Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

governor.wa.gov

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

421–430 of 568 posts

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#421

Post by easytiger »

marvin wrote: post #415
easytiger wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1% of what?

8000-ish cases. 70-ish deaths => ~0.9% fatality rate. Very thorough testing, so 0.9% is likely to be a reasonable estimate of the real fatality rate. Granted, 250k-ish of 50 million is a small sample, but you've got to assume that they haven't tested randomly but tested people who have been in touch with known cases.

You are almost there.

> but you've got to assume that they haven't tested randomly but tested people who have been in touch with known cases

Yes. Well with symptoms etc. So of the people who got tested they are much more likely to test +ve. I agree. Which means real cases are massively more widespread than those tested.

It is believed here in the UK that this has been fairly rife for a while now, but those who got it are not statistically counted anywhere. The real fatality rate is way less than 0.9

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#422

Post by Faark »

eeh wrote: post #372
rubicon33 wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just look at some of the comments in this very thread, calling for us to adopt the "UK model". It's clear that some people DO NOT see this as a threat worth worrying about. Shame on them, I say. They're probably the same idiots that show up to work sick, and cough without covering their mouth around others. A lot of people who apparently don't believe in biology, and don't have the ability to see past their own 2 fee…

The UK model also happens to be the Germany model: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856 . The UK are focused on minimising deaths, by avoiding COVID-19 striking during next winter, when the NHS is at peak load due to winter flu. Instead, they will guide the first strike towards summer (NHS's least load), and impose measures to protect at-risk folk during that time.

I'm not sure what the the "UK model" is, but schools don't seem to be closed there (are here in Germany) and I can't find good info about mass events being banned. The best term I found for Germany's policy is "flattening the curve", while UK news seem to describe theirs as "herd immunity". Sure, there will be overlap in policy, but wouldn't call it the same model.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#423

Post by bkor »

netsharc wrote: post #344
pbourke wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Alaska cruise season will likely not happen this year. The Canadian government has banned cruise ships from Canadian ports until 1 July. Legally, the foreign-flagged ships of major cruise lines must call at a foreign port between calls at US ports. All Alaska cruises call at Vancouver on their way from Seattle to Alaska. https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/canada-suspends-cr...

I'm not mourning this. They're floating luxury hotels spewing 10x more sulphur oxide than all of Europe's 260 million cars. Ironically this economic shutdown is probably what needs to be done to save the planet. Funny how humans react when their death might come in 2 weeks and not in 20 years.

Seems the source of your "10x" statement is the following report: https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/report-cruise-shi...

That's a report released in 2019, but the subject is 2017 emissions.

Since Jan 1 2020 all vessels are restricted to low sulphur fuel. It used to be up to 3.5% worldwide, now you're only allowed 0.50%. Near EU you were already restricted, seems that was up to 1.5%

Unfortunately, reading the article does point to some bad actions: One cruise company seems to be installing scrubbers. They basically take the SOx out of the exhaust (and then dump it somewhere). This is still really bad for the environment, though it makes it appear you abide by the IMO regulations.

In any case, SOx emissions should be drastically slower since 2020. Also, further reductions should be possible. This as 0.50 SOx fuel didn't really exist; initially the plan was to mix 3.5% and 0.10% to get to 0.50%. Ideally the IMO now restricts everyone to 0.10% as it'll probably take 10 years again before anything like that takes effect.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#424

Post by Phylter »

They've done this in Illinois too. What's happened is people are self-isolating to prevent the spread even though government is pleading with them to do so. So, they're having to force the issue. If people still don't get the hint they'll have to put curfews in place.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#426

Post by C1sc0cat »

jader201 wrote: post #309
tathougies wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because of people panic selling, and it's a wonderful opportunity to buy cheap stocks.

The problem is stocks continue to fall — hard — and nobody knows where the floor is. It’s also unclear how long it will take everything to recover, if they do continue to fall.

I am down 1 large in the uk today £10k

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#427

Post by vharuck »

Polylactic_acid wrote: post #207
nullc wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if we accept your premise, how many dollars in economic activity will be destroyed by the deaths of enormous numbers of working age people because the hospitals were overloaded and they couldn't get the critical care they needed?

I know this is horrible, but likely not too many. In Italy they are currently kicking people over 60 out of the hospitals to make way for the younger people who are more likely to survive with medical treatment.

If a lot of people die, a lot of economic value will be literally put into the ground: funerals, handling of estates, coffins. That's not long-term productive value. At best it reshuffles money in an optimal-blind way.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#428

Post by bluGill »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #191
listenallyall wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? All the cooks are breathing the same air for an entire shift, in a smaller, hotter, enclosed area.

Right. What matters is that they’re the same set of cooks, so if an infection spreads the number of people it can spread to is limited.

The same cooks. The restaurant has maybe 70 employees total.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#429

Post by thrownaway954 »

dillondoyle wrote: post #343
topkai22 wrote: post #144

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save. A 1% reduction in the ca…

I hate myself for saying this but if one wants a cold calculous thought experiment, what about thinking about the mortality age? mostly older people, not only don't work but are also often a net burden to society.

don't hate yourself. china is facing a huge economic epidemic from the elderly and although noone wants to be "that guy" this virus outbreak could actually be a good thing for them and the rest of the world to curb the elderly population.

https://time.com/5523805/china-aging-population-working-age/

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#430

Post by CydeWeys »

intopieces wrote: post #162
CydeWeys wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're being selfish. Everything isn't just about you.

reedx8's post is about reedx8's level of worry and personal risk assessment, which is 100% about reedx8.

Yes. That's selfish, because their actions have effects on others and they need to take that into consideration too.
Post reply on HN