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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#271

Post by lostapathy »

spookthesunset wrote: post #256
sudosteph wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've actually been really surprised by how well he has handled this so far too. The nation-wide lockdown plus direct cash stimulus are exactly the measures I had hoped to see. Pandemics may be one of the rare situations where having authoritarian leadership can actually benefit the populace. Though I guess we have a while before it plays out completely. I have doubts about whether any non-populist president would hav…

Meh. An actual leader would clearly articulate what is going on—he hasn’t done that. An actual leader would tell people not to panic—hasn’t done that. An actual leader would take strong, very visible action against people hoarding supplies or worse reselling them for profit—toilet paper memes are funny until you run out. And quite frankly a real smart leader would have started testing the fuck out every person with a…

I'm not really a trump fan - but at the same time, these people have to have time to do the work, they can't spend it all in press conferences.

At a practical level on the hoarding - what can the president do, declare martial law? There aren't enough police/solidiers to enforce it anyway. Far better to get to work on the source of the panic, especially if you believe it can be contained if you prioritize that.

It's clear we're behind on testing - and definitely the FDA is owed some blame. But at the same time, if the tests don't exist in quantity, they don't exist. That takes time - and be all accounts, they seem to be working hard on getting there.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#272

Post by barrkel »

easytiger wrote: post #163
nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

The WHO predicted that 150 million people would be killed by avian flu https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2005/... Using the same logic that had lead to the severe predictions for cv19. For swine flu they promoted and stood by a CFR of 60%. Again turned out to be nonsense; nonsense known at the time to others https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555.abstract

The thing is, there's what happens if you don't contain something and what happens when you do.

Humans are a monoculture across the planet at this point. In many ways it's surprising that there aren't more pandemics.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#273

Post by johnohara »

warabe wrote: post #237

I live in Japan and I experience mild symptoms since last Wednesday but not sure if my symptom is due to Covid-19. In Japan, You have meet two conditions to take a CPR test. 1. the symptoms with fever of 37.5 degrees or more continue for 4 days or more (for the eldery and those with underlying disease, "4 days" becomes "2 days") 2. you have strong laxity (malaise) or breathlessness (dyspnea), or you have underlying d…

The symptoms you describe are very similar to those articulated by these two CoV patients who were aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship which docked in Japan.

Here is their vlog on youtube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2E1t3yMXgE

The husband describes his experience with temperature and thermometers in the first 5 minutes. The similarity to your symptoms begins at ~ 5:00.

This whole video is worth an investment of 38 minutes. 5M+ views.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#274

Post by lostapathy »

md224 wrote: post #93
lend000 wrote: post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases. This is good in that it means the death rate is also off by that factor, but bad in that there will not be enough fear/incentive for the primary carriers (young adults) to adhere to adequate social distancing. If the death rate is off by 10x-50x, isn't this approaching the death rate of seasonal influenza, in which case we didn't actually ne…

Maybe, maybe not. Part of what makes the influenza death rate what it is is that those cases are spread over several months and hospitals can support the patients who recover. If all the influenza cases came to a head over a 3 week period, death rates would be much higher.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#275

Post by NeutralCrane »

j-pb wrote: post #104
md224 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases. This is good in that it means the death rate is also off by that factor, but bad in that there will not be enough fear/incentive for the primary carriers (young adults) to adhere to adequate social distancing. If the death rate is off by 10x-50x, isn't this approaching the death rate of seasonal influenza, in which case we didn't actually ne…

That doesn't add up, if it wasn't worse than seasonal influenza, then Italys hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed.

Seasonal flu already puts quite a strain on most hospital systems every year. If the rate of severe flu infection were doubled, I think a lot of health care systems would be pushed to the limit. And Covid-19 is worse than the flu, if not in terms of severity (although that is up for debate), it is in terms of contagiousness, as there is no one in the population with resistance from prior exposure, no vaccines, etc.

So it is plausible that Italy (and other countries) problems are a result of a double whammy of flu and Covid19 as it is due to the severity of Covid19 itself.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#276

Post by barrkel »

easytiger wrote: post #198
notahacker wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overestimates of the severity of the threat have much less harmful consequences than underestimates. For a start, actual casualty statistics are not independent from mitigation actions taken.

> Overestimates of the severity of the threat have much less harmful consequences than underestimates. We didn't take the estimates for SARS and h1n1 as "seriously" as now, and they are just as if not worse than this.And look what happened.

SARS was more lethal and more infectious than COVID-19. It was however easier to contain because there wasn't much asymptomatic transmission, and the incubation period was short. Those two things are what makes COVID-19 more dangerous in practice.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#277

Post by dwohnitmok »

logicallee wrote: post #201
nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

>Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. Here is a comedy show lambasting Donald Trump for saying he had a hunch this was the case: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNfmTMdoao0 Donald Trump's gut probably saved thousands of Americans through closing the borders early (this is a talking point he repeats again and again and I…

I'll argue with this. He didn't close borders early and he didn't close them well. Here's a general link about it: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-trumps-travel...

Specifically as to the timing of travel restrictions, the U.S. was more or less in line with other countries at the time. A wide swath of countries started banning entry to foreign nationals from China around the end of January, beginning of February. In the U.S. travel was banned to foreign nationals from China on Feb. 2nd, around the middle-low end of the pack (although not by much, just a day or two). This was less restrictive than some other countries (which banned flights altogether), but generally in line with other countries. However, the U.S. has consistently been behind the ball when it comes to quarantining U.S. nationals from China. Long after the official announcement people were getting off the plane and not even being asked let alone compelled to at least self-quarantine in their own homes for days if not the full two weeks.

Testing has been infuriatingly slow to roll out and there has been a noticeable lack of coordination between states and the federal government about how to institute protective measures. The 1.5 million tests promised by Pence has failed to materialize as of yet. The CDC stopped counting case numbers (at least publicly) and now the best available case count is one maintained by a private institution (Johns Hopkins University). More generally, Trump has consistently downplayed the threat of the virus through February in a way that medical experts repeatedly complained was far too incautious for the situation and is now doing an abrupt about-face and claiming that he has never downplayed the risk at all and in fact was more cautious than even experts.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#278

Post by jfkebwjsbx »

thu2111 wrote: post #267
bob33212 wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doctors "Give Up" on people all the time. If you have advanced pancreatic cancer, are 85 and a heavy smoker, most doctors are going to suggest you go home and spend your last few days with loved ones.

Yeah, that's what I'm getting at. What I see at the moment on HN and elsewhere is a lot of people who seem to believe that in Italy the hospitals are already overrun and people are being turned away in large numbers because all the beds are gone already days ago. But this doesn't match what is actually happening there, according to the Italian government. What they're saying is so far they've had to turn away noone;…

> What they're saying is so far they've had to turn away noone; that everyone who needs treatment is getting it.

You wrote yourself a quote in another comment where it is claimed that has happened. I am confused...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#279

Post by bart_spoon »

Jedd wrote: post #121
eteos wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is likely because our immume system is not familliar with this virus yet.

This doesn't add up either -- immunity per individual is expected to last 'only a few months', opening the door to multiple infections per year per person.

There's no indication how long the immunity is expected to last. It's just as likely that immunity, even if temporary, can last for a year or more, as is the case with the flu or some other viruses.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#280

Post by seanmcdirmid »

spookthesunset wrote: post #255
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fear and suffering alone is enough to have a negative effect on people, so it matters.

So is shutting down the entire worlds economy. That has massive, very real impacts well beyond just money.

Ya, but the anxiety of thinking you might sick and die also has negative impacts beyond just money.
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