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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#101

Post by alkonaut »

confeit wrote: post #43

> "The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion". The Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence, Sergio Romagnani > Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The pro…

> "The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion"

So long as every asymptomatic person got it from someone with symptoms, they necessarily a source of contagion. Is the conclusion based on modeling, i.e. that the rate of spread is only consistent with the asymptomatic people also trasmitting the virus?

Lots of asymptomatic infected doesn't (automatically) mean lots of transmission from asymptomatic people to uninfected people.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#102

Post by grey-area »

kart23 wrote: post #83
grey-area wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That means 1-2 million deaths in the US according to the latest modelling from Imperial Collage London, so it’s likely all countries will proceed to full lockdown for months at some point soon.

This just isnt true. Look at china. Their new cases per day have now dropped to effectively zero. Under 100,000 people got it, and deaths are around 6,000. Keep in mind this is for a population of 1.3 Billion. US population is 300 million. Please explain how 2 million people are gonna die in this country.

The paper explains how, these are not my figures but they do seem credible, this is the modelling team advising the uk gov and the gov has adjusted their strategy to suppression in response (the tactic in China), but the economic impact of that is pretty dire too, and it means tough choices.

The measures in China were draconian and long lasting (large cities on lockdown for months), and they managed to contain it because they were first hit and it had not spread far. It has already unfortunately spread widely in the UK and US.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#103

Post by system2 »

encoderer wrote: post #87
ncallaway wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure if you're quoting something or paraphrasing a position you disagree with. If it's a paraphrase, I'm not so sure it's a fair one. In the United States, for example, we are urging people not to be tested unless they have severe symptoms. The reason for that is not to save money, but it's for a lack of testing capacity. As a policy we would much prefer to be testing even the mild suspected cases. But we don…

The lack of testing capacity was a choice.

Yes, we are 3 months late. These wasted last 3 months were critical after the December outbreak in China. I don't think it is the U.S. problem, Europeans didn't move a finger until the beginning of March either. Literally everyone watched China as if they could contain it properly. They didn't even tell people until it was very late.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#104

Post by j-pb »

md224 wrote: post #93
lend000 wrote: post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases. This is good in that it means the death rate is also off by that factor, but bad in that there will not be enough fear/incentive for the primary carriers (young adults) to adhere to adequate social distancing. If the death rate is off by 10x-50x, isn't this approaching the death rate of seasonal influenza, in which case we didn't actually ne…

That doesn't add up, if it wasn't worse than seasonal influenza, then Italys hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#106

Post by alkonaut »

watwut wrote: post #72
trymas wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? If you have symptoms of _any_ illness you should always get a sick leave and stay at home. It does not matter if it's covid, seasonal flu or just a common cold - sick leave and stay at home.

I agree with you and practice that. But even in tech where work from home is an option and companies are rich enough to let people stay in bad anyway, in many companies it is treated as heroic to push through. Meaning, staying at home makes you seen as less comited and less passionate. Thus, people avoid it.

Those environments are created by employees themselves. If you don't tell someone with a cold to go home, you are part of the problem.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#107

Post by nardi »

lend000 wrote: post #97
mtsr wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mean incubation period is 5.6 days (range 1-14). So while possible, it’s highly unlikely you got it 1 day after infection.

"Mean" means nothing in the context of probability distributions. It's possible I picked it up elsewhere, and less likely that I have something else with these unique symptoms (I've never a had fever without nasal congestion or gastrointestinal symptoms before). However, I think it makes sense I would be at the lower incubation period range due to the high level of contact with said suspect and the fact that I'm an o…

> "Mean" means nothing in the context of probability distributions.

Just wanted to boost this. With a range of 1–14 days, it's possible for close to 50% of infections to only incubate for ~1 day, and still have a mean of 5.6 days for incubation. Without knowledge of the distribution, the mean means nothing.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#109

Post by alkonaut »

jnwatson wrote: post #27
DoofusOfDeath wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just convinced me to move to Greenland.

Madagascar closed their ports to cruise ships a while ago.

Cruise ships have hopefully been sitting in port for a while now. At least no new ones are leaving (or people are more stupid than I thought).
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