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Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

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Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#221

This appears to be an appeal by Womply to direct a ton of stimulus money toward them, so that they can make loans to small businesses (instead of the Small Business Administration), and then they can take a cut of that.

No, that's not the goal. We aren't trying to monetize this. We are trying to be good corporate citizens and to help our customers, the country, and our market. We have unique data, expertise, and resources so we feel obligated to help out.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#222
post #209
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That it impacted the kids and 20-30 yo cohort the way it impacts the 70+ yo. Also those co-morbidities like high blood pressure have the all important age distinction missing. So yeah if you’re 70 and have high blood pressure it’s worse. It’s perverse to stop world for some low rate CFR for the elderly. The world is made for the young. We shouldn’t destroy it for the elderly. Also actuarial tables for a 75 year old i…

This is a bit disturbing. We should what, just let the old people die (or at least ~10% of them)?

Where did you get 10% from?

We should treat them as best as possible but not by stopping the world.

Look up the actuarial tables for a 70 year old. Living another year is significantly different than for a 45 year old.

Then lookup the survival rates for a 70 year old with influenza, suddenly the numbers keeping you up at night start looking weak in comparison.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#223
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> First, we pause all fixed financial obligations, which are what’s crushing our economy right now. Right now, we’re in a crunch: people can’t work, and so they can’t make payments on mortgages and rents. Totally agree, it is insane that some families are under the threat of eviction because they live paycheck to paycheck and cannot afford to pay rent now. Same for small businesses who cannot afford to pay rent. I'm…

It isn't about landlords doing the "right thing". Landlords have debt to pay, generally aren't sitting on mountains of free cash, and foreclosure of the property you are renting is functionally similar to eviction.

to re-iterate the other comment: landlords have landlords.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#224
post #148
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. Why not? This is a matter of survival. If the economic system breaks because of one pandemic that will last less than a year maybe that economic system needs to die and be replaced by something more solid and useful for most.

It's not about abstract "economic system". Let me put it in simple word: you'll loose your job. Your friends and family will loose their jobs. As a result, when your savings run out, you'll loose your appartement. And so will your friends and family. You won't be able to afford food without government assistance. And even if shutdown lasts only 30 days, it'll wreck the economy for a long time. Once a restaurant defau…

All of those are the result of the horrible 'economic system' we find ourselves in. People lose their apartments when they lose their jobs because we have few safety nets. And for small businesses we're demonstrating how little it takes for something to completely destroy them.

If humanity can't react appropriately to pandemics like this, then how can we expect to survive in the eventuality that something even worse comes along? And any economic system that gets crushed by this proves that it simply wasn't prepared and needs to be replaced, lest it cause even more damage to individuals.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#225

How long do we expect shelter in place to last?

At least weeks, at most years?

Most countries can't survive months let alone years on lockdown. Most people can't work remotely, so in extended lockdown people lose their jobs and small businesses fold.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#226
The problem is that businesses have been setup in such a way that they can't just stop spending money when they aren't earning any money.

But this can mostly be fixed by law, with a law that retroactively changes all rent, leasing, mortgage, employment contracts and in general any contract that involves periodic or future payments to be stopped at will, subject to no longer enjoying the service or product.

Then they can just stop paying rent and paying employees and cancel all supply deliveries, since they no longer need those, and they will not lose any money.

Then add a temporary UBI and a ban on actually evicting from rented spaces (since the economy is shut down, and thus there would be no other tenants) so that people can still have a home and food.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#227
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It simply isn't possible to shut down the economy and then pay people, businesses to sit idle for an undetermined amount of time. Is that actually true though? What resource are we low on? Do we not have enough nonperishable goods or public funds to pay for utilities and basic infrastructure?

We might have enough food etc stockpiled, but the servicing of debt (upon which everything is built) drives a certain modest urgency through the whole system.

The need to service crushing debt is a large part of what everybody is hoping will fall away. A primary economic concern right now is people losing their homes for failing to make rent, whether they rent from a landlord or "own". Businesses will go bankrupt for much the same reason - high burn rates that were mainly just going to the banks.

Debt has metastasized and spawned many industries, so its retraction is unlikely to be a peaceful event. But it is a cancer that will kill our society some time. The only question is if now is that time, or if some patching will get the system through this and we can go back to pumping the stock market as a false idol of productivity.

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#228
post #217
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Holy cow. Notice how everyone literally says “there’s not enough testing” but yet you’re able to rationalize the CFR as valid. What you see going to the hospital and getting tested CLEARLY is the most critical number of cases. It’s possible that for every person tested, there are 100 or more that are asymptomatic. Run some numbers on this “highly contagious” disease. Another point why we are in a fear bubble is that…

There can be a wide range of assumption. Anywhere from "all the people we know about are all that are infected" to "everyone else in the world is already infected". Regardless, the death tolls kind of speak for themselves. What's more, the increase in death toll too. In Italy alone there are over 4000 dead, with a few hundred more a day now. Italy has a population of 60 million. Extrapolating even the current death c…

I’ll give you a couple reasons why Italy is the mess it is:

1. Significantly older population

2. Shitty healthcare

For context many years ago, the state of Ohio in the US had more MRI machines than all of Canada combined. It’s very possible that due to budget constraints and other things, they have terrible health infrastructure.

Why do we believe that all nations are equal? I can take a look at the Olympics and notice that isn’t the case. Italians make better cars as compared to the French. So maybe they have terrible elderly healthcare? That seems more likely than “super disease kills only Italians and now comes after Americans”

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's Red Cross supposedly advised Italy yesterday that 'total economic shutdown'[1] is the only way to contain the COVID-19 situation in the country now. It all comes to what part of the curve the country is now, the choice being total lockdown incl. economic shutdown vs aggressive testing. Considering US lapsed on aggressive measures in the beginning and that proper test kits are just being flown in from Italy[2]…

> total economic shutdown seems to be the only option left That's quite the overreaction. Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man). 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... To put it an…

> 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses.

So far... wait until you get the number of critical cases above the number of ICU beds and you'll see 18 year olds dying from this

Re: Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> total economic shutdown seems to be the only option left That's quite the overreaction. Italy found that among fatalities the median age is over 80 (older than the average lifespan of an Italian man). 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho... To put it an…

> 99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness. About 50% of the deaths were people suffering from at least three other illnesses. So far... wait until you get the number of critical cases above the number of ICU beds and you'll see 18 year olds dying from this

You won't, because we triage patients.
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