts far fewer deaths with shelter-in-place rules: https://covidactnow.org/state/IL As governor Pritzker said: "I fully recognize I am choosing between saving people's lives and saving people's livelihoods, but…

It should take quite a while (several weeks) to see the effects of any actions. Anyone who just caught it has a bit of time Before it gets severe.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#63

Post by Rapzid »

s3cur3 wrote: post #31

I have to think that as a society, we’re going to be introducing a lot of slack that never existed before. Consider commercial real estate: there are going to be loads of small businesses that can’t make rent in the next 3 months... but from a landlord’s perspective, it probably doesn’t make sense to terminate the lease (or hound the business into bankruptcy or something), because who the hell else are they going to…

If more banks follow suite with deferring mortgage/loan payments... All the stops are being pulled. If the governments can get their shit together over the next 2-3 months we could actually hit play after this pause and have a real shot at rebounding.

Other countries, and developing countries, may.. Will not be so lucky.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#64

Post by jmull »

booleandilemma wrote: post #6
lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

New Yorker here. From what I see through my window, my fellow New Yorkers still don’t “get it”. I see clusters of people hanging out and families going for leisurely walks. If this keeps up the number of infections - and deaths - will only increase. Last week my brother suggested instead of working from home I work from a Starbucks. I feel like people don’t understand how serious this is and it’s really bothering me.

Leisurely family walks are fine.

Generally, clusters are OK for people that live together anyway.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#65

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

codingslave wrote: post #7

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

Why should anyone be punished for failing to plan for a black swan event?

Black swan events are unpredictable and outside of what is normally expected.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#66

Post by war1025 »

maxerickson wrote: post #30
booleandilemma wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New Yorker here. From what I see through my window, my fellow New Yorkers still don’t “get it”. I see clusters of people hanging out and families going for leisurely walks. If this keeps up the number of infections - and deaths - will only increase. Last week my brother suggested instead of working from home I work from a Starbucks. I feel like people don’t understand how serious this is and it’s really bothering me.

There's nothing wrong with people that are living together going for a walk together, it won't particularly increase their exposure. People should cooperate and keep distance, but it's not a big deal to just be outside a reasonable distance from small numbers of other people.

Something that amused me the other day was was an NPR reporter saying, "I went to the park yesterday and I was surprised at all the people just out in the park" as if they didn't also make the choice to go to the park.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#67

Post by toast0 »

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

I don't think the options are have a lockdown vs have a functioning economy and a bunch of sick people. Once hospitals start overflowing with this, you're not going to have a functioning economy anyway.

If hospitals can get the supplies they need, and testing and health department capacity is there to do contact tracing, the lockdowns can loosen, and our economy can start back up. Bonus points if the warmer weather in the coming months helps fight the virus.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#68

Post by donw »

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

> The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out.

I disagree, and strongly.

This would be a knee-jerk, hyberbolic, and woefully ineffective over-response.

Typical for the times.

The only thing this might achieve is creating an even greater climate of fear and loathing.

There will be false positives. And false negatives.

There are with every medical test.

Back-of-the-envelope calculation: Assuming we "test everybody", and assuming both a 5% rate for both false positives and false negatives -- which is better than we currently do with influenza testing![1] -- we would needlessly quarantine 12.5 million people, and fail to quarantine an equal number of infected carriers.

Not to mention, the data about COVID-19 is all over the map. We still know very, very little about this disease. Understanding it well enough to calculate the appropriate response will take time.

Testing is part of the solution, yes. But the economic and social impact of "test everybody, every day" would be catastrophic.

Until then, in the short term, there are things we can, and should, be doing, as individuals:

(1) Limit your physical contact with others.

(1a) Especially at-risk individuals. The elderly, young children, etc.

(2) Support your local businesses through delivery, online ordering, and gift certificates.

(3) DON'T HOARD SUPPLIES! You do not need a decade's worth of toilet paper. Three months' worth is fine.

(4) Related to the above, maybe use this as an opportunity to live a bit more sustainably.

I'm down to four sheets per wipe -- certainly fascinating, relevant, and not at all disgusting to all of our readers -- which means that a single CostCo-sized pack of TP might keep my household going for well over six months.

On that note, I'm learning to garden. Let's see if I can manage to actually grow a fucking potato this year, all I got last year was a big leafy plant with zero tubers.

A discussion on government policy in response to this is a big ball of... things that require four sheets of Kirkland Signature, so I'm so not going there.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/diagnosis/rapidlab.htm

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#69

Post by hanniabu »

faitswulff wrote: post #18
lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

As a counterpoint, Illinois just ordered residents to shelter-in-place after closing schools and restaurants a week ago and our new cases of COVID-19 aren't accelerating upward as of today. This model also predicts far fewer deaths with shelter-in-place rules: https://covidactnow.org/state/IL As governor Pritzker said: "I fully recognize I am choosing between saving people's lives and saving people's livelihoods, but…

If this was done from the start then we could have recovered from it much easier. We should have never waited when we saw this was the road every other country was clearly going down and they handling the situation better than the US before the shut downs.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#70

Post by ravenstine »

codingslave wrote: post #7

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

> CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock,

Not only that, but they also use borrowed money with corporate debt to buy back stocks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-08/companies...

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