Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides] • Hacker News Board

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#271

Post by chrisco255 » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:51 AM UTC

ivalm wrote: post #241

whb07 wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll give you a couple reasons why Italy is the mess it is: 1. Significantly older population 2. Shitty healthcare For context many years ago, the state of Ohio in the US had more MRI machines than all of Canada combined. It’s very possible that due to budget constraints and other things, they have terrible health infrastructure. Why do we believe that all nations are equal? I can take a look at the Olympics and noti…

There is no treatment other than providing ventilation to the very sick.

There's at least two therapeutic candidates: chloroquine and remdesivir. See: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/20/wuhan-coronavirus-the...

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#272

Post by ivalm » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:51 AM UTC

SamReidHughes wrote: post #269

ivalm wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They definitely should return profits, they shouldn't take on additional debts to increase share price.

All debt is an alternative to raising capital by selling shares and diluting ownership. It doesn’t matter what order you do it in, and sometimes you get a good deal on a loan.

There is a difference between debt as a way to raise capital for growth vs debt as a way to return unearned money to shareholders.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#273

Post by ivalm » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:55 AM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #271

ivalm wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no treatment other than providing ventilation to the very sick.

There's at least two therapeutic candidates: chloroquine and remdesivir. See: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/20/wuhan-coronavirus-the...

I already answered this in a sister comment. There are at least 3 candidates (Chloroquine , Remdesivir, Favipiravir ) and they are all unlikely to work.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#274

Post by gnicholas » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:56 AM UTC

asdff wrote: post #266

testfoobar wrote: post #38

The virus is terrible. But our solution could turn into an economic catastrophe. It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. The solution is aggressive, continuous testing so that people can feel safe going back out. 1. Make hundreds and millions of the rapid tests available. 2. Deploy them to every business, every institution. 3. T…

> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. Thinking abstractly, why not? If the businesses are open, the money is there to pay everyone. If you send everyone in the economy home, where has that money that would have been used for salary gone? Someone is holding it rather than distributing it, that's the only reason. So, take a lo…

Huh? An idle business can only distribute cash for so long before it runs out.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#275

Post by asdff » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 4:57 AM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #2

One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy. Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that fo…

More can definitely be done with enforcing quarantine. In LA, meat is still prepared and served openly on the side of the road, so long as you have a relatively trivial permit. Even though the state is 'locked down,' you are still free to venture out at your leisure. Technically bars are supposed to be closed, but there is a pervasive speakeasy culture that hasn't slowed down.

The most vulnerable groups, the working class that pack like sardines in public transit every day, either continue work or are laid off. Tenement conditions still exist in Los Angeles, with multiple families cramming into a 1br apartment.

Quarantine is really only affecting the knowledge workers who make up a minority of the population, and who interact with a sliver of the population to begin with. Effective quarantine would include protections for the working class, but there isn't any political will.

I'm legitimately fearful of hitting the breaking point. Maybe some would call it overblown, or hysteria, but this is a city that endured three days of looting after a verdict, requiring the national guard to stabilize the situation. Men with rifles used to take positions on the roof of my grocery store. This isn't ancient history, unfortunately, it's who we are when pushed past our limits with nothing left to lose.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#276

Post by ramblenode » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:01 AM UTC

JoshuaDavid wrote: post #113

zouhair wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. Why not? This is a matter of survival. If the economic system breaks because of one pandemic that will last less than a year maybe that economic system needs to die and be replaced by something more solid and useful for most.

> If the economic system breaks because of one pandemic that will last less than a year maybe that economic system needs to die and be replaced by something more solid and useful for most. Out of curiosity, why do you think it's likely that something more solid and useful to most is likely to come out of an economic collapse? Economic collapses have happened before - are there any instances of a solid and useful syst…

French Revolution? Arguably the Russian Revolution if you accept the USSR as a step up from feudalism.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#277

Post by asdff » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:02 AM UTC

preommr wrote: post #51

codingslave wrote: post #7

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

I really think we should stop conflating bad economic decisions with the current pandemic. Yes, maybe stock buybacks are bad. But even if they were banned, these companies wouldn't just have piles of cash reserves sitting around. To remain competitive, they would've had it invested in resources like additional personnel that would've gotten the axe either way when the belt has to be tightened. There needs to be bette…

Some companies are famous for their piles of cash reserves. Apple, for instance. Other companies are definitely focused on the pump at the expense of their brand, product, and long term prospects. No C level executive sheds a tear when their company folds and they are handed their golden parachute to invest at market lows.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#278

Post by asdff » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:04 AM UTC

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #65

codingslave wrote: post #7

The stock market is largely collapsing because: 1.) Hedge funds levered up their capital 5 - 15x to make more money, then got caught with their pants down. So they all panic sold at once, crashing the market. 2.) CEOs of large corporations used cash to buy back their stock, inflating the stock price, and depleting their cash reserves. So now those same companies are on the brink of collapse, causing the credit market…

Why should anyone be punished for failing to plan for a black swan event? Black swan events are unpredictable and outside of what is normally expected.

Failing to predict the business cycle should require retaking business school...

The big problem is that companies are focused on the quarter rather than the decade. Imagine the innovation we would have in technology if companies were willing to take a loss for years on worthy inventions, rather than only putting forward readily profitable projects.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#279

Post by 40four » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:10 AM UTC

airstrike wrote: post #260

40four wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what? According to the Bloomberg article - ”As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.” They reached maxed capacity of beds or ventilators right? We read stories of doctors having to make life & death decisions. Where are the dead 18 year olds? Spreading info like that on a hunch, or an exaggeration,…

> They reached maxed capacity of beds or ventilators right? They just started to reach max capacity, and not in every region, every hospital at the same time...

Fair enough, I should have said, ”In some areas”. A little snippet from the CDC I have posted a bunch that I found useful -

”Pandemics begin with an investigation phase, followed by recognition, initiation, and acceleration phases. The peak of illnesses occurs at the end of the acceleration phase, which is followed by a deceleration phase, during which there is a decrease in illnesses. Different countries can be in different phases of the pandemic at any point in time and different parts of the same country can also be in different phases of a pandemic.”

So, we know not all the hospitals are experiencing the same levels at the same time. A big reason I wish we were more precisely targeting shutdowns and quarantines.

It doesn’t make sense to throw these blanket executive orders over entire states. As we can see from the slides, the economic consequence are dire. Why not target the cities entering acceleration only?

In the meantime, start building drive thru testing. Distribute thermometers. Practice social distancing & aggressive sanitation, but not destroy out national security in the process.

But this part,

”All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions”

Sure it’s early, but even in Italy, in one of the worst places in the world for the virus right now, that information should be very illuminating to us I think.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#280

Post by asdff » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 5:10 AM UTC

ip26 wrote: post #169

ccktlmazeltov wrote: post #121

Here are the issues from my paper napkin analysis: * large businesses not being able to pay for maintenance of tools. * small businesses not being able to pay employees, rent, services, etc. * people not being able to pay for rent and food. What are possible solutions for a long-term lockdown? * for large businesses: bail out. * for small businesses: rent should be free. * for people: rent should be free, food should…

I am not sure you're going to successfully nationalize all commercial property, but temporarily freezing interest on debt & suspending payments is interesting to ponder. For example, most mortgages are held by the Fed, so they have the ability to do that. Similarly for t-bills. I'm sure a real economist can tell me why it wouldn't work, of course. But in general, rent must be collected because debt must be paid, so i…

I wonder if the hit from freezing debt is less than the gain from having the vast majority of the working economy get a de facto 2x raise. Lots of people are rent burdened which only hurts an economy driven by consumer spending.