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Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

governor.wa.gov

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Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#401

Post by marvin »

easytiger wrote: post #380
marvin wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. But South Korea is still at 0.6%, and they've tested everyone and their dog, and provided top care to everyone.

This is incorrect. As of the weekend gone past South Korea had tested 248,000 people out of a population of 50,000,000, with 8,086 +ve cases and 72 deaths. There is a lot of memetic nonsense flying around about this online and this is part of it

Hm, ok. That would make it in the region of 1%. Thought my numbers were out of date since I heard 0.6% somewhere else.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#402

Post by [deleted] »

marvin wrote: post #401
easytiger wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is incorrect. As of the weekend gone past South Korea had tested 248,000 people out of a population of 50,000,000, with 8,086 +ve cases and 72 deaths. There is a lot of memetic nonsense flying around about this online and this is part of it

Hm, ok. That would make it in the region of 1%. Thought my numbers were out of date since I heard 0.6% somewhere else.

[deleted]

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#403

Post by easytiger »

marvin wrote: post #401
easytiger wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is incorrect. As of the weekend gone past South Korea had tested 248,000 people out of a population of 50,000,000, with 8,086 +ve cases and 72 deaths. There is a lot of memetic nonsense flying around about this online and this is part of it

Hm, ok. That would make it in the region of 1%. Thought my numbers were out of date since I heard 0.6% somewhere else.

1% of what?

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#404

Post by dx034 »

kqr wrote: post #341
sdkaufman wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Young People at the lowest risk from this virus are going to be much worse off than just catching a fucking bad cold. It's not a "fucking bad cold" for young people. - Over 50% of ICU patients in Netherlands from COVID-19 are under 50. [1] - Over 50% of ICU patients in France are under 60. [2] - Over 40% of patients requiring hospitalization in China were under 50. [3] Young people are not invincible. The fact that…

Those numbers measure the wrong thing. The proportion of young people in care means nothing without knowing also the proportion of young people infected.

Even if the number of young infected is much larger, it still means a significant number of young people need hospital treatment. A cold basically never needs hospital treatment. So it may not be deadly for the young but it's certainly not a bad cold.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#405

Post by dredmorbius »

dang wrote: post #116

It's probably best if we aggregate these links in one place rather than having a separate thread for each new location. (Similarly to what we did at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22550840 ) NYC: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22589463 California ("calls for", not enforced): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22587062 Others?

Something similar to Reddit's megathreads may well be useful for HN.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#406

Post by Grue3 »

JamesBarney wrote: post #347
ryanSrich wrote: post #312

This feels like a much worse outcome than just taking the virus on the chin and letting 40-70% of the population get sick. That may seem contrarian, but this panic feels worse than the actual virus. More people will die from economic hardship than from COVID.

You're talking about conceivably millions in the U.S. alone. 55% * 6% fatality rate * 330 million is >10,000,000. That's a lot of people to sacrifice to keep bars and restaurants open.

You're assuming that none of them would die if you keep bars and restaurants closed. There's no indication that this measure is effective at all.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#407

Post by marvin »

ryanSrich wrote: post #346
natalyarostova wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess people would rather lower the gdp than have their parents die.

Destroying the economy at this rate will bring much more death than Corona. 10s of thousands of businesses are being crippled. The government will do nothing aside from bailing out institutions they’ve bailed out countless times before. Leaving the lower and middle class absolutely gutted.

Rather an economic crisis than losing some of your loved ones a decade or two before their time. Get the authorities in place to be the safety net and take the measures required. Preventing a major GDP bump downwards is not worth millions of lives.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#408

Post by marvin »

JamesBarney wrote: post #358
ryanSrich wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6% where are you getting that number? The highest I’ve seen is 3% and that’s in people older than 80...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... So our best sets of data are the WHO analysis of Wuhan which puts it at 5.6%. And the diamond princess which gives us a 1% fatality rate. But here's the big catch, those infected on the Diamond Princess got all of the medical care they needed. And the issue is once our healthcare system gets overwhelmed the rate will shift from 1% up to the 5.6% (And Wuh…

Also, South Korea was around 1%. It's a number that has grown in credibility, unfortunately. I was hoping 0.1%.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#409

Post by [deleted] »

dillondoyle wrote: post #343
topkai22 wrote: post #144

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save. A 1% reduction in the ca…

I hate myself for saying this but if one wants a cold calculous thought experiment, what about thinking about the mortality age? mostly older people, not only don't work but are also often a net burden to society.

[deleted]

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#410

Post by dang »

dredmorbius wrote: post #405
dang wrote: post #116

It's probably best if we aggregate these links in one place rather than having a separate thread for each new location. (Similarly to what we did at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22550840 ) NYC: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22589463 California ("calls for", not enforced): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22587062 Others?

Something similar to Reddit's megathreads may well be useful for HN.

Can you link me to an example or two in practice?
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