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Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

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Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#371

Post by marvin »

easytiger wrote: post #357
acangiano wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, 2% is very dubious. Italy is at 7%. The Philippines at 8%. I mean, sure these figures are out of people who were tested, but 2% is looking awfully optimistic at this point. So the potential for death reduction is even greater than the intentionally unassailable 1% figure you picked.

Those tested represent a tiny fraction of those likely infected.

Yes. But South Korea is still at 0.6%, and they've tested everyone and their dog, and provided top care to everyone.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#372

Post by eeh »

rubicon33 wrote: post #206
Merad wrote: post #8

IMO the only question now is how long it takes the rest of the country to follow suite. Here in NC our governor announced the closing of all public schools on Friday, but I've heard from several friends that in my city (Raleigh) the downtown bars and restaurants were pretty much at normal capacity this weekend. I don't think the general public is going to truly take this seriously until they're told that they have to…

Just look at some of the comments in this very thread, calling for us to adopt the "UK model". It's clear that some people DO NOT see this as a threat worth worrying about. Shame on them, I say. They're probably the same idiots that show up to work sick, and cough without covering their mouth around others. A lot of people who apparently don't believe in biology, and don't have the ability to see past their own 2 fee…

The UK model also happens to be the Germany model: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856 .

The UK are focused on minimising deaths, by avoiding COVID-19 striking during next winter, when the NHS is at peak load due to winter flu. Instead, they will guide the first strike towards summer (NHS's least load), and impose measures to protect at-risk folk during that time.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#373

Post by eeh »

dkdk8283 wrote: post #131

I’m probably in the minority but I lean towards the UK model. My suspicion is that the mortality rate is lower due to inadequate testing. Call me a cynic but after 9/11 I’m weary of temporary measures that become permanent in one way or another.

I'm +1 on the UK's model for the UK. Different apporaches can be right for different countries: different health systems, different seasons, different levels of connectedness, ...

The UK's Chief Medical Officer is the right person for the job: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Whitty

If you want to hear him talk about the UK's plan, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfJcwDaZrsA is long but informative.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#374

Post by kd5bjo »

jader201 wrote: post #326
tathougies wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock prices don't really matter in the short-term, and we are lucky that the underlying financials are good, and that -- at the end of the largest bull run in history -- many of the largest companies have lots of cold hard cash. Apples hundreds of billions don't look so silly now, do they? Oh, BTW, the floor is hard-set at zero, which they'll never get to, since -- given there is no underlying financial issue, and t…

I think you’re overlooking the cascading effect of a lot of small businesses closing doors (voluntarily or involuntarily) while this blows over — not knowing how long it will take to blow over. Short of a bailout, that’s not going to be easy to recover from. And even a bailout won’t be enough to bring about a full recovery anytime soon.

One potential path here is:

- Local and state governments provide bailout funds to suffering local businesses

- Said governments issue new bonds to pay for this relief

- Fed uses the recently-announced QE funds to buy the government bonds

The question then becomes if communities can get organized enough to approve this, and then convince ratings agencies that the new bonds are good.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#375

Post by jobigoud »

trent09 wrote: post #360
mdorazio wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://i.redd.it/apxxmlc4kfm41.jpg

Interesting, but to truly track similar to Italy wouldn't we need higher numbers being we're a much larger populous? Just curious.

Each outbreak is regional, having the numbers normalised to the total country population doesn't really give interesting information. It is the medical system of that specific region that is at risk of saturation.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#376

Post by TheGallopedHigh »

boznz wrote: post #88

My Daughter was working as a temp between jobs and the work has now been stopped, she had two second interviews planned in Sydney this week now both positions have been retracted and nobody hiring or interviewing, she has about 7 weeks of cash savings and 4 months lease on a rental. Oh and no unemployment benefit or subsidies as she is New Zealander working in Australia. Young People at the lowest risk from this viru…

Any possibility she could head back to NZ? I guess the lease is stopping this right?

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#377

Post by AncientTree »

blueblisters wrote: post #359
kqr wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those numbers measure the wrong thing. The proportion of young people in care means nothing without knowing also the proportion of young people infected.

South Korea had a large proportion of young infected people: https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so...

They were part of a cult: https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/coronavirus-and-south-koreas...

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#378

Post by listsfrin »

saithound wrote: post #369
listsfrin wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never seen studies that say anything about "permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients". Where did you read this? "young patients, the ICU rate is as high as 10%." Any links?

Even the very first COVID-19 study [1] showed that 42% of the survivors (and _all_ of the deceased) treated in the Wuhan pulmonary hospitals experienced sepsis. Sepsis [3] causes tissue death all around the body, leading to permanent decrease in the function of the affected organs. Our ways of mitigating sepsis work only for bacterial infections, which COVID-19 isn't [2]. Sepsis aside, just plain pneumonia in adults…

Quotes from link 1

> Sepsis was a common complication, which might be directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection, but further research is needed to investigate the pathogenesis of sepsis in COVID-19 illness.

> 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients).

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#379

Post by nullc »

nvahalik wrote: post #213
nullc wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if we accept your premise, how many dollars in economic activity will be destroyed by the deaths of enormous numbers of working age people because the hospitals were overloaded and they couldn't get the critical care they needed?

Except "working age people" are pretty much not impacted by this. The massive death rates are for people with existing preconditions: heart disease, lung problems, etc. There have been no deaths with children. Practically speaking, the only thing a "working page person" (<60) could do is unknowingly spread the virus to someone else.

Sorry, I wish that were true. A non-trivial number of people under 60 year old also end up seriously ill and require critical care. In Wuhan half of all patients admitted to the ICU were age 25-49 ( https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... ).

For these younger people their prospects are good if they receive that care. An overloaded health system may be unable to provide that care to everyone who won't survive without it, including some younger people.

A tremendous number of working people also have preconditions which are implicated for covid19 including hypertension and obesity.

If you are a younger person and carelessly get an avoidable infection and end up in an overloaded hospital needing intensive care, your life may well be saved due to being triaged ahead of an older person with worse prospects. But in that case your life would be saved at the expense of someone else's. ... someone else who's infection might also be due to your spreading. I wouldn't be okay with that, and I hope you're not either. So I hope your glib attitude doesn't mean that you're not taking avoidable risks.

In the US there hasn't yet been clearly established ethical guidance to direct triaging like that. Your local hospital may assign ICU care first come first served... if so mortality rates there for younger people won't look so good.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#380

Post by easytiger »

marvin wrote: post #371
easytiger wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those tested represent a tiny fraction of those likely infected.

Yes. But South Korea is still at 0.6%, and they've tested everyone and their dog, and provided top care to everyone.

This is incorrect. As of the weekend gone past South Korea had tested 248,000 people out of a population of 50,000,000, with 8,086 +ve cases and 72 deaths.

There is a lot of memetic nonsense flying around about this online and this is part of it

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